I know this is a standard financial planning question, but bear with me…
For those that might be unfamiliar, the gist of these products is that you’re sold a very expensive life insurance policy that accumulates cash value over time that is equal to the sum of your premiums less commissions, fees, expenses, and the cost of insurance. This value accumulates non-guaranteed but historically-regular dividends hovering somewhere just above the returns on AAA bonds (right now it’s around 4.2%, I believe). The selling point is basically threefold: first, the accrual of cash value through the dividends is untaxed as are the ultimate death benefits, and you can essentially take out distributions of the cash value as loans which can ultimately be paid by the death benefit; second, you can use the cash value as collateral to take out relatively low-interest rate loans from the bank (without actually lowering the value of the collateral, so it continues to collect dividends), resulting in what has historically been the ability to essentially borrow money for free (since the rate of return is higher than the interest rate); and third, your cash value never decreases, so it represents a very low-risk investment comparable to a bond index but with historically slightly-better returns.
The conventional wisdom on these products is that the sales pitch above is pretty much bullshit; they are not worth it for 99% of people, and that it is better to buy term life and invest the difference. Among the many downsides are that if you become unable to afford the premiums in the early years of the policy, you’ll have to take the cash value which will be less than what you’ve paid in (you’re not really in the black until a decade or more into the policy). Moreover, they’re extremely complicated and non-transparent–you have no way of knowing in advance how much of your premium will make its way to the cash value each year (and not end up in fees or changing costs of insurance), and no way of knowing what kind of dividend will get paid.
So are there people for whom these products are rational purchases?
Consider the following scenario:
[ul]
[li]Johnny Earner is maxing his 401k and is ineligible for Roth (so his other retirement investments will all be taxed at whatever rates prevail decades from now).[/li]
[li]Johnny Earner anticipates that capital gains and income taxes will be higher in the future, maybe even higher than they are for current income even accounting for lower income brackets at retirement–at a minimum, Johnny Earner wants to hedge slightly against this possibility.[/li]
[li]Johnny Earner’s investment portfolio will include at least some lower-risk, lower-return investments anyway, so the risk/return comparator here is probably bond funds.[/li]
[li]Johnny Earner is safe in the assumption that he will be able to pay the premiums at least until the cash value exceeds the premiums paid.[/li]
[/ul]
So would the conventional wisdom apply to such a fellow? Are the premises in the sales pitch misleading or wrong? Are there downsides not listed above?
[In case it matters, I am not in the position of our hypothetical fellow for one or more of the premises. Just asking academically.]