This question can also be asked of Bin Laden as well, since there’s a few parallels.
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[li]We know they’re out there somewhere, hiding.[/li][li]U.S. comes in, drops a lot of bombs.[/li][li]Ari Fleischer et al say, “We think he’s dead but we’re not sure”[/li][li]A few weeks later, a video or audio tape surfaces featuring SH/ObL but with no clear indication of when it was made.[/li][li]Cycle repeats.[/li][/list=1] The question is, if it’s so important to show the world to show he’s alive, why isn’t there clearer evidence as to the origin of these tapes? Why isn’t Saddam saying, “it’s April 9, my big statue just fell, but I’m still here,” or Osama saying something similar? Basically, why all the uncertainty?
if someone was flying around raining missles trying to kill YOU… wouldn’t you see a little bit of an adavantage to the people thinking your not alive anymore?
That might be the case now but certainly not when the war was still going on and the Iraqi authorities were eager to underpin that Saddam is fine. He could easily have proven it by, say, citing ther New York Times’ headline of last day. But he didn’t.
I was thinking about the same thing, and the only answer I could come up with was the idea that Saddam would probably feel as if he was yielding to the invadors if he did something like this - he’s alive, that’s all you need to know. He doesn’t have to prove this, because if we say so, he is. Maybe this was the idea behind all this.
Well, the possible rational were he to be alive could be:
If you’re a Saddam/ObL supporter, and you see a tape with no clear indication of the date of creation, you’re likely to believe anyhoo that he is alive: “duh, I mean, just look at the TV, there’s a tape, he’s right there.”
If you’re not, and you see a tape with no clear indication of its date of creation, you’re likely to believe that it was recorded a while ago, when there weren’t any bombs dropping on Saddam/ObL’s head. The lack of any clear date or frame of reference on the tape may tip you in favor of the “he’s dead” camp, and maybe that idea helps to convince you that you don’t need to hunt for him as vigorously or at all.
Both reactions work in their favor. But of course this is a generalization and all generalizations are false etc.
Uncertainty is a key modus operandi of terrorism, torture and oppression. It keeps people off-balance. It keeps people afraid. Look how 30 years of uncertainty have the Iraqis tearing up streets looking for secret underground prisons. Why was Saddam able to remain in power for so long when it seems he was more paper tiger than a real one? Uncertainty. What keeps many Iraqis from denouncing him even now? Uncertainty.
I think we assume too much cunning when we ponder whether tapes and recordings are old or new. The simplest explanation is usually the correct one (Occam’s Razor). Saddam Hussein is alive and so is Osama Bin Laden. Not reflecting upon current events keeps both the populace and the coalition uncertain. The people wonder if Saddam is still in charge (as none of them is in any position to be able to confirm or deny) and we (the coalition) remain uncertain as to whether our objective has been met.
Just as we assume that Saddam and family use doubles, we should also assume that they use disguises and alternate identities. My guess is that, if they are not dead, they are all out of the country at this point and well on the way to being settled somewhere else - and not necessarily in the Islamic world.
I got to agree with you there, owlofcreamcheese, that would be quite an advantage, although you would want to let your troops know somehow that you were still around.
