I think that there are very few people who won’t vote for Biden solely, or even primarily because of a fear that Harris might become president.
Well one side of the OP is confirmed.
Biden has just announced for his re-elect campaign
No love for Tucker Carlson here?
The Democrats tried this sort of thinking in 1988 with ads (IIRC, right before the election) that pretty much said, “Do you really want Dan Quayle one heartbeat away from the Oval Office?”
As for Trump’s chances of winning, it may come down to how the states decide how its primaries are run. Unlike the Democrats, where all of the primaries have to be run the same way (anyone who gets 15% of the vote in a state/district gets a proportional share of the statewide/district’s delegates), the Republicans let the states do pretty much whatever they want, except that they can’t have any sort of winner-take-all primaries before mid-March (well, that’s “the quick version,” anyway).
One way the Republicans can shoot themselves in the foot:
- Trump wins the nomination;
- Trump’s running mate choice is so contentious that there is serious support for a second choice;
- Instead of a roll call, the chair announces a motion to suspend the rules and name the Trump choice as the VP candidate by acclamation;
- Apparently, the Republicans only require a majority vote to suspend the rules (Democrats require 2/3), so even if enough Trump delegates don’t like his VP choice to give the alternative the majority, the chair will simply claim that the voice vote was in favor of the Trump choice.
Biden has released his first Campaign ad.
It’s pretty badass, in my unsolicited estimation, but it’s also abundantly clear that he has selected Kamala Harris as his running mate. It seems to me that he’s seeking the “Obama turnout” amongst minority groups, and Kamala perhaps serves as a lasting reminder of that connection.
(I also suspect that she may become our President in the second term if the ticket is re-elected, and I predict that history will judge her an excellent chief executive - just a hunch).
Totally irrelevant. All that matters to Trump is slobbering loyalty.
Dwight Eisenhower had a heart attack during his first term, followed nine months later by a bowel obstruction which required a colonostomy. These events were made public, but Eisenhower ran for for reelection and won, again with Richard Nixon as his running mate. Eisenhower then suffered a small stroke in 1957, but finished out his second term with no other major problems.
I love how you phrased this.
Carry on.
Æthelstan’s reign after Edmund I’s death was pretty important, that’s true.
Oh — Truman, as FDR was ailing. Yes.
Carry on. I’ll shut up now.
Trump picked a Sensible Republican as his running mate before. He’s not about to choose Kari Lake or MTG this time out. They would pose unwanted competition for his signature brand of crazy.
Noem might be just the kind of VP fodder he’s looking for.
Thomas Friedman has an opinion piece in the NY Times today (probably paywalled) about Harris as VP, which also includes a few thoughts about potential Trump VP picks. He is essentially arguing that, because of these particular candidates (i.e. Biden’s age and Trump’s polarizing nature), the VP choice is more important than usual.
We are always told that, in the end, people vote for the candidate for president, not for vice president. But because Biden would be 86 at the end of a second term — and therefore the chance of his health failing is not small — people will be asked to vote as much for his vice president as for him, maybe more than in any other election in American history.
If the 2024 race comes down to Biden vs. Trump again, we are going to need those independents and moderate Republicans to show up again. But this time around, because of his age and the possibility that he might not be able to finish a second term, Biden’s vice president will be much more consequential in their minds.
It’s no secret that Vice President Harris has not elevated her stature in the last two-plus years. I don’t know what the problem is — whether she was dealt an impossible set of issues to deal with, or is in over her head, or is contending with a mix of sexism and racism as the first woman of color to serve as vice president. All I know is that doubts among voters about her abilities to serve as president, which were significant enough for her to quit as a presidential candidate even before the Iowa caucuses in 2020, have not gone away.
Given the stakes, Biden needs to make the case to his party — and, more important, to independents and moderate Republicans — why Harris is the best choice to succeed him, should he not be able to complete his term. He cannot ignore this issue, because that question will be on the minds of many voters come election time.
At the same time, Harris has to make the case for herself, ideally by showing more forcefully what she can do.
And beware. Trump is no fool. If he’s the G.O.P. nominee, I can easily see him asking a more moderate Republican woman, like Nikki Haley, to be his running mate, knowing that her presence on the ticket could be an incentive that gives at least some of those Republicans and independents who are down on Trump an excuse to plug their noses and vote for him another time.
