Who's The Underdog?

I don’t understand how the NFL Team with the best record in football can STILL be the underdog??? Please explain why being #1 isn’t good enough!

You mean the Eagles? Easy - their starting quarterback got a season-ending injury late in the season.

The Eagles were shut out by the Cowboys the last week of the season and have struggled to score more than 15 points in most of their games since Carson Wentz went down late in the season. In the playoffs, 15 points is usually not enough to win.

What everyone - including me - failed to understand about the Eagles is how damn good and flexible their coaching is. It’s better than I imagined. The Eagles are extremely well-coached. I’ve noticed significant developments since Nick Foles became the starting QB: 1) The Eagles coaching staff adapted to suit Nick Foles’ strengths and tendencies as a player; and 2) they have clearly worked with Foles in becoming a better pocket passer. When he first took over, they had to try to work in some plays and techniques that had worked under Chip Kelly. But they’ve also clearly worked with Foles in checking off receivers and staying in the pocket.

New England is used to having the coaching advantage but they will have their hands full in Super Bowl 52.

The seed is based on your team’s record for the year.

The betting line is based on how bettors perceive how your team is playing today.

Thanks, all! As you can tell, I merely dabble in matters of sports. I appreciate the insight!

Maybe edit war the title to clarify?!
Don’t follow the NFL, but a quick look on Wiki shows that the Patriots have won 2 out of the last 3 Super Bowls. Of the the 16 games since 2002*,they have reached 8. Not sure if the other team has reached any in the same time. It’s obvious why perennial contenders are favoured over Johnny-come-lately.

*Though all of the Patriot’s games since 2002 have been close, win or lose 3/4 points. Only last years game had a larger margin, 6 points.

He was asking why the Eagles were underdogs against the Vikings in the NFC championship game. The Eagles were the #1 seed but were the underdog in the game.

Both the Patriots and Eagles were seeded at #1 so there’s no seeding issue with the Super Bowl.

And that, only because the game ended on a touchdown in overtime.

Yes that’s the most common misconception in sports. People think the experts are analyzing the teams to pick who is going to win. They are actually analyzing the bettors and how they will bet. After 60-70 years of this they have gotten very good at it.

The betting line is based on what the odds maker believes will make 50% of the people bet for one team and 50% of the people bet for the other. Then it will adjust throughout the week to maintain the split. A 50\50 split is the only way bookies (or casinos) are guaranteed to make money. Oddsmakers don’t give a shit who wins.

The Patriots have a big advantage lately. They are in a very weak division which pretty much guarantees a spot on the playoffs. Once you get there then anything can happen.

Another big advantage is they have Tom Brady. He is arguably the best quarterback of all time. Currently there is only one other close to him that is currently playing and he was injured most of the year. Most of the time if your team leading with 40 seconds and 80 yards to go you feel pretty good about the outcome. If it’s Tom Brady it almost feels like you are behind and he’s guaranteed to march them down the field.

And the are perceived to have the best coach in football. And I believe he is.

Throughout their current dynasty period the quality of their team has varied. They have always been much better than the other teams in their division but not necessarily in the whole league. Earlier in the year I thought the Eagles would run away with it. They are a strong team and were playing great all year. Then they lost their quarterback. That usually kills a team. They were smart enough to have a good experienced backup. Most teams can’t afford to have a veteran in that spot. This week’s performance showed that Nick Foles can still play. This will keep the betting tight but even at 40 Brady is a big factor.

The opening line had the Patriots favored by 5.5.

There’s always a conference champion going to the Super Bowl that’s the underdog. Sometimes the best team record correlates with the overdog, but not always. This year their records are the same but one of them will still be the underdog. Even if the Eagles had won that last game and had a better record the Pats would probably still be favored.

Though, some of the people placing those bets are the experts who actually are analyzing the true probabilities (or as close to true as they can get), and if those analyzed probabilities get too out of line with the Vegas line, they’ll place large bets, which will tend to pull the line closer to the true probabilities. So the Vegas line will typically end up being at least an approximation to the true probabilities.

And then there’s always the possibility (one hopes very rare) that some of the bettors have knowledge about the outcome of the game that they shouldn’t have, and bet accordingly. This will push the Vegas line even closer to the true outcome… unless those people with knowledge they shouldn’t have are in cahoots with the Vegas bookies, in which case it’ll push the line the other way.

Vikings -3 1/2

It’s all about perception. Brady vs a backup. Tons of amateurs betting on the Super Bowl and swinging the odds. When there is a California team in and lots of fans can take a ride to Vegas to bet it changes the line. When a team like Dallas with a big fan base is in it changes where the money goes. There are lots of factors outside of what the actual score is going to be. They are really not that accurate at predicting the final outcome.

http://www.bettingtalk.com/nfl-numbers-oddsmakers-sh/

Yeah, I never said it was a particularly great approximation.