Why did Tunisia transition peacefully in the wake of the Arab Spring?

Great Debates
1

In contrast to the bloodshed experienced by Egypt, Libya and Syria, Tunisia has undergone a fairly peaceful transition since the Arab Spring. Why is this?

If I had to guess, I would say that it’s because Tunisia was more moderate to begin with, not crushing moderate opposition and perhaps because it had a functional civil society not completely dependent on being government cronies. This is a WAG, however, and I know next to nothing about Tunisia except where it is on a map, the name of the capital city and that it used to be a French colony.

Thanks,
Rob

2

Tunisia has the lowest rate of gun ownership per capita in the world.

So that might be a factor as well.

3

The Tunisia and the Maghreb are very different places than the Machreq.

The history of the tunisia is itself one that is very different from the Libya and the Syria, the Egypt. Particularly from the Libye and the Syria, the modern boundearies of the Tunisia, like those of the Morocco and a little less the Algeria correspond well with ancient states, the three franco-maghrebine states correspondences in their boundaries with ancient states before colonization are more like that of the Egypt, they have regional identities that are not just created by the colonial line drawing, unlike the mashreq states

no, this does not seem a useful concept. moderate means what? Nice seeming superificially to the westerners?

The grand difference between the tunisia and the others is in first a much different demographics from them, the birth rates in the maghreb (ex libye) are around the replacement level and there is not the demographic pression.

Second the tunisian regime, partly due to its original founding principals under Bourgibga created a real educated base in society and also since they did not go for the disaster of the soviet modeled socialism, but rather the modified capitalism model of the France, there was much better base to society with wider distribution of the wealth with a kind of middle class - and not just one of state functionaries.

It is also helpful that the core of the Islamist side of the political tendencies had a genuine appreciation of the idea of the model of the republican democratic pollitical engagement. They had also been close witnesses of the horror of the algerian experience. It is necessary to give credit to Ghannouchi and the majority of the leadership of Ennahda who for all the errors they have made, have shown a political maturity in finding compromise within the context of republican democracy. They are taking lessons both from the western democratic experience and the islamic teachings, finding the discourse and the lessons within Islam to find the local cultural roots for their idea that it is better to have an imperfect republican democracy to promote their ideas of moral behaviour than to have “tyrrany” or worse yet “violent chaos” and of course the rejection of the doctrine of takfir as a hateful doctrine without good foundation in the classic fiqh even.

Only the tunisia had all the positive attributes to succeed a revolution in a short term. None of the others had this.

Moderate is a word that the americans like but always seem to mean “those who are friendly to the americans” - the regime Ben ali was not kind to the opposition, even those that were not radical. But the regime of Ben ali was more and more in its last years quite different and narrowly corrupt around its presential family, mostly in fact that of the 2nd wife (the Hairdresser as they called her, she replaced the first). Although it is an easy accusation often made about the ‘bad woman’ in this case it was indeed true, and her brothers were the most corrupt and exploitative.

The very narrow base of extreme corruption probably made the Tunisia different from the wide and army based corruption of the Moubarek.

Also the military and ordinary police remained mostly not political and outside of the corrupt system. Ben Ali disliked them and had a narrow police base in his special services.

The narrow base of corruptoin in power, the wider civil society, the wider eduction, the better socio-demographics, a real private sector and the historical fact of the tunisia as having a coherent history that is centuries older than its colonial form all help.

the greatest difference from the Egypt I think is the narrow base of the corruption - in comparison - and the lack of the “deep state” of the army that exists in Egypt (and has the ancient mamlouk tradition).

no it is not a factor. There are and were many guns to be bought from the gun runners in the sahara, those that have fueled the Algerian civil war.Then of course came libya and in its collapse the tunisian gun laws have no meaning. If you want a n AK or a beretta or anything, you can get it easily.

But it is true Tunisia and the maghreb in general do not have the gun culture of the masheq. This is different. Maybe it is the old colonial regime systems, maybe something else.

4

I think the fact that Tunisia is not very ethnically diverse also had something to do with it. It’s hard to fan up oppression of Them when Them is Us.

Ben Ali also did the country a favor by bailing early, preventing months of civil war and bloodshed.

5

Yes, the tunisians do not perceive themselves as having numerous ethnicities and generally think of themselves as all tunisian, not by tribe or by group like “kurd”, but it must be cautioned to the readers not familiar that in fact there is substantial difference north to south and between north coastal cities and the interior. it is more the history

The leaving of Ben Ali quickly and without substantial violence is a real contribution.

6

Intelligent and informative comments from Ramira, i thought.

7

There have been a number of rather bloody Islamist terror attacks in Tunisia. Not so peaceful.

8

Agreed. Despite his/her instance that moderate is an abstract term that only ever means what America likes then goes on to credit the success of the Tunisian Arab Spring to a moderate culture.

9

the usual quality of observation from the preconcieved opinions of the poster. Of course the number is two since the revolution, only one more than the Scandinavia’s own incidents in the same time period, and not any kind of comparison for example with the united states and its mass shootings… obviously one must fear tunisia of course, because muslims…

so useful the observation.

you can then quote where I said “only”

however it remains the same that the term moderate is used here again and again without any clear meaning other than meaning familiar to the americans or pro american.

