Why do airline prices fluctuate from day to day?

I am flying from New York to Dallas on October 31st. I found a ticket that cost $288 round trip. I came back the next day and the cost was $400. Because I needed the ticket I bought it at the much higher price. Then yesterday I got an email from a travel site advertising the flight at $288 again. I contacted the customer service department and they said that it costs $150 to do anything to your ticket at all (not just switching flights, but to have them even adjust the spelling of your name costs $150) so unless the cost difference is more than $150 it isn’t in my best interest to request they make the change. I went above her head to her supervisor who told me the same thing.

What the hell? The price rose for 1 day? Why in the world would the price go up and then back down like that in a 6 day period of time? And more than that why would they possibly chance losing a frequent flier who spends a good amount of money with their airline over $112 difference in price?

The answer to this is buried in the incredibly complex algorithms airlines use to set seat pricing based on sales, route, competition, volume, phases of the moon, and whatever.
For your example, one possibility might be that there was a run on seats on your flight, the algorithm predicted that the flight was filling up, and so it decided it didn’t need to discount so much to fill it up. The next day the run evaporated, the new prediction was that there would be empty seats, and they put the discount in again to fill them. That’s almost certainly not the answer, but it shows the principle. Basically, you want to maximize the price per seat, but it is better to fill a seat at a discount than fly with that seat empty and making no money at all.

Their response was this:

So basically they advised that they charge a fee to charge me less money, which is a real easy way to avoid giving me the credit for the difference. This makes me want to build a helipcopter out of PVC pipes or something to avoid this whole mess.

The algorithms are based on history. I have worked with the computers for the UA, Delta, and USAirways and hotels have similar systems.

Basically the data is fed into the computer, the weather, the number planes, the number of passengers (pax) and a whole host of other things.

Then the computer says:

Today looks like this:

On the last day that looked like today this is what happened.

It then presents the extremes from high sell, to low sell on days that were exactly like that. Then it gives an average and the computer suggests prices.

Now you have revenue managers. These were once called reservations managers they mange the computer. The longer the system runs the more accurate it is, because it has more data.

Most systems run automated, airlines update every 10 minutes (though some may wait as long as an hour). Hotels can do any updating from 15 minutes to once a day.

So in otherwords at 2pm you call get a price, and the reservationist or computer system says “On this day this is what happened.” When you call back at 2:15pm it’s different because the computer updated and the day at 2:15pm is different from 2:00pm

To fully understand this, remember the Internet and over the phone reservationists also record turn downs. For instance, if you call in at 2pm and get a quote and say “that’s too high,” the reservationist feeds that in as a “Price turndown.” If you say “Thanks I was just looking” the reservationist feeds in “inquiry only.”

Obviously when you’re online the turndowns are less precise and are weighted accordingly.

So at 2pm you may have had, weather conditions are this, sold seats are this, reservations pending are this, and turn downs are this number (also many other things are in there don’t forget)

As you can see by 2:15pm that will have changed.

Airlines and hotels have revenue managers to watch this seed. For instance September 11th 2001 and the days after have to be completly thrown out of computer data, 'cause they are so unusual they’d make the “seed” of data less accurate.

Revenue managers bonuses and other bonuses are based on sells. A perfect sell will get you a high bonus. The number of “walks” or “bumps” will push this bonus down. So revenue managers have a lot of pressure to be accurate.

My biggest beef with this system is it assume the past will always be the same as the future. My gripe is dissmissed as “That’s why we have revenue manager to imput odd things into the system to keep it accurate.”

And it does seem to work. Revenue managers are really looked at. It’s always I saw two empty seats on the plane, WHY did that happen and what could you have done to sell them? You constantly have to justify your work to your bosses so it’s kind of a pressure job.

As for fees, I used to do Six Sigma work and those are put in simply because they can. Whatever passengers will tolerate is put up with.

I’ll give you an example from hotels. In NYC and Chicago, hotels will often charge to hold your luggage. Outside of the bigger cities most people will balk at this and those hotels don’t charge.

When I worked for Starwood, we put coffee in the rooms. We found that in Westin and Sheraton guests simply would not tolerate having to pay for that coffee in the room. However at the upper scale “W Hotels” brand, the coffee bag was placed in the mini-fridge and costs. Why? Simply because the type of person that stays at a “W Hotel” will pay for it.

Prices for airlines and hotels are just an example of “extreme” revenue management, but it exists in most places. For instance, resturants offer early bird speicals, to fill tables. The oil change place I walk by gives you $5.00 off to come in at posted time. Stores have sales and will often matched published prices.

It seems more resonable simply because they prices jump only once a week or less.

In the future, I recommend using this site when you are looking for travel. It predicts based on recent price activity whether you should buy the ticket or wait. Here is an example that I used with traveling from LaGuardia to Dallas on 10/31 and returning 11/7. I usually don’t book from there, I just use it to look up the best price, then I go to the airline’s site and buy it direct.

FYI, Southwest doesn’t charge you for changing flights bought online. (I don’t know if you’re charged for other methods of booking–I’ve only booked online.) I recently booked a flight from BWI to Indianapolis, and a week or two later had to change the return flight to a later time. I went to the Web site and noticed that the price for the new flight was a few bucks lower. I got a credit for the difference.

