Let’s say Trump runs in 2024–a leap, I know, but the alternative is he doesn’t, and then he screws the race up for whoever does by dithering and attacking other candidates and teasing, etc.
So GOP: Trump.
Dems: Let’s assume Biden runs for now.
What happens if Liz Cheney or Adam Kinzinger or some Old Formula GOPer runs?
I’d speculate Dems get 45%, trump-GOP gets 30% and 3rd Party gets 25%. Biden cleans up in the EC.
My thinking is that Liz Cheney (say) will draw some votes from Biden (GOPers who hate to vote Democratic) but mainly draw votes away from Trump.
I think she’ll view it as a suicide mission, but one that will doom Trump so it’s OK with her.
But do you see this scenario playing out otherwise? It’s a long ways off, I know, and anything can happen, but if you assume my scenario how does it play out?