And just like when the doctors tell them “You know if you keep smoking, bad things will eventually happen,” they shrug it off, saying “I’ve been smoking for 25 ‘fuckin’ years and I’m not dead yet, so there. What do the experts know?!”
Many of the replies are very enlightening, but are focused on Trump’s base. As difficult as they may be for a liberal like me to understand, I was trying to get at a different issue. That being, of those who did support Trump in 2016, were the vast majority really his base?
My assumption was that there are meaningful numbers of people in other groups who could be pulled away. Based on the polls and Nate Silver’s numbers, though, it seems I may have been mistaken in those beliefs. Are “moderate Republicans”, for lack of a better term, really that rare of a beast, that they no longer have any influence, even as a tipping point demographic?
Not right at all, Biden was chosen to appeal to the moderates out there. His positive polling Arizona and other states that Trump won before show why what you posted there is wrong.
The Democrats are a far cry from perfect, but to my understanding they have stood against bigotry and racism, for social safety nets, for human rights and a more just society. This, in the eyes of Trump supporters, makes Democrats and liberals “falsely superior”. Can you explain why this is so? Where does the falseness lie? Do Trump supporters think that progressives do not (cannot possibly!) believe in those ideals? If so, why do you think Trump supporters believe that? Is it because they don’t believe in those ideals themselves and can’t imagine that anyone else would? Is that the reason for the “spite”?
Inquiring minds want to know.
Yes, without question, the majority was his base. When you consider that 85 - 90% of the Republican party supports Trump even during his epic mishandling of the pandemic response, that’s telling. By contrast, Bush’s support among Republicans was at 60% in May of 2008 - that was before the collapse of credit markets that happened in the fall, which caused support to dive even further.
There are Republicans who have stopped supporting Trump but many of them have either left the party are or no longer visible in it. Also telling is the defeat of many of Trump’s conservative rivals during the primaries of 2016.
Some firsthand stories of Republicans refusing to support Trump in 2020, for those who may be interested. Not all are “defectors,” though many are. A few high-profile types, but mostly ordinary folks.
A lot of Trump’s base is still there. Where Trump is hurting badly is among moderates, centrists, and independents who weren’t sure whether to support him in 2016, considered voting for Gary Johnson, considered staying home, but ultimately said “What do I have to lose?” or “I can’t let Hillary Clinton win” and decided to take a chance on Trump, assuming that they’d have a chance to express buyer’s remorse in 2020. Trump is losing these voters, and it’s probably too late to win them back.
What Trump is doing now is doubling and tripling down on the racism and the crazy, hoping it will pay off one more time. He wants to pull more bigots out of the ground. In mining for votes, candidates have a choice: they can look for other potential sources of votes, or they can keep digging in the same spot, but deeper. Trump has done the latter. He’s digging deeper into culture wars, gambling that this will pay off. It might not.
Yes, the vast majority are (at least 80% of his voters, I would say). That’s true for both parties, by the way. The vast majority of Clinton voters were Democratic base voters. Each party starts with their 40% or so, who will pretty much never vote for the other candidate.
Now, a confounding variable is those base voters that may chose not to vote either due to a lack of intensity or a dislike of their candidate. They are still base voters, however.
If Trump had lost 20% of his support from 2016 levels, he’d be in much worse shape than he is. It seems like the number for the Republicans is somewhere in the neighborhood of 95 to 98 % rather than 80%.
IIRC, about 30-35% of people identify with either party. Depending on the time of year, the number of people is slightly higher for Republicans in one poll, slightly higher for Democrats in another. In each camp, you’ll probably find about 80-90% of voters who vote for the party or against the other party no matter what.
Excellent posts Jas09.
Indeed, a huge part of the Trump voter is working on the basis of “for all these years I listened to the people who are supposed to ‘know better’, and what do I have to show for it? WHO ARE THEY TO TELL ME what’s right?”
Well, but that was in fact part of the problem even in 2016 – the disbelief that he could have that much support. Part of the problem being faced now is that even the surviving “establishment Republicans” like McConnell and Graham know that the “base” is ready and able to come after them, and internally they can take them down. The base gave up on conventional conservatism because they realized its promises were just empty talk to get their vote, and now their position about the whole Establishment edifice is “let the mother****er burn”.
Well, nobody loses all of their swing voters. And there are certainly some voters that will be Clinton/Trump voters (although that is a very strange nut to crack). I think 80% is about right. He got 46% of the electorate in 2016. 80% of that is 36.8%, and I think that’s a realistic floor. That’s pretty much the lowest his approval rating ever got (circa Dec 2017). Those voters will not be moved by anything.
The problem with this is that they were in fact listening to people who SAID they know better but really didn’t, while ignoring those who actually did know better. And now they have doubled, and tripled, and quadrupled down on that strategy.
Ah, the “I would have voted for the Democrats but then they called me a mean name” defense. Yes, that makes sense.
The whole “Look what you made me do” argument is the brand of serial abusers and comic book villains. It’s not the Democrats’ fault Trump was elected in the first place, and if he’s re-elected it still won’t be their fault. Trump was elected by people who voted for Trump, a man who was literally being taken to court for fraud during the 2016 election campaign. Trump is their fault, and their fault alone.
Because they are all inherently selfish, selfish to the point that they cannot understand that someone might genuinely believe in helping other people.
I’m seeing this all over the political correctness thread - “What, I have to change the words I use on the off chance they MIGHT offend someone?” That inconveniences ME, no one is even thinking about the impact this has on ME. You must be trying to pull off something nefarious, I don’t believe it’s possible that anyone could genuinely care.”
I see this all the time. Think of the politicians (Portland, Cheney) that changed their positions on gay rights because of their gay children. For years, they had thousand of constituents with gay children but they were still completely and totally unempathetic until the issue adversely affected someone they loved.
I need better than that from my leaders.
Well, @thickpancreas - your responses have been addressed directly by various posters with questions and comments. The points you made about Trump supporters have been made before. Since you objected to my characterization of Trump supporters of being okay with bigotry, corruption and incompetence, I would love to hear a deeper and more comprehensive explanation of their motives. Unless it really is down simply to their petulance and spite. Which, I assume, is an admission of a kind. One for which they cannot demand nor receive respect.
You don’t believe in cause and effect? If I give you the choice between a poop sandwich and a jug of rat poison and you pick the poop sandwich, can I still say “but but YOU picked it! it’s YOUR fault!”
This is a false dilemma. At worst it’s more like a choice between a generic burger, maybe slightly overcooked with stale buns and a side of steamed broccoli vs. rat poison. And then choosing the rat poison.
Democrats are bigoted, incompetent, and corrupt. That can not be their only argument against Trump or you don’t get anywhere. Imagine you’re a kid being bullied by a neighborhood gang. One day a new gang moves in to your area and tells you that now you have to join their gang, or they’re going to tell everyone you’re a racist…that’s exactly how well the average democrat argument sells to the average republican.
Maybe to you. Not to everyone, myself included.