I don’t think this is correct. If Obama, Clinton, Sanders, or any number of other prominent Democrats had shown up at the Republican convention and endorsed Trump, things would already be over by this point. We’d be debating whether or not Biden would even break 100 EC votes.
If Trump wins again (which I believe he will) it will because of blanket statements like this coming from Democrats.
Why do Trump defectors have so little impact? I can only speak for myself, not anyone else. Personally, I don’t give a crap what anyone else says or thinks, Republican defectors absolutely included. Kasich, McCain, Bolton, and the rest of them have no sway over my opinions. I base my decisions on what I see, feel, and experience. I see things changing for the better under President Trump, and hope for further improvements in the future. So he gets my vote.
Also, in general, the moment someone defects, he immediately loses all influence in his former camp.
Red Sox fan: “That’s it, I’m done with this loser team, I’m going to root for the Yankees from now on!”
All his fellow Sox fans: “Don’t let the door hit you on the way out.” (NOT, “oh, you’re rooting for NYY? Then I better go root for them too”)
Well, this is way down in the weeds. For Florida right now it is 56% polls, and 44% “other”. I believe only part of “other” is what I would call “fundamentals” (economic data, etc). The rest is demographic shifting based on past elections and demographically similar state polling.
I’m basing my “percent fundamentals” number on the table from the initial release of the forecast, which said the fundamentals number would decrease as the election gets closer. At 56 days it should be less than 20% fundamentals (lower than I actually said in my first post).
Cite (maybe halfway down the page): How FiveThirtyEight’s 2020 Presidential Forecast Works — And What’s Different Because Of COVID-19 | FiveThirtyEight
It’s a pretty accurate statement though. When 63 million people vote for someone who equates torch-holding neo-Nazi sympathizers and neo-Confederates with “very fine people,” that shoe fits. The difference this time is that the rest of us realize that Trump actually has enough support to win; I think a lot of more people are motivated to vote against Trump this time around, even if Biden isn’t their ideal candidate (he wasn’t my ideal candidate, either, fwiw).
Hey around here we live for the weeds! Thanks for the elucidation.
That said in the context of your comment more than that is “other than polling” … which means your point is even more valid.
joe sixpack does not care what politicians or media guys say. They are voting trump even if Jesus was on the ballot
The Trump administration in a nutshell:
- bigotry is the central theme since Trump descended the escalator
- multiple indictments and conviction
- could not even build a wall that stands up to wind
Which part is not true?
List the things that are “better” and why. Besides conservative judges, which are not objectively “better” just an attribute of whichever party happens to be in control when appointments are made.
It’s not accurate at all. I tried to get some close friends and family to understand that people were not voting for his general buffoonery last time. They were not voting for his eloquence. They were voting for him two main reasons, the first being a repudiation of the false moral superiority and arrogance democrats are frequently guilty of the second being out of spite. Little has changed this time around, and democrats are even more oblivious than before.
Four years ago I was a democrat, even if grudgingly. I am so disappointed and frustrated by what the party is today that I will not be voting, and no longer affiliate with any party. Trump is an idiot, sure. That democrats assumed that was enough that they could pick whoever they wanted and still win is even worse in a way.
Why is that worse? Should they pick someone who they don’t want? Should they let a ping pong ball machine decide, or some other mechanism to randomly choose a nominee? Maybe a smoke filled back room would be more to your liking? Why should they not pick whoever they want? That’s the whole point of political parties and primaries, to decide who it is that most of the party wants.
While I definitely understand this point, I still find it shocking.
No matter what you thought of his policies, Obama was truly a gentleman, a moral leader, a role model, and a statesman. No matter what you think of his policies, Trump is truly just an awful human being in more ways than I care to enumerate.
This bit – like so much else since 2016 – simply makes no sense at all.
None.
Not any.
I agree with most of this, actually (I’m not sure it’s really false moral superiority… but obviously the Trump voter would say it is).
