At this moment, it appears a good possibility that it will be Trump vs. Biden in the 2024 election
And there are now two threads (DeSantis and Carlson) in which at least part of the discussion concerns Trump’s choice as VP for the 2024 campaign. So, I thought that perhaps we need a separate thread to talk about the VP choices, for both parties.
In the abovementioned threads, Kari Lake is getting some strong consideration for the GOP. If she could deliver Arizona for Trump, that would be a huge win.
Will Harris again be the running-mate for Biden? Any reason not to pick her? What about Governor Whitmer from Michigan? If she was on the ticket and elected vice-president, that would be a natural springboard for a 2028 presidential run.
She lost by 17,000 votes in an election that had 2.5 million voters. And although she ran as a Trumper, she wasn’t running on the same ticket, or even the same election cycle, as Trump. And she remains in the public eye. Trump won a close race in 2016 and lost a close race in 2020. It’s possible that Lake could tip the scales back to his side. I’m not predicting such, but it is possible.
For Trump, I really can’t see that any criteria is more important than personal loyalty. Kari Lake probably meets that. Or maybe Don jr, in the interest of starting a dynasty.
I’d say that loyalty is as important to Trump as looks. Given all the attractive women he had working in the White House, I’d think that he’d select Lake for her looks as much as her personal fidelity to him or her political strength in Arizona. Remember, he’s as shallow as he is crooked.
No way Harris will be replaced (barring a new massive scandal or serious health incident). I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Kari Lake or MTG as Trump’s running mate.
As others have said, there’s no reason for the Democrats to replace Harris.
As for Trump (assuming he gets the nomination which I feel is unlikely) I feel he’ll be isolated enough from the party that he won’t feel the need to take any advice from mainstream Republican establishment. He’ll choose the candidate he wants.
He won’t want another man because he’ll worry people will compare them and he’ll feel threatened by that. He’ll want a woman because he’ll feel a woman won’t overshadow him. Trump feels a woman’s primary value is her looks so he’ll want somebody he finds attractive. And he’ll want somebody who he feels will be blindly loyal to him.
So I agree either Kari Lake or Marjorie Taylor Greene will be Trump’s pick.
Of those two I think that Lake is the more likely pick, unless she is committed to running for senator. Lake is more attractive which, as others have said, is of highest importance in Trumps view. Also it must be clear to Trump that Greene is dumber than a box of hammers, and her craziness might be even a bit strong even for Trump. The craziness of Lake on the other hand is primarily focused on the stolen election nonsense which is 90% of Trumps platform. So she would seem to be the ideal backup singer.
Usually I just think — underestimating the adversary again — with no evidence. But here I do have evidence — Mike Pence.
Donald’s problem with Pence is loyalty, not gender or looks.
But the problem with picking a veep on the basis of loyalty is that the President has no real way to enforce the loyalty, especially a second term President. So Trump will be forced to pick someone he hopes will be more loyal but knows he can’t be sure of.
Kari Lake is a possibility, but having lost is too big a negative. Tim Scott is possible. Maybe Scott would turn it down. Or maybe he’s was already thinking VP when he decided to run for the big job.
And Trump may conclude there is no real way to secure loyalty, so he might as well pick someone who will appeal to true swing voters. Nikki? Or it could be a sitting GOP governor. Thinking it will be a super-MAGA type is wishful thinking.
Noem is beyond ordinary crazy. She’s so nuts that if you squeeze her, peanut butter comes out of her mouth. But she’s not a loser. Kari Lake is a loser. MTG won her seat but still manages to be a loser. Trump will not allow a loser to be mentioned in the same sentence as him. Normally Trump would not give the position to someone smart and ambitious. He requires an absolute non-entity. But he truly believes that a woman can’t be president, which makes her a non-entity in his mind.
Noem may be crazy but is she the Trump brand of crazy?
Trump’s probably made at Noem because she wouldn’t put his face on Mount Rushmore (yes, he did ask her to). But the bigger problem is that Noem apparently has presidential ambitions of her own; she doesn’t want to run with Trump, she wants to be Trump.
Biden: Kamala Harris
Trump: If Trump runs the campaign like he did in 2016, I’m going to go with Ron Johnson, Senator from Wisconsin. Trump has to pull EVs from either the upper midwest or Atlantic seaboard. Johnson won re-election despite his abortion stance. He could probably pick up Minnesota too so there are 20 new EVs. If he can steal Michigan also, we are looking at +36EVs over 2020 which if Trump doesn’t lose any of his states puts him at 268 - one state, any state from victory.
As for Noem, have you heard her interviews? She makes Sarah Palin sound like a Rhodes scholar.
It focused on an issue this is going to hurt the GOP a bit, abortion. But I failed to see where she sounded unintellectual compared to Palin. Noem seemed to me to do as good a job as is practical when advocating a such an unpopular position.
She’s probably not the strongest possible Trump pick, but she’s a real possibility who wouldn’t bring him down.
True. That’s why I put in a caveat to make her acceptable to Trump.
I believe Trump cares less about who the VP will be than he does about his next golf round. His handlers will make the decision by handing him a list of crazies and non-entities and then choosing someone who didn’t get crossed off. He will thereafter proceed to ignore their existence.
Nor does it matter, except to cable news shows and the blathersphere. Essentially zero evidence exists that any VP candidate made any difference in any race, even the very close ones. Pence and Harris are proof that the post is an accident of history. Biden was chosen because of his endless years in the Senate which supposedly made him a person who would deal with them to get things done. Remember how that worked out? But Obama did work closely with him, something that works in their favor.
A VP candidate is essential to only three things: 1) Internet talk; 2) taking over in case of death, which hasn’t happened in 60 years; and 3) the Future. The Democrats invested in Gore and Biden as future candidates and won at least the popular vote with each. Republicans put up people like Sarah Palin, Dick Cheney, and Dan Quayle, none of whom had realistic future hopes.* I don’t believe for a second that a right-of-MAGA crazy like Noem has a future in national politics. Therefore she’s a realistic possibility.
*Clinton picked Tim Kaine, who has vanished like Amelia Earhart. Another mistake on her part.
The logical choice is Haley, but that’s a silly way to do things. So Hershel Walker or Megyn Kelly.
I’d love to see Whitmer run with Biden, but that’s not gonna happen. Largely because the last thing Biden wants to project is instability. Harris is fine though I doubt she could win at the top of the ticket, down the road. Democrats are taking a massive risk running out old Joe (he turns 82 in November, 2024) for a second term. Has the VP slot ever been this important, statistically speaking?
There certainly is: she is unelectable as President in 2028. And considering Biden’s age there is a significant chance she could become President as a result of his death–and lots of people don’t want this.
Possibly. But that changes nothing. Biden committed to her and there is no backing out without taking political damage. Naked realpolitik strategizing, particularly in terms of dumping a female POC, is frowned upon by too large a segment of the electorate for such a switch to be worth the anger it would cause.
I wouldn’t have picked Harris in the first place. But Biden did and that die is cast.