I’ve been reading about various Republicans who are unhappy with Trump and plan to either vote for Biden or go third party this election.
There are prominent names like John Kasich and Rick Snyder, former GOP governors of the rust belt states of Ohio and Michigan, who have endorsed Biden. There are the more than 70 former GOP national security officials who have endorsed Biden. There’s Cindy and Meghan McCain, John McCain’s widow and daughter, who have de facto had John McCain endorse Biden from the grave. There is the Lincoln project as well, consisting of several current former and current Republicans opposed to Trump.
Then there are ordinary voters who are also coming out saying they plan to change their vote from Trump to Biden. I’ve seen stories about evangelicals saying the plan to vote for Biden after having voted Trump in 2016. Here is an article that details some voters who plan to change their vote.
Despite all this, Trump still has around a 1 in 3 chance of winning according to 538’s model. This is roughly the same chance 538 gave him back in 2016, and we all know how that turned out.
So the question for this thread is why are all these efforts seemingly having such little effect? Is it an electoral college thing, where the voters that are changing to D are either in very blue states, making the deep blue states even bluer, or maybe in deep red states making deep red states only slightly less red? Is there a sizable group of people who voted for Clinton last time and plan to vote for Trump this time that are being missed by the media discussion? What do you all think is the explanation for why Biden has basically the same overall chances that Clinton had in 2016?