So few half point spreads, you know how much that bugs me.
Sunday Games
Atlanta @ New Orleans 12:00pm (New Orleans by 4)
Vick is back at 100%, and Atlanta has started to use Duckett more, however Reeves doesn’t seem to quite understand just how to do the whole Thunder and Lightning thing. The Saints defense isn’t likely to flat out dominate, nor are they going to chase Vick to relentlessly. All that said, the Saints have stepped up to be the most consistent team right now. Since that fluke loss to a somewhat improved Detroit team, they’ve stepped up to all the challenges. Last weeks win wasn’t exactly as convincing as the final score indicated, but they won at home against a good team. Atlanta will keep this game close, but I’m going to take the Saints to win and cover…although so far this season when a team seems to have separated itself from the pack they get humbled pretty quickly, could this be the Saints turn?
Cleveland @ N.Y. Jets 12:00pm (N.Y. Jets by 3)
I’m not sold on Pennington and the Jets, they looked too bad to often. The performance they put up against Minnesota was a surprise to me, but that Vikings offense is far from where it could be, and probably doesn’t say that much for the Jets D. Cleveland has a few holes and they are really tore up on defense. That could create alot of chances for Moss and company if Davis doesn’t find a way to control the ball and the clock. Penninton has faced terrible pass defenses the last 2 games, and this one isn’t any better…and they are hurting. The Browns will be able to move the ball some against a poor defense on the other side of the coin. Tricky game to judge with alot of question marks, mygut tell me that the Browns are gonna find a way, my head says the Jets will pull it out at home. My gut hasn’t been too reliable this season, so I’m gonna take the Jets to win and barely cover.
Oakland @ Kansas City 12:00pm (Oakland by 3)
Should be another fun game to watch, good season to be on the West Coast. Every game in this division will be exciting and fun to watch no matter who you’re pulling for. The Raiders have suddenly gone from dominating to average. Both teams have holes on defense, and both teams are strong on offense. The Chiefs are more to the extreme in both those categories. No one likes to play in Arrowhead, but I think the Oakland age and experience might be enough to calm and counteract that pressure. The Raiders have injuries in more critical positions, especially on defense. This is going to be one of those games where the team who makes the most, or maybe the last, big plays is going to win. Never bet these games, but you should definately take the over. I think the Raiders are going to win this one, but it’ll be close, however they’ll probably cover or push at least with that small spread.
Seattle @ Dallas 12:00pm (Dallas by 2½)
Dallas is starting a new QB, has a banged up O line, and Jerry Jones is gonna force Campo to get this record this week. I’d hate to be Coslett. Under these circumstances I think that even that sieve-like Seattle defense could make life hard for Emmitt. They’ll stack the line in a big way, keep the blitzes to a minimum or run blitz. They’ll man up on the outside, and will have a even bigger hammer in Alexander on the other side of the ball. It might be a little rainy and wet, which I think favors Seattle over all. If Seattle gets ahead this game is over, Hutchinson wasn’t exactly stellar in preseason, and Chad Brown might be in his face consistently. Dallas is the better team, but I just think there are too many factors against them here. Emmitt might break the record, its probably 50-50, but I think the whole situation will cost Dallas the game. Seattle wins and covers.
Tennessee @ Cincinnati 12:00pm (Tennessee by 5)
Ugly game, both teams have been disappointing, not much of a shock if you’re a Cincy fan. Both teams are off a bye, and thats gotta help the Titans more. I’m guessing George and McNair will be fresh and put up good games. The Titans don’t exactly control a game defensively, but this is Kitna we’re talking about here. Dillon can explode at any point and win a game like this singlehandedly, but it’s not something easy to predict. I’m going to stick with the odds makers and take the Titans to win and cover, but not by much.
Chicago @ Minnesota 12:00pm (Minnesota by 1)
God last week sucked, I can’t even discuss it rationally. So many disappointing factors, combined with the fact we gave the game away in the end when we probably didn’t deserve to win anyways. The Bears haven’t gotten any healthier, probably less so. The Vikings haven’t exactly turned it around either. the lesser of the two will lose this game, I don’t expect anyone to step up and win it.As usual I’m going to go with the Bears to win the upset, partly out of blind loyalty, and partly because A-Train should be able to control the clock. Culpepper and Moss haven’t hooked up this season much at all, so I’m guessing (hoping) it’ll won’t happen this week either.
