The North Koreans are pissed they’re being condemned by the U.N Security Council for the missile launch they feel was their sovereign right. However, it’s their provocative scrapping of the six party talks and their promise to never again come to the table that puzzles me.
I get why the North Korean government feels the way it does, I get why the Chinese government continues to support their little Western-harassing monkey, but I don’t get their flexibility in North Korea determining it’s own international affairs. There is absolutely no doubt North Korea is firmly in China’s sphere of influence to the point of utter dependence, I have no doubt there are plenty of juicy secret conferences where China plainly tells North Korea whats what, but I would think reckless mouthy leadership just outside of China’s border publicly embarrasses THEM, all the more because it’s obvious who they really belong too.
Well, China doesn’t tell North Korea what to do. There may be secret conferences, but it isn’t big brother telling little brother what to do. China has influence on the DPRK, no doubt, but China doesn’t really want to tell other countries what to do, for fear that more powerful countries may try to tell China what to do. That’s a very touchy issue for the Chinese leadership.
And, let’s get real. DPRK is run by screwballs and are more likely to take advice from a 10 foot pink bunny than anyone else.
And really, what’s China going to do, invade North Korea? Chinese civilization hasn’t lasted 5,000 years by being reckless. They understand the waiting game very well.
Those students didn’t have millions of AK-47’s or nuclear capability. The Chinese government isn’t any dumber than ours, and it knows how to negotiate.
This is the situation now, but how did it even get like this? The US is friendly with Mexico, but would still have a stake in it’s neighbors not being nuclear capable.
As others have said, China doesn’t run North Korea…nor do they really want too actually. The Chinese put up with it because it’s in their best interest to keep North Korea from completely flying apart with unknown but probably fairly horrible consequences. China has already been inundated by floods of North Korean refugees during 'lil Kimmy’s playful periods when millions of NK’s were starving to death or attempting to enjoy a repast of tree bark and boiled grass…the last thing they want to do is to push NK over the edge by getting Kim et al’s backs up…which is exactly what would happen if they publicly slapped down NK or publicly told them what to do.
Kim et al are the definition of folks who would cut off their noses to spite their face. Consider…how would you feel if you had such a rabid dog on YOUR borders? You’d probably try and keep them in your sphere of influence too…
What choice did they have? They didn’t create North Korea, so that was completely out of their hands. They didn’t (initially) have a lot of influence over the North Korean’s…the Soviets were the ones who supported NK early on, gave them technical and military assistance, etc etc. They couldn’t invade NK, at least not at it’s inception…even after the Korean War China didn’t really have the chance to change the country by military conquest for a variety of reasons, including America, the Soviet Union, South Korea…and North Korea who would have fought the Chinese tooth and nail.
So…what other choice did China have in all of this? The only thing they could have done is not support NK at all…which really wasn’t an option either, again for a variety of reasons.
Almost one million Chinese soldiers stood in Korean after the war, what are you talking about? That’s like saying the Soviet Union didn’t really have a lot of influence on East Germany after WWII.
Perhaps not, but they midwifed it – that is, the Communists would have been utterly defeated in the Korean War without Chinese intervention. Ya gotta wonder why they did it.
And the Soviets had advisors in country too. What do you suppose would have happened if China had decided to over throw the government or to annex Korea? Short of doing that, how exactly do you suppose China could have MADE the NK’s become their puppet?
I never disputed that China has influence…but honestly during the Korean War the NK’s looked on China as more of a brute labor pool (they weren’t that highly regarded in North Korea at the time), while they looked on the Soviets as their main ally. That relationship underwent a subtle change OVER TIME…as did the relations between China and the Soviets…but right after the Korean War it was the Soviets who had the most influence…and they would have been a bit tense if China had decided to exert more influence on NK than they already had.
The two aren’t comparable at all. Your analogy is flawed…deeply.
Oooh, I know! I know! Is it because they were…Communists?
The ideological communist regime that supported their North Korean fellow travelers is long gone. The current regime has inherited the previous regime’s ties to North Korea but they aren’t sure what to do with it. They don’t want North Korea to fail and send millions of refugees into China, they don’t want South Korea to take over the North and become more powerful (in the long run), they don’t want the US to look too good. And so for now the status quo suits them.