I had to do the same thing with the first leg a week or two later, and it was the same story: the price had gone down. So I now have about $20 in credit with Southwest. Any other airline I’ve dealt with would have charged me $50-200 to make these changes.

The official term for this is Yield Management

Do they actually only look for the previous day with the best fit, or do they use a model to predict utilization, or do they do both? I wouldn’t think finding the best day would be very compute intensive. A long time ago I worked for a company that sold supercomputers fitted with proprietary algorithms to airlines for yield management.

But why should they be obligated to give you a credit for the difference? You agreed to the price when you bought the ticket.

Sure, a lot of businesses will do that sort of thing, but they’re not required to, and the costs of doing so are built into the price that you pay. If airlines were required to do such a thing, the prices would in general be much higher, because they couldn’t lower prices to fill seats without lowering prices for everyone, so planes would fly with empty seats more often, and the whole industry would be much less efficient.

They aren’t required to give the money at all. I just made sure they were aware that after this flight I will never again spend a moment of my time in an American Airlines plane. I am a frequent flyer with them and I fly several times a year, so this plus the woman who screamed at me last time I had a problem have quickly added up to me spending my money elsewhere. A $112 credit would have earned them several thousand dollars of my money over the next couple of years and they knew that from pulling up my frequent flyer number. If they don’t want to give me the credit that is absolutely their choice to make but I hope they remember that I have a choice when I fly and I will never, ever choose to fly with them again.

I sympathize, I really do.

But, to them, the frequent fliers who are valuable are the ones who don’t care about how much the flight costs. I’m presuming that you’re an FF for business reasons, and this flight was for pleasure?

Fair enough. That’s your prerogative.

But, unless I’m mistaken, all airlines have the same policy. Are you just going to switch airlines every time you’re unlucky enough to buy a ticket that is later reduced in price? Might leave you with few options after a while, and is not likely to be taken seriously by the management of the airline. If they were losing customers to a competitor because their policies were worse for the customer than their competitor’s then they might change them. Presumably, they’ll get as many customers from people who refuse to do business with their competitors over the exact same issue. No net change means no incentive to change their policies.

Also, it seems silly to refuse to do business with a company because of some policy, and instead do business with their competitor, which has the same policy.

Not Southwest, as I mentioned above.

What you’ve said may be true, but it’s bad customer service to refuse to make a minor concession to a long-term customer who is making a direct complaint. Other airlines may have the same policies, but they may be more flexible in dealing with an irate customer.

Although I have to say, that hasn’t been my experience. Last year I booked a $1,000 flight to China on United and realized within an hour and a half that I couldn’t go. I could have canceled within an hour with no penalty, but even though I was only a few minutes outside the deadline, they refused to cancel the ticket and issue a full refund. I had to accept a credit and a $150 penalty.

Airlines are hard up these days and are increasing their fees and being pretty rigid about their policies.

I found your whole post interesting, but this paragraph fascinated me. I do not drink coffee so I never made coffee in my room. Do hotels charge for the pack of coffee in my room, if I used it (or pilfered it)? I always assumed it was complimentary.

Because they have no clue how ro run a fucking business which is why they’ve been at or near bankruptcy several times. It’s the same reason why you can’t walk up to the counter at the airport and buy a ticket an hour before the flight leaves for less than 500% markup.

Just FYI flying a few times a year isn’t a frequent flyer any more. Maybe in the 80’s but not today. You need to fly several times a month on the same airline to even be acknowledged as anything more than the cattle. Few times a year means nothing to them.

The real problem is that customer service, fees, etc. don’t get presented to you when you’re making your choice at one of the price-comparison sites. The price-comparison sites are what destroyed the industry’s unjustified profitability (in beautiful, effective capitalist form) but they do not include many factors. So, the airlines milk those other factors, such as hidden fees, leg room, and ammenities, to reduce the one factor that is transparent–price.

And hell, maybe they raise prices periodically just to scare people into buying tickets (or to make them feel they’re getting a deal). These psychological tricks surely factor into the algorithms. The fact that the price is a stepwise function (288 vs 400) must be a psychological factor too. If it was just down to the math, the price would fluctuate smoothly.

They may, but I really can’t blame the airline at all for enforcing their own, published policy. “Do you price match a competitor” or “Do you offer a credit if I find this same itinerary at a lower fare later” are questions one should ask before agreeing to a purchase price.

I’m just a customer, but it appears that the hotel’s policy is that if you are stupid enough to pay for a really expensive room (or are on an expense account or have so much money you don’t care) you also will be willing to pay for stuff you get for free at a cheaper hotel. We went across the country last November and stayed in motels that ranged from $40 - $70 s night, and always got internet free. When I stay at $150 - $200 a night hotels for work, it always costs.
I’ve never run into pay coffee, but I believe it.

Lots of companies allow sales agents to relax rules for good customers. Perhaps good customers for airlines only include triple Platinum members.

For the rest of us, air travel is like going on the Running Dog Bus Company, with less leg room and baggage charges.