If the above meta-poll is accurate, it shows big jumps in Bush’s approval at 9/11, start of Iraq war, and Saddam’s capture.
9/11 and Saddam make some sense, or at least are to be debated elsewhere, but I don’t understand the Iraq invasion jump.
Logically (and I realize using logic is probably my first problem), I would expect that whether one supported the war or not, the actual start of the invasion wouldn’t change anyone’s opinion of Bush.
Was there a significant amount of people who disapproved of Bush, supported the war, but thought he wasn’t going to go through with it?
Or was it simply the old “people falling in line behind the drumbeats of war” type thing? And why does that happen?
I’m very strongly leaning towards the “drumbeats of war” explanation, but I hope there’s a another non-lemming like explanation.
That still makes no sense, Reeder. Whether they believed him or not, why would the start of the long-talked-about invasion make a difference?
What I’m trying to figure out it is the mindset of that significant chunk of people who disapproved of Bush before the bombs started falling, but somehow approved of him when the war started.
IIRC around 80% of Americans supported the Iraq war. I don’t see why its surprising that when Bush did something inline with a majority of the voters his popularity went up.
From desperately needing him to be a good leader to thinking he was one was just one small step, one easily taken by many people. And, let’s be fair, he did say and do a lot of the right things then, about going after Al Qaeda and the Taliban, and not demonizing Muslims. He didn’t go off the rails for several months, when he started beating the drums for Iraq.
People then didn’t like Sadaam Hussein talking smack at the US. His talk even made Osama look conciliatory in comparison. So many Americans lumped 9/11 on Sadaam’s lap, true or not.
I think it’s because people don’t want Americans to die. I think the subconscious thought pattern is something like this:
I don’t want American people to die. Our troops are American people, so…
I support our troops. Our troops represent our country, so…
I support our country. Our president also represents our country, so…
I support our president.
Clearly there is a flaw in the logic there, but I think this is the real explanation for this phenomenon.
Simple: ecause the early stages of the war went really, really well.
How much support do you think Bush would have had 4 weeks into the war if we suffered thousands of casualties, and S.H. launched scud missiles into Israel? Bush’s numbers jumped up once S.H. was captured (more good news), but are dropping as the insurgent attacks continue on a regular basis.
Until the bombs started dropping, as you say, it was not entirely clear that there would be a war. There were concerns, there was certainly movement in that direction, but we had seen things happen in Iraq before.
Before the bombs started dropping, everyone talked about an invasion with an “if” in front of it. It is only with hindsight that we can all see how Bush obviously intended to go to war with Iraq from the begining.
So, I suppose, the answer to your question si that yes, people were afraid that President Bush would not invade.
