It’s generally seen that the US, ROK and DPRK are just making shows of force to try and deter anyone starting a war, as if anyone outside of a madhouse would wish to do so. But what’s China’s stake in this? The articles mention a defense treaty with DPRK, but no one here seems to think they’d actually enforce it, and neither do I being that any such enforcement in event of a war would mean China vs US, which no one wants.
A poster on another board has said they’re just massing there to be able to shoot all the refugees who would cross the border in event of a war. A little blunt, but is it so far off?
A little off topic, but North Korea has also been spotted in satellite photos mobilizing missiles, probably for a test not war. But assuming they don’t give warning, how will the US missile defense know it’s a test and not an actual strike missile? Any chance it’d be shot down?
I doubt that this would ever happen in the real world, but if I were running the USA I’d invite China to do whatever that they need to in order to get DPRK back into shape, including regime change. Ideally, do that, then settle peacefully with South Korea in an agreement to get American troops out of their backyard.
China may very well enter North Korea in force as an “ally” with the excuse that China wants to prevent conflict. I’m not at all convinced China wants to take on this burden but it is a possibility.
However if this happens, why would China ever leave? And it would probably harden the attitudes of South Korea who would feel more threatened. And why would the USA withdraw from South Korea? China couldn’t force that to happen and equally the US could not force China to leave the peninsula.
I’d guess the current crisis is simply the normal brinkmanship from North Korea which has waxed and waned for 60 years. Much of the noise is for the benefit of the North Korean people to reassure them how strong their nation is.
Worse yet, do you really want your biggest trade partner, the US, on your case every time because of some pissant little country you didn’t want in the first place?
I am sure that another reason is that if fighting does break out, the US and South Koreans are not going to stay south of the DMZ. This being a very different time from the early 1950s, the Chinese would certainly be warned of any incursion. The question is - would they rather “invade” or pacify from the north in order to keep the US and South Koreans away from the border, or would they rather watch?
The optimal solution would be for the Chinese to take out the little shit and then tell the North Korean army to stop fighting or else. I suspect they have a lot of the North Korean military as agents.
Given the situation now, North Korea as a Chinese puppet state would be an improvement.
In this age of ICBMs and nukes launched from secret submarines, countries like China or the US don’t need buffer zones. What could the US possibly do with a base on the Korean Penninsula that they can’t with a base just in South Korea?
North Korean is a belligerent failed state on China’s border, threatening to send tens of millions of refugees streaming into it at any time. If I were China, I’d welcome a South Korean/US takeover so I wouldn’t have to worry about that part of the border again. SK or the US isn’t launching any invasions across the border
I’d like to see a better source than the Washington Times (Moonies, which are Korean)
A Chinese military type recently stated (within last 2 weeks) - on record, for attribution:
Our arrangement with NK is NOT a military one
I don’t remember the exact word, “military” or “mutual defense”, “arrangement” or “relationship”. but the meaning was clear - anybody want a piece of this twit? You can have him - we will not defend NK.
If they are there - are they massed in one point or spread evenly along the entire border? I am hoping they are going for the 100 mile drive to that reactor Kim wants to re-start - I didn’t know their uranium centrifuges were also there - a 2-fer!
You still need boots on the ground. China has war plans for us - we have them for them. Their plans would be a lot more complicated with a direct land route from bases into their mainland.
Plus, they are still communist, and would probably have a problem “losing” a fellow communist state.
I suspect that this is a message to Kim that this time he had better not expect them to support him if the North Koreans start a war - not an invitation for us to get rid of him. That’s helpful in perhaps stabilizing the situation.
I agree that a Chinese controlled regime in North Korea would be more stable and less threatening than the current situation is. It is not as if the US would lose tactical advantage in any future conflict. This, of course, assumes that the new regime would stand down from the batteries on the edge of the DMZ and sign a peace treaty. Otherwise, it could lead us to a war that the US and the PRC do not wish to wage.
North Korea is not “communist”…started out that way, but since 1992, they have disavowed Communism and removed reference to it in it’s constitution. They are basically a Family Dictatorship, but describe themselves as Socialist with the main political philosophy being “Juche” (Self Reliance)
China itself is also not strictly communist as elections at the local level are allowed. It’s progressing to a Socialist Democratic country,…in fact it may fully become that by 2050 if not sooner…
As many have said already, North Korea is more of a thorn in the side of China than anything else. They should honestly hope for a US/SK takeover AND reunification. because the U.S. will foot the bill for rebuilding (as always) and then after the newly unified country is rebuilt and improved, they will have a HUGE trading partner right next door…plus no more food handouts or rescue aid needed. it’s a win win situation for the world.
Christ, if true it’s because China doesn’t want a mass influx of Korean refugees. The idea that the China of today would go to war to support North Korea is cold war hangover implausibility of the highest order.
Heck, China is currently actively–and I mean very actively–doing its best to prevent any kind of exodus whatsoever from North Korea. The Chinese authorities repatriate North Koreans they discover in China without the proper documentation. An interesting aside to that is those North Koreans who manage to make it to Mongolia (the country, not the Chinese province) are also repatriated by the Mongolian authorities–to South Korea.