In a past thread I got into an argument with someone over whether or not colleges today actively discriminate against Asians or not. What I found was that when it came to those who assumed the conspiracy-theoretic mindset, counter-evidence was useless.
The SAT stops mattering past a certain point? Doesn’t matter – if an admissions officer said this, they must have been lying to cover up their discrimination. People who get accepted can be demonstrably shown to have profiles containing more than just scores? Doesn’t matter – the “soft factors” are just an excuse to be racist. Berkeley’s admission history shows a clear counter-example to the hypothesis based on its race-blind admissions pivot in an Asian-centric location? Ignored. Activities are consistent among countless schools? Irrelevant; the Ivies used to discriminate against Jews and Asians! The list goes on.
The problem is that conspiracy theories are unfalsifiable by their believers. Any attempt to provide counter-evidence is futile. The evidence is either accused of being faked, or it’s ignored/misunderstood altogether. Conspiracy theorists also tend to rely on shoddy science/facts/speculation and are extremely guilty of confirmation bias to the point where ANYTHING that might even remotely support their hypothesis, no matter how tenuous, is accepted. But mounds of evidence pointing the other direction? Nope!
What sucks, though, is when some secretive, sketchy conspiracy theory turns out to be true. Yes, colleges used to discriminate by race unfairly. Yes, things like MK Ultra existed. Yes, there was a dishonest “incident” via the Gulf of Tonkin. Yes, the WMD/Iraq thing was a mess.
This is all hindsight bias, though. You also have to keep in mind that a conspiracy becomes harder to maintain the bigger it becomes. Someone always leaks, and evidence becomes too hard to hide. In order to keep a mass conspiracy hidden, it has to be indistinguishable from that conspiracy not existing in the first place, and that’s incredibly difficult to pull off in terms of maintaining that level of ironclad consistency. Such conspiracies are very unlikely to exist.
This is why conspiracy theories tend to get rejected. When someone holds onto an extremely convoluted, improbable, tenuous, ill-informed, emotionally-driven theory and refuses to listen to reason… it’s not good. It’s like talking to a crazy person. They’ll believe whatever they want to believe even if the evidence is missing or not very compelling because “everyone’s in on it” without acknowledging just how difficult that would actually be to pull off.