Tampa Bay @ Carolina 12:00pm (Tampa Bay by 7)
You’re in deep trouble when you’re wishing you had a Wienke. The Panthers just will not be able to score on offense, it certain. This should be a much bigger spread. Granted Brad Johnson is out, but I don;t suspect it’ll be a huge drop off to Rob Johnson. His mobility might actually save him against the Carolina front 7. All signs point to a TB blowout. They win and cover easily.
Pittsburgh @ Baltimore 12:00pm (Pittsburgh by 2)
This game is going to be dull to watch. I’m betting Ray Lewis plays, and the Ravens simply have a better running game, they would even if Bettis were playing. Maddox is really showing how big of a drag Kordell was on that offense, and I suspect they’ll have some success moving the ball through the air. I can’t stand either team, so it makes it tough to fall back on my biases when the teams are pretty evenly matched. Pittsburgh’s real achillies is still the spread offense, and the Ravens can’t do that. I won’t be betting it, but I’ll take the Steelers to win and cover, the questionable Lewis tipping the scales ever so slightly.
Detroit @ Buffalo 12:00pm (Buffalo by 7)
Detroit’s big weakness is the pass defense, and guess who they going to face? Buffalo isn’t likely to shut down the Lions entirely, so Stewart will probably have a solid day. It doesn’t really matter what Harrington does cause he won’t be able to keep up with Bledsoe in any aspect. Its a 7 point spread, which gives me just a little pause, but the Bills should win by 2 TDs at home. I might be more cautious in Ford field, but I’ve got to go with the Bills to win and cover.
Arizona @ San Francisco 3:05pm (San Francisco by 8½)
The Cards have looked like a team on the verge of falling apart, and the niners have looked like a team on the verge of breaking out. I think both concepts are flawed. The 49ers are getting solved offensively, and the Cards have turned into a fairly balanced and consistent team under McGinnis. I bet the 49ers are going to come in pissed and aggressive after falling apart last week, and at home they’ll probably be successful. Hearst will run and Jones won’t, that alone points to a 49er win. However pure effort is going to get the Cards into this game and they’ll cover.
Denver @ New England 3:15pm (New England by 3)
I really figured the Broncos would be favored here. They are much too balanced and have too much talent to ingore the records. The Broncos aren’t exactly a team who’s played a soft schedule. Both teams are realtively healthy, and both are pretty well coached. The only question mark I see is Greise vs. Belichick. Greise has been less than inspiring, but he’s been efficient enough to win, but Belichick can make anyone look foolish with 2 weeks to prepare. However, I don’t see the Pats having much success against the Denver defense. They won’t run, and they won’t be able to throw 50 times without making mistakes. It’ll be close, but I’m guessing the Horsies get the upset W.
Houston @ Jacksonville 3:15pm (Jacksonville by 11)
Is there a more unpredictable team than the Jags? They’ve given me fits all year. Houston doesn’t have much of a chance to win this game, but thats a pretty big spread. The Texans defense has played soundly all season, and they’ve been close in games against some strong offenses. If the Texans manage a few big plays I think they’ll cover this spread, but since Jax is my fantasy defense I kinda hope they don’t. For that paper thin reason, I’m going to take the Jags to win and cover.
Indianapolis @ Washington 7:30pm (Pick 'Em)
Matthews back at the helm, go figure. Indy hasn’t been a consistent pick all season, but with no spread I’ve got to bet this game. I really can’t believe the Redskins aren’t 6 point dogs here. Manning is going to have to play a hell of alot better than he did last week when he screwed me, but I really think he will. If not, I’m never betting that guy again. The Colts offense is good on paper, but they’ve sucked in reality. Ditto the Redskins D. Matthews at the very least should limit the number of turnovers and sacks they give up, and the Colts D isn’t one that’ll rattle him. However when all logic fails you, go with the talent. Colts win this one
Monday Night Football
N.Y. Giants @ Philadelphia 9:00pm (Philadelphia by 7)
The Giants have no offense, and the Philly defense will probably be playing huge under the lights. McNabb isn’t likely to be sacked, but the Giants defense has kept most of their games tight. The Giants are banged up pretty good, and might be without a few key pieces. I don’t think the Eagles will roll offensively, but they’ll really make the Giants struggle, and as a result they’ll win and cover this one.
Sorry for getting in late, I hope a few people get online tomorrow morning and chime in this week. I’ll be back soon with my OMNI picks. Enjoy. Have a Happy, Naughty Halloween.
