Well, so far in 2020, he’s lost votes he was getting in 2016:
BS in IOWA:
2016 – 84,870 (=49.6% of 171,109*)
2020 – 45,936 (=26.1% of 176,000)
I. DEM TURNOUT:
2016 - 171,109**
2020 – 176,000 (versus 238,000 in 2008) BS in NEW HAMPSHIRE:
2016 – 151,000 votes (60.4% of NH Dem primary voters)
2020 – 75,110 (25.8%)
When Sanders supporters have been asked about this on-air, the only answer I’ve heard them make is some variation on ‘well, in 2020 there are more choices.’
But if their main argument is that Bernie Sanders is the candidate who generates enthusiasm, then shouldn’t at least as many people who were enthusiastic about him in 2016, be enthusiastic about him in 2020?
If a main selling point for Sanders is that he will bring out people who’ve never before voted, then how is that good if he’s losing people who normally vote? (If you posit that his 2020 numbers are made up of new voters, then the fact that the 2020 numbers are much smaller than the 2016 numbers means that he’s lost ‘reliable voters’ who did vote for him in 2016 but declined to do so in 2020.)
I just can’t see a way of spinning these facts as being supportive of the “Sanders is the vote-getter, Sanders is the one who will increase turnout” argument.
They are far better at calculating what their goals are and what they want to achieve than you are; I mean; you don’t seem to know fuck all about them.
But those statements land right on the chin with Bernie. He IS a socialist.
It would be like if the Republicans nominated the Grand Wizard of the KKK as their candidate under the theory that the left will call them racists anyways, so that won’t hurt a thing.
It’s a big field in a sui generis historic moment. To me this just says “Axe to grind.” Try editing the emotion and interpretation words out of it and it ceases to exist. I don’t see him as a loser just because he didn’t hold those points. Trump is a loser too. He lost the popular vote. So what? It wasn’t a race to get it, nor is it a race to keep NH percentages.
Do you think bernie can compete for the obama/ trump voters?
I was about to say the same thing, except that it’d be like if Republicans nominated a serial sexual assaulter and an out-and-out racist under the theory that the left would call them a racist misogynist anyway, so it wouldn’t hurt a thing.
That cute, but it misperceives what voters think. Yes, those on the left see racism and sexual assault. Others see enforcing immigration laws and locker room talk.
Bernie admits and is proud of what he is accused of. Republicans can survive accusations of racism because there is debate over the truth of them. The parallel would be a GOP nominee who freely admitted that he hates Mexicans and thinks that they are inferior…along with black and Jews.
Then you would have confirmed the previously unverified and over the top allegations by having your candidate admit it. There is a huge difference between an inference and outright fact.
I’ve absolutely given up making firm predictions since 2016, but… I actually am VERY concerned about this issue. This sounds a lot more conspiratorial than I normally like to be but… I very strongly suspect that there’s some level of coordination among the Fox News etc cabal to all agree to GO EASY on Bernie, hoping that he becomes the nominee, at which point the sludgegates will open.
Why do I think that? Because, frankly, I’m amazed how little we have heard from the right so far about Bernie’s past. Trump has attacked (in his own grossly effective way) so many of his opponents, with his idiotic nicknames. Pochohantas, “little” Mike, etc. He was so desperate to attack Biden that he got himself impeached over it. But what’s his nickname for Bernie? Is there one?
There’s no way that there isn’t a massive file full of factoids to present out of context… here’s a photo of Bernie with a hammer and sickle flag. Here’s a quote where it sure sounds like he’s saying that Venezuela and Cuba are better than the USA. Etc etc etc. I just can’t imagine that he’s not vastly more vulnerable to that sort of thing than any other major dem candidate, given the way he has spent his public life.
Are my predictions correct? Would they prove decisive? Would America actually care? Beats the hell out of me. But I think Bernie has the potential to suffer FAR more from being the 24/7 target of the sludge machine than any other candidate.
To a populist like Bernie, though, he may be immune to sludge just like Trump in 2016. At a certain point, a duck’s feathers get grease-saturated and water just rolls right off.
We already knew that lots of Americans either tolerate or even welcome racism and misogyny.
This is false. Bernie rejects communism and has always done so. He’s a socialist, which is different than a communist. Lots of folks don’t see a difference, but they’re as different as the USSR’s system and Canada’s system are different.
No, they survive these accusations because lots of Americans tolerate or welcome racism. Just like the Democratic party for over a century, which targeted and capitalized on support from racist voters. Without the racists, the Republicans would be a small, regional party at best. Without the misogynists too, they probably couldn’t win in a single state.
I don’t fear that the significant-but-not-decisive group of hardcore Bernie fans will suddenly read a quote from him in the past, slap themselves on the forehead, and say “wait, THAT’S the kind of thing he says?” and abandon him. But the question is whether he can broaden is appeal to moderates, sane Republicans, people-who-voted-for-Trump-because-they-hate-the-system, etc, etc. Would some of those be initially attracted to him because they’d heard good buzz and seen a few soundbites they liked, but then be turned back off by the presumed mountain of sludge?
Would you like an opinion from a political commentator with decent credentials? Here you go:
Any opinion of the November election at this point is going to be based on nothing more than the author’s beliefs, and maybe a survey of what some other people believe based on the present circumstances. I can’t say that the columnist I’ve cited will be proved correct in 8 1/2 months. Feel free to counter with a column by someone with a different opinion. You won’t be able to honestly state as fact that their opinion will be proved correct in 8 1/2 months either.
Its’s simple. Trump isn’t attacking Bernie, because he wants Bernie to be the nominee, because he believes strongly that Bernie can’t win an election against him. I agree with him.