I think we do understand, however: Trump is the greatest demagogue in US history. He is incredibly charismatic–to a certain segment of the population. He is incredibly talented at stoking the resentment, racial animus, etc., of downscale whites and men in general, including, sadly, a good number of nonwhite men.
That’s why he succeeded. Only Trump could have done it, and only with the permission of a decrepit GOP.
Similarly, only Hitler could have done it, and only in the decrepit political system and milieu of Weimar Germany.
I’m convinced the only reason Trump wanted to be president for a second term was to avoid prosecution. It was either become president or become a convicted felon. I’m sure he’s just as surprised as the rest of us when he managed to become both.
Trump is also the ultimate attention whore. I think that and the goal of evading prison were both sufficient reasons for him to run again. Maybe his resentment at losing in 2020 was also a sufficient reason.
I actually think a GOP implosion would be a good thing. It would absolutely be disruptive, but it would also let that side of the ideological spectrum re-coalesce into something that wouldn’t be what preceded it (hyper right-wing, etc.) .
I would imagine that what we’d see might be the party splintering into several parties, or at least factions, and some coalition of them would eventually be dominant, and chart the course for the party. The “good” news there is that it’s likely that MAGA and the Christian Nationalists wouldn’t be in the driver’s seat and hopefully would be relegated to a more background role.
Yes, Miller and some of Trump’s other advisors have sometimes “said the quiet part out loud.” But I think it’s a serious mistake to classify Miller, and the other P2025 folks who are advising Trump, as “idiots” or “fools” – they are utterly awful excuses for human beings, who actually seem to have a plan, know what the hell they are doing, and are actively trying to destroy the government and the nation as we know it.
You know what they are saying these days: TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out). The fact that Abrego García is back in the US says a hell of a lot, IMO. So far, Trump has not ultimately defied a court order.
Yep.
This is where they risk triggering a revolution or otherwise putting themselves on the losing side of the whole thing. They think pardons or SC-granted “immunity” will save them if worse comes to worst. That’s naive.
No disagreement, but I think that Germany was much worse, and I think many other countries are no worse now. E.g., the Brexit debacle.
He can barely do that now. And no, I do not mean that as hyperbole.
He will have had to develop a very strong power base to have any chance at succeeding at that, and I have already estimated his chances of success in the OP.
Doing so adds significantly to their fool quotient, as it were. Miller in particular comes across as a complete clown; any time he spends in the public eye is time spent undermining his own cause. The fact that he doesn’t understand this is also foolish.
I agree that they are actively trying to destroy the government, but I do not perceive or believe in their collective competence.
A clean implosion would indeed be the healthiest thing, but I don’t think that that is going to happen for one specific reason: there are states and local governments that are more or less totally run by the GOP, and they are not going to lose to Democrats immediately. In the case of some governments, they are not even all that ideological, at least not in their actions; it’s just that local government happens to be branded “Republican.” (The same principle applies less to Democrats, who tend to dominate in urban areas for actual political reasons.)
Meanwhile the national GOP is pure fascist in branding and ideology, and it is they who will suffer the most from the death of Trumpism. I’m not sure how all of that will play out, but the GOP will retain this base of support locally, if only from inertia.
My guess is that the national GOP pols will try to rebrand and retool after Trump, but it will be difficult for them.
Is ICE actively rounding up and detaining thousands of people for being undocumented immigrants? Have some of those people been shipped off to prisons in other countries? Have thousands of government employees been summarily fired, and not rehired, as the administration seeks to fill the government with loyalists? Have entire governmental agencies, and governmental programs which benefit Americans, been weakened or neutered?
Yes, many of these things are being contested in the courts, but the people behind Trump know what the fuck they are doing. Unlike Trump, they are not just throwing shit against the wall to see what sticks – they have an agenda, and a plan.
Also, as mentioned, the United States’ defenses against tyranny remain much stronger than Germany’s were against Hitler. I know many people like to claim today that there is no defense against Trump now and he runs amok power unchecked, but that’s just not true. There are still many checks and balances, even if weakened. Trump and the Republicans are very likely headed for a severe beating in the 2026 midterm elections. Federal judges still override this or that. Etc.
Yes, the things you cited as happening are happening; however…
I think, in this context, the proper use of the phrase “know what the fuck they are doing” requires it to include the meaning, “these actions will redound to the benefit of their long-term strategy.” Just doing bad shit doesn’t mean the bad shit will help them.
As an example, had Hitler tried to pull off the Nuremberg Laws or Kristallnacht in the first couple months of his regime, they could likely have failed entirely and caused him to fall from power. In my perception, the stuff Trump is doing is pissing people off and galvanizing opposition to him without strengthening his position.
It is also giving us Democrats ammo with which to attack any national GOP poll until they are out of office: “When Trump was doing X, you supported him! When Trump did Y, you did nothing but approve it with your silence!” And so on.
They may have plan(s), but I highly doubt they are cohesive, and I maximally doubt that they will be effective.
Trump has already won; he’s going to die rich, in power, and unpunished. If the Republican party or the entire nation spontaneously burns alive ten seconds after his death, that doesn’t matter to him in the slightest. As far as he’s concerned when he dies the universe has lost all purpose and value, and has accomplished the one thing it came into existence for.
It’s the people who come after Trump who will go full Hitler. And I fully expect them to make Hitler look like an amateur in terms of how many people they kill. And I expect them to succeed without much effort or resistance from the US population or government, given how things have worked out so far. They’ll only meet serious resistance when they begin their campaign of genocide and conquest against the rest of humanity; America is prostrate, unwilling to meaningfully stand up to the Right.
…all the way to the grave? The time to do all this assessing was before his first term, and what is going on now brings a whole new meaning to “analyzing something to death”.
Trump’s ultimate goal is simply to have people talking about him. He doesn’t have any strong political desires past that.
If we look at the tariffs, for example, there’s good evidence - all at the same time, and despite these being at cross-purposes - that he wants to 1) drive manufacturing to the US, 2) negotiate deals with other countries that lower trade barriers, and 3) shift the tax burden from the wealthy to the average joe. That bundle of options doesn’t make a lick of sense except for someone who doesn’t really care what the outcome is, just that it be big and dramatic. Otherwise, it’s like saying that you want to drink more water and drink less water at the same time.
In that sort of ambivalent environment, it’s hard to have the will to do something like the Nazis did.
Agreed. State governments here are much stronger than the equivalent in the Weimar Republic. Also, even before Hitler took power, the nazis had already taken over Prussia, the most powerful state in Germany:
Talk about softening up the target!
Also agreed. People will counter each thing in turn: “Oh, but Trump will just cancel the 2026 election!” Mmkay, but mightn’t that trigger a revolution or a military coup? I get it, we’re all traumatized by this mutherfucker, and he has indeed gotten away with so much, but he’s also a master of going up to the line, sticking his toe over it, but then backing off just in time. That doesn’t mean he’s omnipotent.
Basically agree. He could easily die in office, in which case your scenario will be 100% true. Even if he is deposed in the near future, he got to be the center of attention and shit on the world his whole life. That’s all he ever wanted, really.
Assessing his chances of “success” as I did in the OP is more about whether the fascists will succeed in the long term.
There’s not a lot of support for that, and I don’t think the GOP is actually genocidal. I think most GOP pols have gone along with Trump simply to protect their jobs.
