On the GOP side, I think considering how close this election was, Mike Pence is a no-brainer.
Donald Jr. has made some noise about running. As much as they like his Dad, I’m inclined to think Trump supporters would prefer Pence instead.
Of the 2016 field, I’m thinking it will be Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Marco Rubio throwing their hats in the ring. Any up and coming Governors or Senators we should keep an eye on? I voted for Joe this year, is there a Republican you think might run I should keep an eye on if Biden fails (HAS to be pro-choice so good luck).
On the Dem side, Sleepy Joe will be 81 if he runs again. If he doesn’t would someone step up to challenge Kamala Harris for the Democrat nomination? Surely Bernie and Liz will be too old by then . . .
If I had to guess, should Joe not be up to running again, I would think he’d step down and let Kamala run as the incumbent. And I don’t think anyone would challenge her.
I have to believe when Kamala was selected her probable 2024 candidacy was one of the things foremost in their minds. I don’t think Uncle Joe has more than a one-and-done in mind, or at least I hope that’s the case.
I don’t think it’ll be Pence. He’s just sort of a guy. He hasn’t really done anything to become a conservative favorite. He was never integral to anyone’s perception of Trump, I don’t think Trump’s cultists will care about Pence. It’s probably going to be some guy who figures out how to use Trump’s brand of… whatever the fuck it is Trump does and rise suddenly out of nowhere to try to recapture that magic. I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump’s cultists attempt to make one of his kids the successor like it’s a fucking monarchy. It sounds absurd, but then everything about the worship of Trump is. It depends on how much he and his family is disgraced by post-election prosecution. It would be fitting if Biden pussies out and goes the “let’s all just move past this” route and lets Trump and his cronies off the hook, and then the Republicans annoint one of the Trump kids as their new savior and he comes back to beat Biden.
I would assume that if Biden steps down (due to age) then Harris would pretty much be running as the incumbent. As long as she avoids doing anything massively problematic, it seems like she’s the default favorite. Maybe Pete. I don’t think any of the other 2020 candidates are going to be significant in 4 years. Warren and Bernie will be too old. Yang is too one-issue and not really a politician. Corey Booker maybe, but if he didn’t get anywhere now, I don’t think there’s any reason to think he’ll get further then.
Rick Scott. Former governor and current senator of Florida. Navy veteran, former healthcare CEO, and venture capitalist. Pretty much a Republican poster boy. He’ll be 71 in 2024, so a bit old, but that seems to be the trend. He’s also had some controversy including a criminal investigation for overcharging Medicare and arranging kickbacks while he was CEO of Columbia/HCA in 1997, but he’s won three state elections since then.
Assuming Biden wins, I think the next big question is how the public perception of Trump shifts in the next four years. If his reputation collapses, any politician who was associated with him will be harmed by that association. Pence is the most obvious example.
But if the Trump base is still around, Pence has a reasonable shot. Pence has his own secure base among Christian conservatives. And he’s an Indianan, which will probably continue to be a battleground state.
If things go the other way and being associated with Trump harms candidates, I feel the Republicans will look for a candidate outside of Washington. Find a governor who can claim he never knew the man.
I 've heard a lot of conservatives claiming that Nikki Haley would be an ideal candidate. They claim that she would be irresistible to Democratic voters because she’s supposedly not white. I think they’re projecting their own point of view. I feel that Haley’s ethnicity would drive away a lot of Republican votes while attracting very few Democratic votes.
For the Republicans, I bet Donald Sr. gives it another try in a bid to become the next Grover Cleveland. If he doesn’t run, then the field will probably be closer to 10 than 20 candidates. Donald Jr., Rick Scott, Tom Cotton, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Nikki Haley seem like obvious choices. Maybe one or two relative moderates like Mitt Romney and John Kasich will run on a bring some sanity back to the party platform.
For Democrats Kamala Harris would be the obvious pick. Whether or not she gets challenged will be determined by how well Biden has done during his first three years.
I think there’s about 12 people who would challenge her. If Biden doesn’t run for reelection, the field is wide open.
On the Republican side, I think Nikki Haley runs, Tom Cotton courts the racist Trump movement, Mitt Romney runs (he’ll be 77), Ben Sasse runs. I think Pence sits it out.
The question about Harris, though, is what’s her path to the White House? The day Joe Biden announced for President, it was clear what his path was – carry the Clinton states and rebuild the “blue wall.” He would do so based on his strength with the working class white voters that Democrats spent the last four years wringing their hands over. And give-or-take an Arizona, if he becomes President, it will be because of this strategy. Maybe if he’d focused on it more strongly rather than getting distracted by fool’s errands like FL and TX he’d already be giving his acceptance speech.
So what’s Harris’ path? Same as Biden? I have a hard time seeing her replicate his skin-of-his-teeth success in WI and MI, or to improve much on however he ends up doing in PA. A “new south” strategy to bring NC and GA into the Democratic fold? Maybe, but its not enough if she can’t hold onto the blue wall. Flip Texas? 2024 will be about the fifth consecutive election where Democrats are “on the verge” of “turning Texas purple.” And Texas will have had at least two years of complete Republican control of state governance to entrench themselves. Bet it all on Florida? Just no.
That’s not at all to count her out and a lot can change in four years. But if Biden decides not to run I don’t think she’ll clear the field in a primary or have an easy path to the White House.
You snipped off the important part of my quote. I said, I would think Biden would step down if he’s not going to run, making her the incumbent. And if she’s the incumbent, I don’t think anyone challenges her.
And I think that would make it worse - it would look like a failed administration with a President who resigned. An incumbent President Harris would fail miserably in an election, and the DNC would strongly advise against it.
Tend to agree. Any accession other than for Biden suffering a disabling infirmity would “prove right” all the RW allegations that the Biden-Harris ticket was a smokescreen to sneak her in.
Besides, abdication to handpick your successor is something I’d expect more of the current occupant.
I expect Biden will run barring a real health crisis, a big scandal, or a big disaster that he’s blamed for. I expect the GOP will nominate a Trump, possibly former Prez Trump.
It wouldn’t be about a particular path for her. At that point it will be a referendum on how the next 3 - 4 years went / are going. If Covid-19 is no longer an issue and the economy is doing well, then she’s in a good position, assuming she isn’t running against Trump or Trump Jr.
If Biden chooses no to run and Kamala is the de facto successor, you can damn well bet there will be a huge primary challenge from the left. I also bet there will be challengers from the right, maybe Pete. People will have a number of theories on the problems in 2020, some will say we’re too centrist, some will say we’re losing too many suburbanites or minorities. Who knows. I don’t see a scenario where Kamala gets the nom by acclimation.
Also, zero chance that Pence is the GOP nom. No one in that party likes him. If not for Trump, his political career was basically over in 2016. Democrats should PRAY for a Pence candidacy and primary win, that would probably be a landslide.
Tom Cotton seems the logical successor to take the torch from Trump. He embodies all the viciousness of Trump but is far more competent than him, and probably has perfectly-clean tax returns, etc. In a certain sense, he’d be even more Trump than Trump.
No way Pence will run. The guy is as boring as plain white bread and is a far better bureaucrat than actual politician; furthermore, I don’t think he even has the ambition.