I’m with the OP. What does China expect to happen if they just stop supplying North Korea? Hypothetically speaking (and maybe not so hypothetical given the current economic climate), let’s say the Chinese government decides they have enough hungry mouths at home and would rather spend resources within their borders than without. Kim and his cronies could bluster all they want, but what are they going to do, invade China? Even a nutcase of that degree wouldn’t pit his underfed troops against the world’s largest standing active army (over two million members, cite.) And if I’m reading my maps correctly, China doesn’t have South Korea’s problem of major cities vulnerable to artillery near the North Korean border. China isn’t known for tolerating dissent within its borders and is barely considerate of the well-being of its own citizens. So why on earth does China not only put up, but support, this neighbor?
No, China didn’t midwife North Korea…that was a deal between the Western Powers (chiefly the US and the Soviets, though the other MAJOR powers were involved as well…as was China, but very much in a secondary or even tertiary role).
As for why China intervened, it’s no great mystery. China wanted to assert themselves as a local power. Korea is on China’s border. Also, China wanted to start asserting itself within the Communist sphere as a local, Asian power, that other local, Asian Communist countries could look toward (as opposed to the Soviets). Also, even this early on the Chinese and Soviets were rivals…China had an image problem wrt the Soviets (they were looked down on as a lesser, weaker, less technologically able partner in the Communist pantheon of the time).
None of these things put China in the puppet masters seat wrt NK, especially in the Korean War era…if anyone was the puppet master then it was the Soviets. And even they had only nominal puppet mastery of the NK’s, who were as crazy and contentious as they are today ('lil Kimmy’s father being just about as bat shit nuts-o as his son is).
Personally, I think it’s in China’s interest to have North Korea be nutso. It gives them a tool for affecting the local climate. The West is getting too friendly in the area, NK chases them out. Japan starts spending more on military, NK forces them to back off on it again.
It’s kind of like having your own pet bully who you can pretend isn’t doing your bidding. And when you’re dealing with a crazy, you really don’t have to work hard to get them to do something outrageous. Casually drop a line about something that would set NK off, and they’ll go off and deal with it. NK complains about something you just kind of go, “Mmm yes, I hear you brother, but perhaps now is not the time?” Leading a crazy person isn’t too hard…in particular instances.
Of course, possibly China doesn’t have their hand in it at all. The point remains that it wouldn’t be a bad thing for them to have.
Personally, I think and even hope that China is leading Kim Il along. I suspect they are simply because he has been able to last so long even though he’s -that- clearly insane.
You make it sound so easy. What can China expect to happen if it just stops supplying NK? Well, then China would have a country on it’s long, long border that was stubborn, crazy, AND pissed off and starving. Why wouldn’t KJI invade China? Just what would he have to lose in this situation? He’s going to die anyway once his inner guard runs out of food. Or do you think he’s going to give in to a foreign power in front of his people? Sorry, those are sane nations you’re thinking about. KJ’s a loon.
You’re right, however; he probably wouldn’t invade China. He would turn his troops around and march into South Korea where he’d be beaten. But not before he succeeded in getting millions of people killed. And SK’s infrastructure would be destroyed. And the US Army would take massive casualties, and the UN would be stretched to the limit, and when it comes time to point fingers as to who set NK off, guess who eeeeeeveryone’s going to be looking at.
I’m no fan of China, but I’m sure glad they’re doing their part to defuse the situation instead of making it worse. China does business with NK in spite of all the bluster for the same reason we do business with Saudia Arabia in spite of their human rights record: Because not doing so wouldn’t solve anything, and it would make a bad situation a thousand times worse.
China looks positively responsible and like a country than can be dealt with by other responsible countries when compared to North Korea. They aren’t going to initiate hostilities and blow that credibility. I have no doubt that they could walk all over NK in a week’s time. But what is the upside? There is a significant chance that NK would not want to become a Chinese vassal state, but rather unite with SK. If it went smoothly, all would be lucky, but suppose that riled things up all over the empire? That would actually be likely. Think of China’s thinking about NK as pretty much the same as Taiwan: they look good being occasionally belligerent, but not killing anyone.
China could end the reign of the current NK regime any time it wanted to. But if it did it may not be able to control what happened next. If the chosen succesor to KJI was not succesful in keeping the people down. Tens of thousands of refugees could head to the Chinese border and then China has a crisis on its hands. If the failure of a succesor regime in North Korea leads to reunification then China has a large Western aligned country on its border. A client state that has starving population and a dependent leadership is preferable to both likely alternatives. China has not paid any price for its sponsorship of the Norks and absent any move by the Japanese is unlikely to.