We obviously have an up and down history with the Russians over the past 70 years of so, but now that they are a nominal democracy (in theory at least) what exactly are they so stressed about that they feel the need to re-connect with Castro and Venezuela?
They are a fairly powerful country militarily. What do they have to fear from US or Europe? Why do they feel the need to have cred with belligerent (to the US) state like Cuba and Venezuela?
What’s in their heads that this seems like a good move?
What makes you think they’re doing this out of fear? It seems to me that that Putin is try to do is to A) keep the breakaway republics under his thumb, and B) gain political leverage over Europe and the U.S. and other countries.
He’s also playing to nationalism, populism, and the Russian people’s sense that they have lost a lot of power and stature in the world, and he’s promising to give it to them.
Fear doesn’t have anything to do with it, other than the fear of losing an empire they once had.
They already lost the empire. If it’s fear, it’s the fear that they will be a second or third tier nation. The want the power to project force so that they may remain one of the top tier nations despite their dwindling population. Russia is in an existential downward spiral. They simply are not breeding enough to maintain a Russian identity. Fifty years from now there will be fewer Russians alive than there are today. Not because they were all killed off but because they are not breeding. Apparently Russia’s abortion rate is extremely high. They need to control the oil/gas trade between Northern Europe and Asia.
I think Russia is afraid. They are afraid that Russia might end up a failed state, a footnote in history. They are afraid they may become Iran. The once great Persians now treated like little children in terms of the world stage.
I disagree with Sam Stone I think a profound fear has a lot to do with it.
I’ve got the impression that Russians (or at least Russian leaders) are famously paranoid to a degree little appreciated in the West. Even during the height of the Cold War, I imagine few Americans knew offhand that the US had joined other major Western powers to invade Russia in the relatively recent past? But you could bet that your average Russian was aware of that in full (yea, exaggerated) historical detail.
The Russian military budget, while increased a bit, is about the size of Italy’s. And below a number of other European countries. Hardly massive. Especially for such a large nation and you coming from the USA, which spend about the whole Russian military budget ever two or three weeks. Last I checked it wasn’t Russia that is constantly involved in a number of wars outside their borders or have military bases strewed across the globe.
What makes you say they reconnect with Castro? Russia just closed the last military base on Cuba. Venezuela pays good money for Russian expertise and Russian arms. What’s not to like? Besides it’s a good opportunity to give back for all the snubs the USA has played them. So why does the USA feel it has to embrace belligerent (to Russia) states like Georgia? Or set up military bases, radars and anti-missile systems all around Russian borders. Not directed towards Russia of course. Yeah right. We all know what kinda apeshit the USA would go if Russia had decided to set up some of the same systems in Cuba.
I don’t think the Russian leadership is driven by fear. Rightly or wrongly there is a widespread belief in Russia that the USA has overplayed its cards and that the American position as the only global superpower is coming to an end. So there is a void to be filled. And it is now fairly obvious that The USA will not be able to protect its client states in the immediate Russian sphere, like the Caucasus, so I guess that is not an unreasonable view.
Russia has no deep interest in Cuba or Venezuela or plan to become a global superpower. It does however see itself as an important regional power. And for some unfathomable reason, indiscriminately shelling and killing its lightly armed peacekeeping troops and nationals with heavy artillery and without warning in an international recognised truce zone, made them slightly miffed. How very strange.
One could also say that using Russian weaponry “aquired” by a region in rebellion against a democratically elected government to shell from within a region that is being patrolled by Russian “peacekeepers” who appear to have no interest in stopping cross border attacks, as long as they are outgoing attacks, seem to have miffed the Georgian government. How very strange.
The TRUTH is that neither side is being honest. Not yours, and not the Georgian. The TRUTH is also that Russian military doctrine has long had a policy of maskirova (which I probalby misspelled). This means that disinformation and concealing aspects of things are in ingrained reflex in military planning.
The problem is that most folks viewed Georgia (and it’s seperatist regions) as a seperate nation. And then when the Georigan military tried to root out people in rebellion against the state, the Russians (a large and much more powerful neighbor) jumped in with both feet, clearly aiming their aggression against only Georgia.
Doing this, all while fighting to hold onto their own breakaway region (Chechnya) makes them look like world class hypocrites, as well as raises the question of motivation in why they would be ok with Georgia calling apart, but arent’ willing to give freedom to a minority group themselves.
