SDMB NFL Betting Thread

The Game Room
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1

I have given in to the zeitgeist and decided to adopt this new hobby…actually, I pursued it a bit many years ago with fair results. For the time being, I am only wagering amounts less than a dollar, but if results are good…who knows? Anyone else have any tips or picks to share? Surely the SDMB hive mind should be able to beat the books!

I have devised a system for betting on NFL games which I will be trying out the remainder of this season. I have identified ten betting systems which I have some reason to believe have been profitable in recent years (most of which I have culled from various websites and, with one exception, only one of which I have verified on my own). I will only be picking games which reflect the consensus of several of these systems.

The ones which can be summed up in one sentence are as follows, and I’ll post the others when I have more energy if there seems to be interest.

Bet on any team that is in the top 10 in rushing, rushing D, and overall D.

Bet on road underdogs with a losing record.

Bet on any team that lost by 21 or more points last week.

Bet home teams with a winning home record if they are favored, but by less than 3 points.

Bet the underdog in any game where the under is 42 points or less. DOUBLE if it’s a divisional game.

Bet against home favorites who were road dogs last week.

Bet against road favorites who were home dogs last week.

I hope to work out a similar system for the NBA in the near future.

This week’s picks, for entertainment value only:

Money Line: Chiefs -245, Bucs -142 , Niners -305

Against the Spread: Niners -7, Patriots +9, Cardinals +7.5, Giants +2.5, Browns -3, Rams -3

2

I think it might be useful to explain the reasoning behind some of these bets?

3

I believe it’s the systems he described that leads to those bets. For example, throwing his money away on the hapless Giants would be because:

Bet the underdog in any game where the under is 42 points or less. DOUBLE if it’s a divisional game. (I’m seeing an over/under of 40.5, Washington favored by 2.5.)

In fairness, this is finally a winnable game for the Giants, so who knows. The murderers’ row is over. (Now it’s the Eagles’ turn in the barrel.)

4

You’re right. I meant explaining the reasoning behind the systems. Though connecting the bets to the relevant systems might be good for discussion, too.

5

There is a theoretical reasoning behind each system which I find vaguely plausible, but really the reason I include them is that people on the Internet have claimed they have been profitable in recent years. And would they ever lie to us??

6

Yes, that is correct. Of the 3 systems I haven’t described yet (not trying to be mysterious, just don’t feel like writing long posts tonight), one went each way on that game, so the double-bet on the “underdogs in games with low unders” pick was the decisive factor. As you perceived, none of the other 6 systems had a pick in that game.

I’m not taking any of my own subjective opinions into account at this point, but I know you follow the Giants closely, so your pessimistic assessment gives me some pause. On the other hand, Washington lost to the BEARS.

7

Briefly:

Bet on any team that is in the top 10 in rushing, rushing D, and overall D.

Good teams are good. These traits are especially correlated with the ability to control games. This week’s picks: Eagles, 49ers, Browns

Bet on road underdogs with a losing record.

These teams are perceived as so hopeless that the line will probably be too generous to them. This week: Cardinals

Bet on any team that lost by 21 or more points last week.

They will be pissed off this week. Pick: Panthers

Bet home teams with a winning home record if they are favored, but by less than 3 points.

If they have a winning home record and they only need to win by a little, that seems good. This week: Eagles

Bet the underdog in any game where the under is 42 points or less. DOUBLE if it’s a divisional game.

The fewer points scored, the more likely the dog will cover. Especially in a divisional game where the underdog will be especially motivated. This week: Jags, Bears, Colts, and double up on the Falcons, Pats and Giants.

Bet against home favorites who were road dogs last week.

Bet against road favorites who were home dogs last week.

In both cases, the radical shift in their situation probably reflects an overestimation of the home field advantage rather than a change in the quality of the team. The first system picks the Colts and Pats this week, the second the Cardinals.

8

Nah, I’m just salty. Giants are a reasonable bet this week. They just took the Bills down to the final play of the game, after all.

9

System #8 is all about this site, which offers computer-generated picks on every game in every major sport. Free picks are all over the Internet, but the difference here is that they tell you how the computer has done on its last 100 picks in every sport. If their picks have been consistently good, follow them, but if they’ve been consistently terrible, just bet against them. In their last 100 NFL picks against the spread, for example, they are 42-54-4.