Make no mistake, the vice presidency is really going to matter in an election that is really going to matter.
Yeah, that decision is basically saying:
“I don’t want to vote for Biden because he’s ancient and may die, making Harris the VP. I think I’ll vote for an equally old Trump instead, and whatever lunatic he’s picked for his VP.”
I don’t see many people actually thinking about that, and coming to the decision that it’s the right decision to make. Of course most people don’t actually think, so who knows? That might seem like a major concern for someone, if they don’t actually consider the alternative.
I think more important about Harris/Biden is that they’re both incumbents. They can lean into the experience as President/VP in their campaign stuff- Harris is an experienced VP- she’s ready and capable of stepping in for Biden if anything happens, unlike whatever howling crazy person the GOP nominates to be VP.
The worst thing would be for the GOP to nominate a decidedly moderate Republican for VP- the likelihood that Trump might die or get impeached again is significant, so the VP choice would be a serious consideration, and might actually swing some voters who don’t like Trump, but who are hoping for him to only be in office a year or two and then the VP takes over.
I’m not sure I’m following you here. Are you saying Kristi Noem is a sensible Republican?
A male at age 82 has a life expectancy of 6.77 years, so statistically speaking Biden has a better than even chance of serving out his term. (And Biden appears to be healthier than the average 82 year old - no sign of heart disease or lung issues.)
Compared to the other two, she fits the profile of Sensible Republican.
*note the use of capital letters denoting sarcasm.
Now is it that she hasn’t elevated her status, or we’re told (by the media) that she hasn’t done so?
There are a hundred reasons why Trump won’t allow DeSantis onto the ticket with him, but one of them is that the Presidential and Vice-Presidential candidates cannot be residents of the same state (well they can, but then that state cannot cast its votes for both of them). This normally isn’t a problem, one of them just needs to establish residency elsewhere before the election. Dick Cheney – who was a Texas resident when W chose him for his running mate – had to change his residence back to Wyoming.
Trump – who has only been a Florida resident for a couple years and could easily change his residence to anywhere he owns property – will absolutely refuse to change his residence. And DeSantis can’t very well change his residence as the incumbent Governor of Florida.
We’re already seeing a concerted effort by the White House apparatus to heighten Harris’ Q rating with the public. Here’s what’s happened this week.
Count on it. She’ll have something scheduled almost every day that will generate a favorable headline either of a position that Democrats favor or a meeting with someone famous or a funeral, probably first Belefonte’s. Eighteen months of that. She’ll have less energy than Biden by the election.
Great question, and I definitely think media portrayal of Harris (and anyone) plays a big part in public perception. That said, the polls are what the polls are, and according to the article I posted:
The most recent FiveThirtyEight average of all the Biden-Harris approval polls found that 51.9 percent of Americans disapprove of Harris’s job performance and 40 percent approve
If that’s accurate, then yes I think she has some work to do to elevate her status.
I can see the campaign slogan now: “Vote for Joe Biden! He has a better than 50/50 chance of surviving his term!”
And Biden does not look healthier than the average 80 year old. My father in law toured Germany with us when he was 80, and you couldn’t tell by his walk or manner or speech or anything else that he wasn’t 60. My grandfather was still working his farm in his late 70’s, and some of his brothers kept working their farms into their late 80’s.
Biden stiffly shuffling along on the arm of his wife is not the picture of vibrancy.
Besides, the proper measure isn’t whether Joe can survive the four years, but whether he can do the job. Being alive in a nursing home doesn’t help.
Getting to running mates: Unless they can come up with a convincing reason for Kamala to leave and she agrees with it, she’s not going anywhere. Getting rid of her now would not be a good look for the base. So I think it’s Joe/Kamala.
For Trump (God, I hope it’s someone else…), I think he understands that he only gets one term, and if he wants to be remembered in history he has to build some kind of legacy. That means that his key requirements for a running mate will be:
- Complete devotion to Saint Donald.
- Electable after Trump times out.
- Will carry on ‘Trumpism’. Not so much in policy, as that doesn’t really matter to Trump. But the whole image, the MAGA stuff, etc. So he needs someone bombastic and charismatic, who doesn’t have their own agenda.
I don’t really know who fits that bill. Someone like Pence or Nikki Haley will begin distancing themselves from Trump the moment they can, and he probably knows that. Someone like MTG is unelectable on their own.