Nobody runs against a poll. They ran against human opponents. In our polarized world nationally everyone starts with 50% axiomatically against. Then the race is on to keep every single person who is potentially favorable and try to get them to the polls. The voting booth polls, not the Gallup polls.
Actually, I thought of the perfect VP candidate for Trump: Ron DeSantis. If DeSantis can’t beat Trump this time around, it would make a lot of sense for him to be VP. Trump can only run for one term, so DeSantis would be guaranteed to be the front-runner for the nomination in 2028, and Trump would have no problem puffing him up and supporting him since he can’t run again anyway.
The only two things against this scenario is that 1) Trump might think DeSantis will overshadow him, which would be intolerable to a guy like Trump, and 2) DeSantis might look at Pence and realize that being VP to Trump is a high risk move that could sink him.
Still, if DeSantis is losing big to Trump in the early nomination battles, this is a deal that would help both of them, and consolidate the Republicans.
Well, I didn’t say it was a disaster, so … yay? I would certainly be happier if her (and Biden’s) approval/disapproval ratings were swapped, though. And I definitely approve of concerted White House efforts to tout their achievements over the last two years in an effort to turn those numbers around.
ISTM that he’s entirely motivated by grievance, and every decision he makes is about punishing and humiliating those he deems as his enemies, with no thought at all to long term consequences, but YMMV.
So let’s swap them. According to fivethirtyeight.com Biden’s approval is at 42.6% with 53.2% disapproval.
That approval polls no longer have any meaning is perhaps a bit strong. But they must be read in the new political context in which 40 is the new 50. If either Biden or Harris get up to 45% approval their handlers will cheer. Nobody should expect that or care if doesn’t happen. Whoever they run against will have the same approval deficit.
Sorry, I was not as clear as I wanted to be. I meant I would like it if both Biden and Harris’ approvals/disapprovals would swap, so they were both 51+% approval, 40% disapproval. (I realize this is not likely, but a boy can dream.)
So Biden and Harris running against Trump and Trump’s VP pick. We’ve seen how that turns out. Is there any reason to think Trump can win in 2024 when he couldn’t win as an incumbent in 2020?
The obvious ones: Biden is four years older than he was then, he has been president and people don’t like what they see (70% of Americans want someone else for President), and Kamala Harris has now been Vice President and has underwhelmed pretty much everyone with her performance.
Also, there’s the Hunter Biden dirty launry which is finally being aired, and Biden has to run on an actual record, not promising to be everything to everyone. Remember how he was going to be a uniter and calm everything down? A lot of people voted for him as a return to ‘normal’, who may not feel things have been that normal of late.
That said, I have no idea who will win the next election. I don’t know how anyone can still support Trump, but then I can’t imagine supporting Biden, either. These have to be the worst major party candidates in American history.
Lets face it, Sam, you’re seeing things from the viewpoint of a conservative. I think most people feel that things have returned to normal from what was widely seen as the non-normal state of affairs under Trump.
And while people may not be delighted with Biden, I don’t feel Trump has won over any support since 2020 that he didn’t have then. And Trump is four years older too and is facing his own scandal problems. So I stand by what I said; if Trump couldn’t beat Biden in 2020, there’s no reason to think he can beat Biden in 2024.
I don’t feel Biden is unbeatable. I think DeSantis has a good shot. But I don’t feel Trump does, regardless of who either man chooses as their running mate.
People are speculating ahead to the 2028 election. If Biden wins in 2024, Harris becomes the presumptive front-runner for the 2028 Democratic nomination and some folks are uneasy about her ability to carry a future presidential race. So some of those some folks would prefer someone else on the ticket.
Burt that’s not going to happen barring a truly extraordinary change in events and 2028 is a long way off in political terms. So…shrug, I suppose. We shall see.
People are asking what Harris did as VP? Seriously? Can you name one thing Pence did as VP? Didn’t think so.
It’s going to be Harris for the Democrats, of course. Assuming the orange fool gets the nomination, I look for Kari Lake. He’s probably looking for a woman and if so, the primary qualification from his point of view is whether he thinks she’s hot. If he opts for a male- maybe the pillow dude.
Yeah, I was mentioning in the other thread, the function of the VP is to Just Be There and not distract attention from POTUS. Of course at Year 3 of a first term there will be not much to show for it.