Recently I have had good fortune fading (betting against) their tendency to take the under in every MLB playoff game.

This system, by its nature, generates a pick on every game (almost – sometimes the computer feels the line is completely accurate and passes on the game). This week: Raiders, Lions, Browns, Bills, Football Team, Bucs, Rams, Cardinals, Packers, Chargers, Fins, 49ers.

10

So in the ‘systems’ described in the OP, are the bets against the spread, or betting the money line?

11

Here’s one I’ve heard; bet on the team from the smaller city.

The reasoning is that the bookies want an equal amount of betting on both sides; that way, whichever team wins, they make a profit off the vig.

Now part of the odds are going to be based on the comparative abilities of the two teams. But some betters are sentimental and let their local loyalties sway their betting. They’ll bet on their home team.

So let’s say the Jacksonville Jaguars are playing the New York Jets. And let’s assume, for the sake of this argument, that the two teams are evenly matched and each has an equal chance of winning. But New York City has a population around nine times the size of Jacksonville - which means it will get nine times as many sentimental home town betters as Jacksonville will. To balance this out and get an even number of bets on both teams, the bookie will have to adjust the line and give Jacksonville better odds to attract neutral betters.

There are a few caveats. Green Bay’s a good example. As the smallest city in the NFL it should have the fewest number of home town betters. But the Packers have a national following and have fans from all over the country who will place sentimental bets on the team. So while the principle is to bet on the smaller city, the real goal is to bet on the team that has fewer fans.

12

Seems as reasonable a system as any. Here’s an article from March of this year that ranks teams by fan support on social media, which would probably be as good a measure as any:

Here’s the list if you don’t want to click through:

  1. Dallas Cowboys
  2. New England Patriots
  3. Pittsburgh Steelers
  4. Philadelphia Eagles
  5. Green Bay Packers
  6. San Francisco 49ers
  7. Seattle Seahawks
  8. Kansas City Chiefs
  9. New York Giants
  10. Denver Broncos
  11. New Orleans Saints
  12. Chicago Bears
  13. Carolina Panthers
  14. Las Vegas Raiders
  15. Buffalo Bills
  16. Baltimore Ravens
  17. Atlanta Falcons
  18. Detroit Lions
  19. Minnesota Vikings
  20. Miami Dolphins
  21. Cincinnati Bengals
  22. Houston Texans
  23. Cleveland Browns
  24. Indianapolis Colts
  25. Los Angeles Rams
  26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  27. Washington Commanders
  28. New York Jets
  29. Los Angeles Chargers
  30. Arizona Cardinals
  31. Tennessee Titans
  32. Jacksonville Jaguars (Bortles!)
13

Yeah, I think that’s a worthwhile thing to consider. I’ve heard that effect is particularly pronounced in nationally televised or playoff games. On the other hand, teams that have a lot of fans (see #1 above) also tend to have a lot of people who can’t stand them and will want to bet against them. I’m not sure how you would evaluate that effect.

14

All against the spread, except for one I haven’t described yet which generates moneyline picks.

15

…it would have told you to bet the Bills over the Giants, doubly so since it was SNF. Meanwhile, the Giants were covering for every second of that game, and damn near won it outright at the end despite being 15 point underdogs.

On the gripping hand, maybe that was just the exception that proves the rule.

16

3-4 so far, not great but I’m happy to see that all of the losses were pretty close. If the Niners cover tomorrow I can still show a small profit on the week.

17

Guess what? The more you bet, the more you will find that most of your losses are pretty close.

18

I wonder if I will also find that my mental calculations are overly optimistic. In fact, I have no chance to make a profit this week.:frowning:

Betting 100 quatloos per game:

NYG -3 +87
KC to win +38
Rams -3.5 -100
Cards +9.5 -100
Browns -3.5 -100
Pats +7.5 +89
Bucs to win -100

So I am currently 186 quatloos down. If the Niners cover at -7 tonight, I will end the week at -56. If they win but don’t cover, I’ll be at -250, and if they lose, -386.

19

Well, this certainly bit me in the tuchus this week. Look at that list above – keep in mind it’s a list of the teams the computer picked to NOT cover the spread. It went 11-0 so far this week…and it has the Vikings tonight…uh oh…

20

That just shows that it was due to win big this week. [/degenerate gambler mindset]