But we’re hijacking.
To address the OP: The are being militarily expansive because they can, and because they are trying to reclaim their position as a military power. While they have a large military, it has suffered greatly since the collapse of the Soviet Union. I remember reading in 1995 or so that the average US pleasure pilot was getting more flight time than Russian Air Force pilots.
Now that they have the money, they are upgrading and repairing what they can. I would be VERY interested to see if there is a special focus on heavy airlift capability or naval force projection.
Ok, WHAT** big, nuclear **missiles? The only “big nuclear missiles” based in a land bordering Russia are China’s.
Russia has a varied combination of issues and interests at play, but to a large degree there is also the desire that the West continue taking them seriously, and concern about being cornered and isolated. (And probably a psychological/cultural sense that there “should” be a sphere of influence for them in their neighborhood)
You mean like if Serbia in the middle of the night, and immediately following a TV broadcast declaring their eternal and brotherly love, started shelling civilian areas of Pristina - the largest town of the breakaway Serbian region Kosovo – and in the process also killed a number of US “peacekeepers”? Yes, that is one way to look at it. Except that there was an internationally agreed upon truce in South Ossetia, of which Georgia was a signatory and which stipulated Russian peacekeeping troops and no Georgian military action. But I’m sure the USA wouldn’t in the least get miffed over a few dead US peacekeepers in Pristina.
And least of all the US side.
You mean world class hypocrites, like the USA and the rest of the Western nations which have just come home from supporting the break up of a sovereign nation, all the while doing their utmost to keep other minority populations of other nations with far greater cause, from seeking their own independence, even when it was clear for everybody with an ounce of sense, that this would come back and haunt then faster than you can spell “precedence”. “Unique case” my ass. Yes that would make them bloody hypocrites, except - unlike South Ossetia - it is highly doubtful there is any widespread, or majority wish, in Chechnya for independence. So I guess that leaves us with the hypocrisy card.
They have ordered a number of new nuclear submarines. And have some new carrier groups planned as well.
These two statements seem contradictory. Does Russia have grand ambitions to return to a bi-polar or multi-polar world or not? If Russia has no plans to become a global superpower, why did they resume fighter/bomber probes of UK and American airspace, which were discontinued after the fall of the Soviet Union? Why conduct joint sea and air exercises with Venezuela? Why seek to make the Shanghai Cooperation Organization into an eastern NATO?
You’re right, Russian regular and irregular forces have killed or simply “disappeared” many males that would be of age to fight any third war of independence. Now, after the indiscriminate shellings and aerial bombings, most of the Chechnyan population seems tired of war and resigned to the fact that Russia will call the shots.
You apparently don’t know the first thing about Chechnya then.
You do know that the Russians fucking FLATTENED Grozny, right? That after the second Chechen war something like 80% of the economy of Chechnya was destroyed? And you know that the independence movement in Chechnya changed from a majority movement to a minority movement by the simple expedient of exterminating the independence movement?
Apparently as long as the United States isn’t involved you aren’t interested. Typical.
So, you have no interest in actually discussing the Russian side of thing that I have mentioned, and will just be waving the “USA=Bad!” flag. Good to know.
I know a bit about Chechnya. It would apper that some who know a bit more than I do are posting here, and it doesn’t really apply to the OP.
But if, as you claim, they are hoping to float new aircraft carriers, that would point to a projection of power outside of their borders, which is one of the defining characteristics of a military superpower.
Strategic bomber pilots need training too, and the best way to do that is to fly on such missions. I think they haven’t really violated UK or American airspace either. I believe these guys got seriously few flight hours since the collapse of the Soviet Union, which was due to financial reasons and not any change in stance.
This is a silly comment. Why do any countries conduct military exercises together? That’s very very common.
What about Germany and Turkey? In each of those countries, as well as other european countries, the US deploys tens of nuclear weapons. Ok, they don’t directly border Russia, but it’s close enough. Cuba doesn’t border the USA either, which is pretty irrelevant.
That is incorrect. The Russian birth rate is similar to many European nations, while the death rate is higher. They have recognized their demographics problem, and Putin has taken measures to reverse it. The population decrease has slowed down several years in a row, and is expected to turn into an increase at about 2020.
