I don’t think based on what we know now there is enough to “overcome” the claim of self-defense beyond a reasonable doubt. I think there is certainly enough to charge (although my reading of the Florida statute seemed to suggest premeditation and willful malice were parts of the murder statute so I do think manslaughter would be much more likely an appropriate charge, I’ll reread the Florida statute at some point), and I think there is enough if the prosecutor lays it out the jury will be left with a hard decision. I wouldn’t want to bet on the outcome though, I think it’d be a close call.
If I was his defense attorney my explanation for the actions of Zimmerman would basically be that he was simply following Trayvon Martin because he did not want him to get away. That Trayvon observed Zimmerman following him and became agitated at being followed and that Trayvon initiated a fight, beat Zimmerman to the ground, and Zimmerman (after yelling for help and receiving none) used his gun in self defense.
I think the fact that Zimmerman could have stayed in his car will help the prosecution. I think the fact that you can’t prove any motive for Trayvon attacking Zimmerman will help the prosecution.
I think a lot of things will help the prosecution, really. But I do think the defense could put together a decent narrative as well. I said earlier it’d be a hard decision, but the more I think about it I just don’t think I could really decide. It’s too important a matter to decide based on “what we know right now”, I’d want the full facts that the police have. If Zimmerman fired at Trayvon from a prone position, and the bullet wound shows evidence it came into Trayvon’s chest from below, that would help Zimmerman’s narrative. If we know the precise nature of Zimmerman’s injuries that could help Zimmerman. If we have forensic evidence on Trayvon’s body showing abrasions on his knuckles consistent with punching someone, that would help Zimmerman.
I do think we know that the conflict never would have happened if not for Zimmerman, but that isn’t the same as saying Zimmerman is guilty of manslaughter. If I was Zimmerman and I started following someone to basically monitor their activities, that might piss them off. Probably justifiably (who likes neighborhood watch busy bodies, I certainly don’t), and some people might be prone to getting confrontational over it. If I’m doing something legal (following someone to monitor their activities) I do not think that meets the legal requirement of “provocation”, so if I was Zimmerman and just doing that, and Martin beat me up and I didn’t shoot him and Martin just fled the scene–I think Martin would be charged with assault and convicted. Just because Zimmerman put himself in a stupid situation doesn’t in itself prove provocation, nor does it necessarily remove the credibility of a self-defense claim.
Anyway, again, just speculating. We’re speculating now on what’s available through the news, the news is inherently bad at reporting on the important particulars in criminal cases. That is something I’ve learned through years of reading the news and following criminal cases. Reporters don’t always understand what is important and will emphasize things that are not or fail to report on minor details that aren’t material to them but which might show an import legal element of the case. Just based on the “news clippings” I’d say I’m 60% sure Zimmerman is at wrong and I think it’d be appropriate for him to go away for manslaughter. Which means I feel it more likely than not that is what should happen. But that’s just my feeling based on “news clippings”, and I’ll never tie myself to a real opinion on a criminal case when we don’t have all the facts to go on. It might be fun to discuss but it’s essentially masturbatory speculation.