We’ve had a lot of discussion of the horse-race and of specific results. My question is slightly different: why?
The obvious answer, no matter who you are, is that “Democrats adopted positions I like, and Republicans adopted positions I don’t like.” You can massage that into whatever issues you prioritize/deprioritize, if you want that sweet sweet confirmation bias. I can do the same thing, and it’s really fucking tempting.
But I want to know: what does the evidence say? What do we have hard numbers for, in terms of exit polls, and changes in voting demographics, and other factors?
Pundits love confirmation-biasing the shit out of the election. I’m not especially interested in their self-serving takes, even in the takes of the pundits I agree with. What’s the evidence?
One more time: I’m hoping we can avoid bloviating here, and focus on the evidence.
“It’s the economy stupid!”, is the #1 reason, mainly inflation, mostly high fuel prices.
Some 39% of those asked in the poll of more than 79,000 people said the economy was the most important issue, while 33% put the state of democracy top.
Following that, immigration was named most important by 14% of voters while healthcare, foreign policy and crime were ranked first by a lower share.
Apparently “foreign policy” mostly meant the Iran war.
The voter poll also said that around six in 10 (63%) of those asked said the US made the wrong decision to take military action against Iran. Almost four in 10 (37%) said it was right.
Separately, three-quarters of voters (74%) said the conflict was a crucial or major factor in their vote for Congress and a quarter (26%) said it was a minor factor or not a factor.
The “why” is Donald Trump. He initiated the ongoing war with Iran and sent gas prices rocketing. He insists on tariffs that punish American consumers and does nothing to promote American industry because America is not an industrial nation!
The “problem” was there was something for everyone to dislike about the current administration. Trump campaigned he would lower prices and then instituted tariffs and made prices go up. Trump said he would not start a war and he started a war (which also added to much higher prices). Trump said he would release the Epstein files, he has helped block their release. He was going to fix the immigration problem and created a monster in the form of ICE that make everyone uncomfortable seeing what looks alarmingly like a police state forming. Even if you despise immigrants Trump was taking broad swings no one liked. While the country suffered he was on about his new ballroom. Letting Hegseth be SecDef and taking a wrecking ball to the military. Conservatives like the military and while they might be happy about a ban on trans people they are not keen to see highly decorated generals sacked and all that institutional experience tossed out the window.
And on it goes. Congress, far from reigning him in and using powers they legitimately have to do so instead let him run amok.
In short, something for everyone to hate and it showed.
Observing elections over the years and trying to make sense of it my theory is that independent voters hold sway in all the major elections. They don’t seem to be motivated at all by the media’s rhetoric headlines of the day but rather simply take the current administration’s progress on their promises and if they feel they didn’t deliver are quick to give the other side a shot.
Democrats can celebrate their victories but if they don’t deliver on what they say the power is going to be handed back to the Republicans just as quickly.
The economy is always a big issue in elections, but I think it might have been bigger this time than usual, because there was a clear, direct line between Trump’s actions and the rise in oil prices. Not only does Trump’s economy suck, but it’s very clear that he’s the reason why it sucks.
If the administration had been trying they might give the benefit of the doubt. Not only did the administration not try, the administration often did the opposite.
I found this poll on issues voters were concerned about prior to the election interesting. All of the top issues are pretty much “TFG” just by another name, but government corruption actually being the top concern was a bit of an eye-opener, even if it was just this one poll. A well-deserved eye-opener considering just how openly, blatantly corrupt this this administration has been, but still surprising that it topped cost of living and gas prices
CNBC’s survey of 1,000 registered U.S. voters found 36% of respondents pointing to government corruption as one of the most important issues facing the country right now. The cost of food and groceries came second with 34%, followed by protecting democracy and the price of gas, which garnered 23% each.
This is not a defense of Trump! I expect his terrible economic policies will eventually cause a misery index spike, maybe next year, or maybe a few years after he has left office.
The blue wave in the wake of Trump’s unremarkable economic performance does support the idea that voting decisions are made unconsciously, after which people come up with reasons to justify their decision.
3.7% inflation seems to me a rationalization for a vote rather than a cause.
The following posts express opinions, but not what the OP asked for. Please bring your supporting cites and evidence if you want to participate in this thread. Start a new thread for opinions if you wish. Thanks.
In another thread, I mentioned that one of Trump’s big strengths over the past decade was that he was very good at telling people what they wanted to hear. I’m not saying that his ramblings were well-grounded in reality, but he was selling a vision, such as it was, that appealed to an awful lot of voters.
Over the past year, he seemed to be doing the opposite, going on at length about his ballroom, about taking Greenland, about other guys’ asses - stuff that even many of his supporters couldn’t care less about. He was talking about AI being the greatest thing ever at a time when his base is turning hostile toward it. As I said in the other thread, Trump and other Republicans badly misread the national mood.
I’ve been saying for years that I can’t wait to see what my daughter and her peers will make of this country. Well, this was their first chance to vote, and they voted overwhelmingly Democrat.
["Voters under 30 were the smallest voting block by age, making up just 11 percent of voters in this election, according to early analysis. But young people’s lean toward Democratic candidates in this midterm went the farthest of any age group. Nationally, 66% of voters ages 18-29 voted for a Democratic candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives, compared to 56% of voters 30-44, 51% of voters 45-64, and 53% of voters 65 and up.
I could throw darts at this. For one thing, the 36 percent who put corruption number one could all be people who always vote Democratic, in which case this explains nothing concerning why the blue wave happened.
HOWEVER, I just thought of a way to look at the corruption factor evidence that doesn’t rely on polling. What if we look at past midterm elections when the incumbent presidential party was facing a great deal of negative press coverage concerning corruption? The sample size is tiny, but I checked two.
One is 1974. Gerry Ford had pardoned Nixon, and it was so soon after Watergate that GOP corruption was still at the top of our collective minds. And – 49 House seats, and 4 Senate seats, flipped R to D. Pretty darn close to what happened last week.
Another is 2018, Trump’s first midterm. 41 House seats went R to D. Now, 2 Senate seats went the other way, but a President’s first midterm is not usually as bad as the second, and this still seems to me a worse than average showing for the incumbent presidential party.
So if this tiny, tiny sample size means anything, it could actually be that deep in the voter lizard brain where decision are unconsciously made, voters do not like to vote for underlings of corrupt presidents. It’s could be one thing to be the actual mob boss, and another thing to let yourself be led around by said mob boss.
I leave it to anyone interested to check out how the Teapot Dome scandal played in congressional elections.
It’s important to note the results were often voters rejecting Trump or poorly chosen candidates rather than massive support for Democratic policy.
Turns out people, and especially young voters, are sensitive to inflation and high prices. Trump’s insistence on “vote as if I am on the ballot” and dismissal of economic issues hurt. 90% of voters care about government corruption, and Dems and independents are far more likely to consider Trump self-serving. A war in Iran was unhelpful. And Republicans often chose poor or mediocre candidates, whereas Democratic candidates were often very good. Latinos, Blacks and Women were often put off by performative cruelty or policies deemed unfair.
Cites? These statistics are taken from numerous articles but many of these points are made in the video below from The Economist, a gift link probably only valid for the first few people.