The challenge with getting the message out is Brandolini’s law, or The Bullshit Asymmetry Principle. "The amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude bigger than to produce it”.
The bullshit machine cranks it out constantly. It’s very hard to fight it.
But it takes heavy messaging to convince people that “it could be better” = “it has gotten worse”.
Nah, people are naturally conditioned to feel loss (or perceived loss) much more sharply. If I get a $10k raise that feels like $6k in lifestyle improvement then people are going to perceive it as a $4k loss. Maybe not by those exact numbers but they’re going to feel like they’re getting short-changed by the economy.
OK, but I thought it was obvious what I meant, which is that I think he’s getting far less credit than he rightfully deserves, given the actual condition of the economy. But if that bothers you, so be it. And don’t tell me what to post, BTW. That’s an irritating tactic.
It’s the economic theory of wheat and bread. Wheat goes up, bread goes up. Wheat comes down, bread stays up.
Thank you for posting the Pew numbers, which are now about 4 months out of date. More recent polling shows that Democratic majorities are now saying the economy is good.
Republicans are stuck still with extremely negative views. Now, both parties react more negatively to the economy when the other party is in power. But it’s well-known that Republicans are more purely partisan about it. Their views go more strongly positive or negative than Democrats, who while they’re still partisan, have a more data-driven view.
Anyway, the talking point that a “majority of your own party” says it’s not going well is now outdated.
Here’s some May numbers for you:
Consumer sentiment retreated about 13% this May following three consecutive months of very little change. This 10 index-point decline is statistically significant and brings sentiment to its lowest reading in about six months. This month’s trend in sentiment is characterized by a broad consensus across consumers, with decreases across age, income, and education groups. Consumers in western states exhibited a particularly steep drop. While consumers had been reserving judgment for the past few months, they now perceive negative developments on a number of dimensions. They expressed worries that inflation, unemployment and interest rates may all be moving in an unfavorable direction in the year ahead.
Anyway, whatever. You all just keep telling yourselves that everyone is hunky-dory and it’s just GOP Brainwashing making anyone downbeat on the economy and there’s no possible way that anyone who took a vacation could ever have anything bad to say about their economic position.
I could see some of this certainly, especially in 2022 and 2023. As the inflation gets further and further into the rear-view mirror, that phenomenon should fade.
No, folks that can afford vacations and have bad things to say about their economic position have brainwashed themselves.
What is your view of the following hypothetical? Let’s say we had the exact economy we have today, all numbers the same. But let’s take out Biden and insert Trump back into the White House. What do you think would happen to the public’s overall average view on the economy? Answer that for me.
So, here’s another survey, this one of Wisconsin voters in May (very recent). 65% say their own financial situation is good or better. But only 34% says the overall national economy is good.
When you drill into those questions by party, 58% of Republicans and 78% of Democrats say their own financial situation is good or better. And 8% of Republicans and 64% of Democrats say the national economy is good or better. I literally think that when Republicans answer the question about the national economy, they’re imagining that they’ve been asked, “Do you like having Joe Biden in office?”
Anyway, we’ll just pretend everything sucks until Trump gets back in office, then we can say the economy is great again and move on to border walls with motes & crocodiles…
This is the sort of one-dimensional shallow thinking that has me baffled in this thread.
I have a job and get a raise. Yay! I decide to take the family on vacation. The kids want to go to Disneyland and the spouse wants to go to Mexico. I look into it and realize that travel, hotel and food costs have shot up and there’s no way to make any of that happen. We settle on a weekend trip to a local destination and have a pleasant time but it’s far from the vacation I thought I should be getting (or my family hoped for) with my raise. Someone, somewhere, records that we went on vacation and puts it into a report that someone else reads and thinks “Those guys must be loving this economy since they went on vacation.”
It is perfectly legitimate to both think “Well, we’re doing fine enough to have taken a vacation so that’s good” AND think “Shit is way too expensive, inflation is out of control and I’m getting cheated out of the lifestyle I should be having for my income”. It’s completely possible to both tick “I’m doing okay” on an opinion poll AND be downbeat about the way the economy has been.
Why, who cares? I think that people would have large grocery bills and rent payments and climbing interest rates keeping them from looking into buying a house. But that’s all I have to say about that since it’s a waste of time and informative of nothing. You all sound desperate to convince yourselves that there’s just some propaganda operation that you can break and fix this because no one is willing to admit that people actually ARE downbeat on the economy for any reason besides “FOX News made this happen”.
Pollsters care. It’s well-known that Republicans are more partisan in their views on the economy. In post 125, we have polling that shows the Democrats are more aligned in their views on the economy and their overall situation than Republicans.
If Trump were to step into the White House tomorrow, I think you’d see an instantaneous (almost) about-face by many GOP voters on that national economic question. There would be some of that on the Democratic side, but to a much small % movement than the Pub voters.
Ok, fine. Now find a way to make that win votes in November.
Yes, I’m quite certain that folks getting by on minimum wage or SS, SNAP, and if they’re really fucking lucky Section 8 can sympathize about how hard it is to make ends meet because you can’t go to Disneyland or soak up the rays in Mexico and have to settle on a weekend trip to a local destination.
Right. Because if there’s one thing that’s going to net votes for Biden this November, it’s telling people to be happy they’re not on food stamps.
You would be very wrong in that. Very wrong. There would be an overall increase in positive view on the overall economy, because Republicans are much more partisan in how they view these things than Democrats. Nice try, but you couldn’t be more wrong.
See attached link:
OK, now I’m wondering to what extent those views reflect truth. There are any number of possible reasons that actual (not just perceived) economic position might correlate with political views; maybe more Wisconsin Democrats really are better off than Wisconsin Republicans.
I also wonder where the Joe the Plumber effect fits in here. “I don’t want Democrats raising taxes on the rich, because I’m rich! Or at least, I will be, Real Soon Now.”
I know for me, macroeconomic indicators mean little in the grand scheme of things. Factors like unemployment rate, 401k, stock market growth, etc. have little to no relevance in my life. I’m on a fixed income that hasn’t been keeping up with inflation and so my opinion of the economy comes from my own experiences seeing prices continue to rise when I go shopping or out to eat.
I’m 39 and everyone I know in my generation including me are just struggling to keep our heads above water. I have pretty much given up on ever owning my own home, at least on my own. I don’t blame Biden for this however, or any other President. I’m well aware they have little actual impact on the economy. Our capitalist system is fundamentally broken and needs major changes or just needs to be scrapped entirely in favor of a more equitable and democratic economy.
So, there have always been people like you out there. Where do you live (state or metro area) and what do you do for a job?