[QUOTE=lazybratsche]
WAG: Blu-ray clearly won the battle as a video format, but HD-DVD maybe still has a bit of a chance as a data format. With the cost of HD-DVD computer drives plummeting, it’s a decent option if all you want is to make big backups or something like that. Ergo, there’s still competition here, while there’s no competition on the standalone drives.
ETA: You may also be underestimating the computational power necessary to handle an HD signal. I know my previous 5-year-old computer couldn’t handle highest resolutions for the video samples that are floating around the internet. Plus, I think there’s encryption from the source all the way to the TV, using HDMI. I think an HDMI video card would probably push you over the $400 price on a new computer.
[/QUOTE]
Perhaps, but you can get an 8600 GT for about a hundred bucks (the first hit for “vga hdmi”). Not an uber-fast gaming card by any stretch, but there is a lot of functionality not related to porting HDMI movies to the display. Strip away the retail markup, account for only-what’s-needed (e.g., no SLI infrastructure), buy in massive bulk at the wholesale level, and the price drops dramatically—dramatically from a hundred bucks. (I realize there would be a markup on the overall player, but I’m comparing retail pricing of individual components.)
Same for the motherboard. Does a player need a southbridge, SATA controllers, LAN, etc? Video processing can be put directly on the board (not stock VGA boards, but the required capability), and again, a hundred and fifty dollar retail board/CPU drops in price with stripped components, no markup, and large volume. There are nonstandard computer bits that need to go in, but most of these are widely available and pretty cheap.
Furthermore, the potential market for a standalone player is substantially larger than for bare drives—again, taking advantage of volume pricing.
I’m not saying the prices should be exactly comparable, but I still don’t get the sizable difference.
I also don’t understand how market forces are working in this. The forces behind Blu-Ray have an interest in getting their players into as many homes as possible, thereby increasing the demand for their format, thereby increasing their licensing fees. (New movies are mostly available in Blu-Ray, but what about back catalog?)
They’re also working against a ticking clock – it would be a vain conceit to think the Next Big Thing isn’t just around the corner. More players in homes would forestall the inevitable turnover, and the quicker they get in those homes the longer the lifespan of the technology.
Lastly, I don’t get the apparent violation of Econ 101. Basically, if a company can sell a unit for $1 cheaper than its competition, it will move its price accordingly. Its sales rise while others react, then wash, rinse, and repeat. There is a stopping point (where demand crosses supply), but given the above assumptions on manufacturing costs, that point hasn’t been reached.
I don’t have pretensions of pointing out the naked emperor, or suggesting they let some of the air out of the truck’s tires, I really don’t know where my logic is going astray.
And I want a cheap Blu-Ray player.