Ok one of those ‘almost too stupid to ask’ questions I don’t know, is why aren’t dictators more brutal than they are?
I learnt the following factoids thanks to movies and references, for instance, Fidel Castro’s first revolution was busted by Batista’s army and Castro was sent to prison. Why not kill Castro? Then Batista would be partying in Havana Casinos right now. Why so nice to the communist insurgents? (I know that they gouged out the eye of one of Castro’s men under torture, but somehow were too nice to actually kill the Castro boys).
Many of the Stalinist-era repression stories have people sent to the Gulag. Including later to be famous writers; but they survived to harm the government. Why not shoot Solstenitsin? Why so (relatively) nice with political prisoners?
I also remember that Stalin (or was it Lenin?) himself was arrested and sent to the Tsarist prison camps four times, but always escaped. Why was the Czar so nice? Why not put a bullet into Uncle Joe before he becomes the new Czar?
Hindsight is 20/20. If Batista had known Castro was going to be the guy who overthrew him, he would have shot him. Same thing for the Russian revolutionaries.
But they didn’t know that until Castro/Lenin were already well on their way to succeeding and there were many like them. To make sure to get every potential Castro or Lenin would have required killing a lot more people and probably running a Stalin-level of constant purging, which Batista and the Tzar may not have wanted to do.
Think of Hitler. He tried a putsch in 1923 and, if we had known what was going to happen next, it would have made sense to kill him. But in 1923, we didn’t know Hitler was going to have the future he had; he was only some git who made a half-assed attempt at overthrowing the government.
Not necessarily. Many of the judges that caused him to be released very early rather than locked up forever or for at least a decade had right-wing sympathies. Whereas they threw the book at left-wing activists. So while they may have not wanted him to go as far as he did, the people who let him out didn’t really mind his cracking down on liberal democracy.
So this wasn’t really a case of “we didn’t KNOW he was going to be a dictator”, it was more of a case of “we didn’t really believe he was going to be a dictator on his own terms.”
A dictator can have things backfire by killing an opponent and turn him into a martyr. Not quite the same thing but in the late 1960s there was an United Mine Workers labor official named Jock Yablonski who was in a political struggle with UMW president W.A. Boyle. Boyle wasn’t satisfied with stealing an election from Yablonski, he hired people to kill Yablonski, his wife and daughter. The killers left a lot of clues, were soon caught, people were outraged and Boyle ended up getting three life sentences and dying in prison. People at the time remarked that alive Yablonski couldn’t get people todo much but dead he had everybody anxious to help his cause.
A live prisoner is a potential lever against the prisoner’s family and colleagues, and sometimes can be flipped to be a spy for the government after release.
Also, it’s easier to get people to surrender if they think you might let them live. If they are sure you are going to kill them all on the other hand they are more likely to engage in resistance to the end no matter how hopeless it is - they’ve nothing to lose.
In a more military context, this was the classic blunder the Wermacht made in Barbarossa. They took millions of prisoners at the start, but the abuse, neglect and outright murder of prisoners soon resulted in their enemies resisting with extraordinary bitterness rather than surrender.
Brutality can cement opposition to rule, which requires more brutality, which leads to more opposition, etc. Better to just have the threat of brutality w/o using it too much.
The death of Neda Agha Soltan in Iran, or the torture videos in Egypt helped make the resistance stronger, not weaker.
Too much brutality could make people fearless too. Soon they have nothing to lose, so why not bother to overthrow the regime.
Punishment can deter behavior (by scaring people) but it can also encourage it (by making people dislike the regime).
Probably one of the worst was “Papa Doc” Duvalier (1907-1971). He terrorized Haiti for 14 years-his MO was having his private army (“Tontons Macoute”) kill enemies and force underlings to report on eachother.
Of course, you need to keep an eye on the people you trust-they might turn on you (dictators like Joseph Stalin staged frequent “purges”-to rot out possible traitors).
Also if that’s your only response to opposition you’d eventually destroy your own society & power base. As rule the more people you kill the more unpopular you’ll become, and if you kill those new people who hate you then you’ll make even more enemies you need to kill, in an ever increasing bloody feedback loop until you’d get to the point where you’d be killing millions, everyone hates you and your country is collapsing.
People are often not that great at evaluating threats, and being a dictator arguably makes that worse because people can become afraid to telling you anything they think you don’t want to hear. Besides, dictators can’t run a whole country by themselves. They need to rely on other people, and if they are so brutal the people close to them start to get nervous that they’re going to get killed, they may kill the dictator before the dictator can kill them.
It didn’t work that way with Stalin though. He killed something like 1/6 of Russias population in 30 years, but he was (and to a degree still is) loved by a lot of Russians. Same with Mao, he killed millions due to his incompetence and vanity (the cultural revolution). But still beloved.
But that was back in the days when media was more centralized. People had no idea about the purges or abuses being caused by Stalin. No idea about Mao. I guess they were both seen as ‘founders of the new age’ which may have affected how people thought of them.
However that formula (the more brutality you engage in, the more people rebel, the more people rebel the more brutality you use) seems to be the pretty common spiral most of the time.
But as the OP points out, even Stalin didn’t kill all of his political opponents; a great many ended up in gulags or otherwise treated less than lethally. So the hypothetical dictator I’m talking about would be significantly more murderous than Stalin.
I’ll ask the OP: How much more brutal do you want? If a dictator kills everyone who hates him, he won’t have anyone to dictate left in the end. So if you kill one ‘troublemaker’, it might create 2 more, that you then have to kill. Once you get down to some small number of people left alive, you better be a pretty well armed, eagle-eyed, and tireless dictator. Besides, the options aren’t just prison and death. Slave labor leading to death is often preferred.
Self preservation is my guess. Although there have been some pretty brutal dictators, I’d pick Idi Amin and Pol Pot as two of the most brutal since WWII. Who was the most brutal dictator in history? could be a good elimination game…
Almost no “political opponents” of Stalin’s ended up in gulags. They were either killed or managed to escape the country. Those who wound up in gulags were no opponents of Stalin’s. In fact, most were just as devoted to Stalin before being arrested as the rest of the population. Read Solzhenitsyn.
BTW: Stalin and Mao both died in their beds, in office, having pretty much cowed any remaining opposition into waiting for that rather than attempting a frontal challenge.
But other less-arbitrarily-deadly dictators managed to live long and prosper as well. Normally, you do not need to reach PolPot/Amin levels of terror to maintain control. You just need to provide enough examples of what are the fruits of disloyalty so that the majority of the population makes the rational choice to keep their heads down and try to live. Many regimes will also take the position that they’ll rather *not *make you a martyr.
I think that one of the greatest quotes I’ve read (although the sympathies it expressed are totally abhorrent) was when one of the police chiefs was quizzed, at the trial, as to whether or not there had been political assassinations, he answered “Yes, but not enough!”
This is an excellent question. IIRC, Castro’s first fling got some people killed…and he got off with something like, what, 4 years, or less? What would happen to somebody in the US now, that tried to pull that? A death sentence, for starters!
Strange times.