There are quite a few Trump voters (maybe even most) who support him primarily to piss off liberals. They don’t care about his policies, the don’t care about corruption, and they certainly don’t care about his incompetence. They just love that he hates liberals as much as they do. And they don’t like anybody telling them what to do, especially under the guise of “it’s for your own good”.
That’s why mask mandates piss them off so much. It’s not necessarily that they don’t believe that masks are effective in reducing COVID spread (because when I’ve pointed out the research they will nod and agree) - they just don’t want you tell them they HAVE to wear them.
So when you say “you have to vote for Biden, he’s the only sane and competent leader that is viable on the ballot” they respond “oh yeah? Fuck you.” There is no reaching those voters, period. It’s pointless to try because even appeals to reason are seen as insults.
Which ties right back to the OP. Having “former senior officials” that are Republicans say “you can’t vote for Trump, he’s crazy” just falls right back into the “telling me what to do” trap. It’s like our friend Tim said up-thread: he believes that things are getting better, in whatever way he perceives that, and fuck anybody that tells him he can’t vote for Trump because of “respect for the office” or “violating norms” or “Constitutional violations” or whatever other deep-state bullshit they come up with.
Of course they’re not voting for his eloquence; they’re voting for him because they’re fighting the same fucking culture wars that he is. You can deny it’s prejudice or bigotry all you want; actions speak louder than denials.
I think @Jas09 is spot on with his/her response.
Going just a wee bit further …
I think it’s like telling your daughter that – since her marriage to a decent, honorable, hard-working guy didn’t work out – she should take up with a homeless man with a serious substance abuse problem.
The use of the word “repudiation.” It’s such a euphemism for an ignorant, ill-considered, irrational, knee-jerk response to something that really wasn’t the problem in the first place.
I think it paints this cohort in a terrible light (which they would seemingly take as high praise), but I genuinely do applaud the candor 
It’s “worse” because…white grievance.
The only thing I will somewhat agree is to go back to something Bernie Sanders voters have talked about, which is that corporate Democrats (and I would have to acknowledge that Biden has been one) talked a good game but co-signed the death warrant of middle America that Republicans drafted and wrote. The trade deals that sent jobs overseas. The deals to make mergers and acquisitions easier, thus stripping cities like St. Louis, which once had as many Fortune 500 companies per capita as any city in the US, of their own regional hiring power and turning into a dying hollowed shell of its former self.
Good post, Jas09.
It’s akin to telling a smoker that smoking is bad for them. They know. They’re just addicted and can’t quit the stupid.
OK.
Highest unemployment since the Great Depression. Yes, the stock market is doing pretty good, but those gains aren’t going to replace the Social Security checks of million of seniors. He just defunded Social Security and MediCare, you know - so that well will run dry in about 3 years. After years of promises not to touch SS and Medicare.
The food supply is becoming unstable and prices are going crazy - I think today hamburger was like $7 bucks a pound but eggs are .40 a dozen. And this has EVERYTHING to do with the agencies that are under Trump’s administration, the USDA was always real good at maintaining the supply-demand of the food prices.
The fact that our government agencies are still functioning at all is really a testament to how obdurate they are structurally. Because Trump has replaced the leadership of pretty much every agency with people that have stated public positions that are antithetical to the mission of the agency.
The abject failure of the pandemic response made us a worldwide embarrassment, especially when you consider how it could’ve ( and should’ve ) been. There are some problems that can’t be handled by a small group of cronies. You have to mobilize the multiple layers of government in order to get thousands of people working all at once, each handling a specific aspect of the problem under a clear chain of command. Which is what I expect for my tax dollars.
The pandemic response shows what happens when you turn over the operation of the ship of state to someone that doesn’t know how a boat works, much less how to pilot one.
Which really isn’t MY primary objection to Trump. My objection is that he’s a known gangster with mob ties and a proven con man who is running a long game on his supporters.
Do you really think, at this very moment, that your life is better than it was 4 years ago? If so, (I’m not going to accuse you of lying) your life is probably atypical. If you really think life for the average American is better than it was 4 years ago, you are being disingenuous.