Who would Iran be likely to nuke?

The current fear is that Iran is going to make nuclear weapons.

Who would be a likely target?


Hopefully only anyone who would attack them. Since Israel, a long time foe has nukes, Iran wants the capability too. I’m giving them the benefit of not being so stupid as to actually want one as a first strike weapon. Please let that assumption be warranted.

I think that’s correct. Iran certainly must be looking at their Partners in Evil, Iraq and North Korea, and realizing that the one that actually has WMD’s isn’t occupied by an invading force.

No one, probably.

Nuclear weapons are really only useful as a deterrent.

Israel might be the most likely target, but that doesn’t make it a likely target in any absolute sense. Just a less unlikely target. Do you really think the clerics are keen on having Israel turn their country into a radioactive wasteland? Iran might be able to launch a couple nukes at some indefinite point in the future. Right now Israel is capable of hitting Iran with dozens and possibly hundreds of warheads. The Iranians are perfectly aware of this, and have shown no evidence of being suicidal. I’d think a nuclear-capable Iran would be at least 4th on the list of countries likely to actually use their arsenal, after NK sitting away out in front followed by Pakistan and India who might yet have an escalation along the border get out of hand.

Well, Iraq.

They’ve gone to war before and are none too fond of each other.

They’ve had extremist zealots take over in the recent past, so I think it’s more a matter of not who they’d nuke, but if the folks holding the trigger are able to control it.

Well, they might shoot their I out with it, then the’d just be Ran.
Okay, I got nuthin.

I’d disagree. They may be extremist nutcases, but they’re not suicidal.

A nuclear strike is only a messier way to put a pistol in you mouth.

As stupid as it was, MAD worked.

That’s a pretty big I. According to my atlas, it must be at least fifty miles long.
Don’t get me started on how the poor people of Tehran have to live next to a giant R like that.

Yeah, it is an R of unusual size isn’t it?

Israel. But I doubt they’d get the chance.

Only if they could get to orbit, because it’s the only way to be sure.

I don’t believe in R’s of unusual size.

Maybe they’ll ship their nukes out to terrorist factions who can operate from without the state itself, safe-guarding Iran itself against destruction?

Think about that for a moment.

  1. Iran gives [Generic Wacko Front] a nuke.
  2. GWF sets nuke off in Israel.
  3. Using simple logic, Israel figures out GWF got the nuke from Iran.
  4. Israel turns Iran into a radioactive sheet of glass.
    Reward: Israel gets hurt… bad.
    Risk: Your country get totally destroyed in retalitory strikes from Israel and her allies (US, England and France).

With apologies to Tom Lehrer…

Beyond that my best guess is that Iran is looking at obtaining nukes as magical ‘get out of jail free’ cards. Have them? Get respect and don’t get invaded (North Korea). Don’t have them? Get your ass kicked and wait for the war crimes trial (Iraq).

I’d want them, too, in that circumstance.

If there was no substantial evidence as to the origin of the nukes, would Israel get away with retaliating against Iran? I imagine that the fallout from an Iranian device would smell pretty much the same as that from a Russian one, no? As an ally of the USA, wouldn’t Israel have to have something more solid than using simple logic?

Pretty much. Nuclear weapons = instant respect on the world stage. Once you get them, you become a “player,” so to speak. Especially on the world stage.