Can I change my response?
Most of these are way too high. Mike Pence does not have a 1 in 21 shot at the Presidency; he doesn’t have that good a shot at a nomination. Kamala Harris does not have a 1-in-13 shot; she has near-vanished in the VP role.
Overall the total of these numbers is over eighty percent, which is just wrong. There is a much better than 20% chance that someone NOT on this list runs and wins.
The most likely single person is definitely Biden with probably like 40%. I think after the midterms DeSantis’s chances are up and Trump’s are down.
The OP finds your request meritorious and grants your wish. Who’ll it be?
Yeah, I didn’t see Florida overperforming for Republicans while the rest of the country under-performed. And so far, all of Trump’s picks are crashing and burning.
DeSantis should be the front-runner for Republicans. If the Republicans can’t shed themselves of Trump after this, they deserve to lose.
And yeah, Biden holding onto more seats than either Clinton or Obama did in their first midterm should mean that he’s the presumptive nominee in 2024 if he wants it and his health doesn’t deteriorate more. He needs to dump Harris, though. People will know the next six years will be risky in terms of his health, and he needs to have a VP who people are comfortable with taking over should Biden not be able to continue in office.
That would not be a good look at all. Can you say “Thomas Eagleton?”
It depends how it is done. She needs to discover that she needs to spend more time with her family or something. It can’t be an overt push to get her out, She has to agree for there not to be a backlash.
But if an 82 year old Biden runs for re-election, the key campaign argument from Republicans will be that he’s too old. Having a solid VP would do much to blunt that attack.
It’s not unprecedented, but the last President who ‘dumped’ his current vice-president in favor of a different running mate was FDR in 1944. Every President since then who ran for re-election kept his current VP.
And that list would actually include every President since FDR except Harry Truman, who didn’t have a VP during his first term, and LBJ, who also didn’t have a VP during his first (abbreviated) term.
Spiro Agnew, Richard Nixon’s VP, resigned in 1973. Slightly special case, as he had been indicted for bribery and tax evasion. He was replaced by Gerald Ford, who has the distinction of being the only person to become Vice President and then President without having been elected to either office.
But I agree, it’s an extreme move. The other option is to micromanage Harris and try to make her look better by then.
538 Polls show her as beating everyone but trump, and that is close- and beating all the other Dem possible candidates handily.
If trumpski is running, Biden pretty well has to.
Yep. Joe did good.
Harris is fine. She is solid, and does very well in the polls.
While Harris is more left of my position than I’m 100% happy with, I have no major objections to her. She also is helpful in somewhat appeasing the more leftmost members of the ‘liberal’ coalition who are otherwise unhappy that Biden is far too middle of the road to make them happy. So while there are other options, she’s probably a +/- zero, while switching her out would more likely cost at least a few votes.
Based entirely on a very, very murky crystal ball, and fully acknowledging everything that could change in the next 18ish months.
With permission from the OP, I’ll respond, my vote has not changed in the poll. DeSantis looks to be the new leader of the party. It looks like republicans will control at least the house, so Trump and Desantis will fight over the Maga base. That will be a short fight since the Maga candidates clearly lost.
So for 2024 I expect Desantis for the same reasons, he is just smart enough to know not to say the quite part out loud like the Trump Maga candidates. They are still going to do the same thing.
Harris hasn’t done anything noteworthy, but hasn’t done anything bad, either.
Dumping a VP LOOKS terrible. It’s a loser move. It would scream “we’re in trouble.” Unless there’s a good reason to do it, it’s pointless.
This is key. There are several quiet parts, and what’s important are which ones he believes but keeps quiet about for political purposes, and which ones he keeps quiet about because he honestly doesn’t believe them. The election denial stuff and what he believes about 1/6 are of particular importance there. In other words, is DeSantis an evil small d democrat, or is he an evil authoritarian? If he’s the former, he could successfully challenge Trump. If he’s the latter, he doesn’t stand a chance because Trump already claimed that ground.
As a Canadian watching from the outside, it seems to me the Democrats were the losers here. With a crook like Trump so attached to the party the Republicans should have been annihilated.
Yes, this is a bit weird. How can Dems just be treading water if the other side is so appalling? I mean, I think easily half the Republican politicians are so awful I would be mildly worried to learn they were allowed in the same public places I frequent. Now I’m hearing this was really a Democratic Party victory, because it wasn’t a red wave. Well. If we keep House and Senate, it’ll be a Dem victory, but this doesn’t seem probably. More likely, it’ll be a small Republican victory, which should not be happening.
Because, and not to be over simplistic, our nation is full of appalling people.
Really, that’s all there is to it. And, for the record, many on the other side, consider those who stand against ‘modern’ Republican standards to be appalling, horrible, no good, very bad people as well. I am pretty sure which side history will eventually come down on (should the current circumstances not ending up dooming us environmentally/etc) - but IMHO the US took 2 good steps forward under Obama, and then the reactionary right dragged it back behind the starting line with a meathook and hate.
And, for the record, I’ll point out that by no means is the US the only nation falling into smug pandering to bombastic national ‘pride’ and belief that only a strong man can ‘fix’ all our problems. Just possibly the most disappointing of those that have done so.
There are a nonzero number of conservative voters who want their politicians to say the quiet part out loud, repeatedly and proudly. That’s how we got Trump to begin with.
Yes, I do think this is it. To push things to the simplistic limit, all of this has happened because we elected a President whose father was black. I’ve heard that some people outside the US think of us as that country that had so much slavery. Now, increasingly, this is what I think from inside.
A comment from outgoing Pennsylvania Senator Pat Toomey, with a side of snark:
“Last night across the country was a terrible night for Donald Trump, and an excellent night for Governor DeSantis,” Toomey said. “The more MAGA a candidate was, the more they tended to underperform even in their own states.”
I wonder if Dr. Oz has a miracle pill for that burn…