10

I also do not think there is any useful idea of “moderate culture” and what I have identified is about objective factors that have direct measurable influences, not undefined abstraction. The lower pressure of the demographics and the specific history of a community identity. And the better economic and sociological conditions, with less stress between the social groups, of the tunisia must have impact, as less stress on the ecology of the rural districts although it is not the case in the south desertic regions, where it is not a surprise the social tension is higher and where one sees more radicalisms.

asserting “moderate culture” is without any real meaning.

11

Eh. 22 killed + 38 killed (+ another attack foiled). No we haven’t had that kind of terror attacks around here recently. Or ever for that matter. It was enough for the Brits to evacuate 3000 of their citizens, and in fact I was supposed to have attended some event there which was also cancelled. So no I wouldn’t say it was an everyday event.

12

Oh yes such gross dangerous places… like norway or the usa. of course you live in a small country where it is more known to drink themselves to death, i think the number six in the world for that cause, so the perception of the risks may be different even if we decide to ignore the real origin of the comment. As a country that has gone through a revolution, the violence in the Tunisia, with two shooting incidents, is extremely low and does not compare badly to the comparable experiences globally. It is bad of course for the Tunisian tourism, which is what the minority radicals wanted to destabilise, but it does not indicate any historical unusual level of the violence for a revolution that overthrows a dictatorship.

since it is clear there was no point other than the preconcieved prejudices and the empty disparaging from that in your comment, we can move forward

13

I live in Spain these days. And oh man, you’re kinda high strung aren’t you? I actually lived in several of these countries you say I fear so much over the last 18 months or so. 2-3 months in Egypt, some time in Morocco, and a month in Indonesia. Particular for Egypt it was mainly me and the Russians since Western tourists had cleared out. I’m planning a bit to go to Tunisia early next year. I expect it’ll be me, Ivan & Natasha again since Western people tend to clear out at the sign of trouble. That’s great for me, and since the danger is clearly overstated it’s not a problem really. But saying they haven’t had a problem with Islamists is just simply incorrect.

14

That is very good. Luckily no person has actually said that.

useful to build the strawmen it appear.

15

She did nothing of the sort. Pointed out the differences between Tunisia and the other places.

I would say that one of the reasons for Tunisia’s relative survival is that unlike the others its a small country and not in a particularly strategic location (yet anyway), meaning that unlike elsewhere, you don’t have interested neighbours and extra-regional actors trying to influence events.

16

One of the things I recall from my reading of world news… it appeared to me that Tunisia did not have a very prominent army or secret police - so it was “moderate” to begin with, as in things were not heavily totalitarian. Is this the case?

The impediment to democracy in many countries is that the people have to trust the authorities. Despite the news from the USA, for example, most people there expect if their home is burgled, they can call the cops who will make a honest and reasonable effort to find the perpetrator; if you call the police over a loud party next door or someone’s unsafe driving, they will do a reasonable job of addressing the problem, and you do not need to pay a bribe for them to do their job, and despite some small-town exceptions perhaps, American police will fulfill these laws relatively equally for all. In many third world countries, the police are (or include) thugs, whose job is to intimidate the population so they do what they are told and don’t complain. Involving the authorities in your local problems is a bad idea.

This trust needs to extend all the way to the top. You have to trust your leaders won’t blatantly steal elections, but bow to the will of the people They will avoid taking bribes. and so on. Again, the opposite is true in many third-world countries.

My impression was that Tunisia was well on the way to this level of moderation and trust, unlike the other Arab Spring countries whose lack of this trust has cause various degrees of backsliding back into anarchy or the old ways.

17

I have already discussed this.

the moukhaberat, the secret police of the Tunisia were omni-present, and there was extensive surveillance on all things, including trying to capture the email traffic.

None of what you talk about are very relevant to the tunisian case. I can assure you, one avoided the police in the Tunisia before hand and the bribes were integral to the lower experience - it is in fact what touched off the protests in the Tunisia!

How one can speculate that the tunisia was on its way to trusting the police…

18

In Spain? Isn’t it this country where 200 people have been killed in a terror attack? not exactly a “peaceful” place.

If you’re clearly aware that the danger is overstated, then why did you feel the need to state that Tunisia isn’t that peacuful?

As Ramira correctly pointed out, there hasn’t been any more terrorism in Tunisia than in numerous other countries, including many western ones. And if you extend “not peaceful” beyond the strict limits of Islamism terrorism that you probably have in mind, Tunisia is indeed vastly more peaceful than the USA, for instance.

And the fact that it’s peaceful not only after a revolution, but also despite being bordered by two countries where Islamism has caused massive troubles, one of them not even being a functional country at the moment, is in fact pretty remarkable. I find almost astonishing there hasn’t been way more spill over in Tunisia from Algeria and Libya, to be frank.

19

because not w europeans

yes in fact it is particularly from the Libya and the southern desert borders that are almost impossible to correctly police.

20

On the flip side is Yemen, which is second only to the U.S in terms of gun ownership. Heck some of them go out in public wit daggers hidden away.

Pretty easy for someone to get their hands on weapons in Yemen.

I have to say the first step is that Zine el-Abedine Ben Ali left after just one month of protests. This was a crucial factor, besides others’ already mentioned. Ben Ali’s actions contrast with those of Gaddafi who along with his sons said they would fight till the death, or Assad who decides to bomb his own country.

Oh and Ben Ali’s fleeing was good for his own safety also.