Which is the opposite of “a better source than the Washington Times.”
Well . . . To the PRC, NK is like the crazy aunt who lives in the basement. Embarrassing, inconvenient, troublesome, sometimes expensive, but whaddaya gonna do, family is family.
Or, literally translated, “Does Not Play Well With Others.”
Maybe China should consider doing the same. That could lead somewhere.
I don’t think anyone here considers this a possibility. The question is whether China would replace the government or let us do that. No matter how crazy the NKs are, they are still officially allies, and I doubt the Chinese would be too pleased with letting the South Koreans take over. I think they have plenty of money to do the job.
I wonder how well they’d manage with millions of frightened refugees? But I agree that the official reason for the troops is the refugee problem - but they helps in other ways also.
I think massive private ownership of industry is more important - but nonetheless, it is still ruled by the Party and it will be a while before they officially turn their backs on Mao.
Hell, with everything else China is exporting these days, how much do you suppose the SK Reunification Ministry would pay per head for fresh-out-of-the-country NK’ers?
I heard one reference to troops, tanks, and armored personnel carries seen near the Apnok river - which is closest to NK on the west coast - just above the reactor complex in play.
They also are refusing to send a (requested) deputy-minister-level envoy to NK - after NK refused to accept such an envoy the last 2 or 3 times one was proposed. The Chinese response was: you want an envoy? You send an envoy,
Haven’t seen anything in Chinese site (Global Times) about the troop movements. Anybody know of a PLA site?
Actually, an Op-Ed in (Chinese) Global Times calls out for Sino-NK MILITARY assistance, citing a 1961 mutual friendship treaty.
Mao used an idiomatic expression to refer to NK - it meant “the sensation of one’s teeth when one’s lips are removed” (it’s a buffer) - for the General to make his statement that there was no part of the relationship which called for China to defend NK would appear to directly distance them from Mao’s thinking. No more grand centrally-planned political and economic upheavals - Great Leap Forward, Cultural Revolution.
Decades (1980’s, I believe) ago, one US pundit, when asked about the various economic plans they were trying, stated (this was a time of the "Iron Rice Bowl, and massive starvation): “They’re going to keep on trying until they find something that works. Then they’ll call that Communism”
We don’t know how many times the DPRK economic mess has been bounced
between the Central Commitee, the Standing Committee, and the PLA.
Moving troops to the DPRK border is a winner in at least 3 ways:
(1) It simplifies a régime change if that becomes a necessity.
(2) It puts a break on illegal immigration.
(3) It keeps the west and South Korea away from North Korea.
I believe the major powers still find buffer states desirable. Buffer states
serve as barometers, early warning stations, and wake-up call for things to
come. For example the “Pearl Harbor” of Japan happens to be the Senkaku
Islands. A China PLA move against the Senkakus would have the same effect as the Imperial Japanese Navy at Pearl Harbor…
Drivel.
[ol][li]There’s not going to be any “regime change” in North Korea instituted by China. For one thing, who would the PLA install? There’s exactly 0% chance that the North Korean population would tolerate a Chinese governor.[/li][li]Yeah, right. :rolleyes: That’s been working so well that there are quite a few undocumented North Koreans in China now. And China has had a decent military presence on the border for a while now. Last night’s Chinese news also showed new guard posts on the DPRK side of the river, too.[/li][li]It’s a wee bit hard for South Korea to keep away from North Korea, what with them sharing a border. Maybe you meant it keeps the UN and ROK forces away from China. Well, China already has a few non-communist countries, democracies even, on their border. The Chinese government doesn’t seem too scandalized by that fact. There’s also the simple fact that nobody’s working on taking over North Korea by force.[/ol][/li]
As to your belief. Well, buffer states are kind of passé, are they not? Nobody’s trying to take over the PRC by force either. The Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands are not the Pearl Harbor of Japan. They happen to be small islands in dispute between Japan and China. Vessels from all three governments involved (ROC, PRC, and Japan) have entered the Senkaku/Diaoyu waters more than a few times. Last year, there was an incident involving both ROCCG and JCG vessels.
“The same effect as the Imperial Japanese Navy at Pearl Harbor” is just drivel. You simply don’t know what you’re talking about. The United States had quite a number of Navy ships stationed at Pearl Harbor. That wasn’t some minor territorial dispute. That was an intentional act of war.
Any more ‘mainstream’ reporting on this troop movement?
China is not going to pull a deus ex machina and solve this problem. A calm, China-sponsored regime change is a fantasy. China doesn’t want anyone thinking about changing their regime, and they aren’t going to be cast as an aggressor.
They aren’t interested.
It would only happen as a last resort. And there would be no “Chinese governor” - only a North Korean puppet, just like the Russians did in Eastern Europe.
The interesting question is how well have the Chinese infiltrated the North Korean military? I’m sure it is riddled with spied reporting to the Chinese, but do the Chinese control enough senior military people to pull off a coup if needed? And what percent of the military is fanatically pro-regime? They would have to be to fight a coup with a massive Chinese troop presence on the border.
China is waiting for a war between North Korea and . . . well, anyone, South Korea, the U.S., a coalition, anyone. And of course North Korea would be decimated. But before the South can claim the North as their own, China will swoop in and annex it . . . without incurring any loss in machinery or lives.
So, in your scenario there will be no South Korean or US troops in the North? Or will they just not notice the Chinese arriving? Or will they just leave politely?
And while this happens we’ll just keep on importing cheap underwear for WalMart?
No matter what happens we’ll just keep on importing cheap underwear for WalMart.
My impression has been that there has been, and continues to be, a real affection for North Korea in China. I think NK reminds them of what they were not too many years ago with their own crazy leader of a cult of personality.
But affection or no affection, business is business, and China today is all about business. Trade with South Korea and Japan is important. Posturing and muscle flexing is all well and good, but war would not be good for business.
Hear, hear. As I’ve said in other threads on Korea, and I’ll say again here, the degree of influence, much less control that China has over North Korea is frequently greatly overblown.
I don’t mean to pick on you, as I’ve read others say the same thing, but this is exactly what I mean. On what do you base this certainty that the North Korean military is riddled with Chinese spies, much less that China controls senior military personnel in the North Korean military? The DPRK is an extremely paranoid country, which makes spying rather difficult, much less massively infiltrating the ranks of the military with spies. The other question is why China would possibly want to massively infiltrate the North Korean military with spies in the first place, something it would be sure to be caught doing.
There are a number of Kims running around - Jong Il’s older brother (disgraced by being caught with a forged passport in Japan, trying to get in Disneyland Japan (you really can’t make this stuff up). There is a cousin in school in Switzerland who is actually mingling with SK and USA students (Jong Il kept to himself, went home for holidays, and off-campus socializing was with the NK ambassador).
A coup could, conceivably denounce Jong Il as an imposter (he reportedly had plastic surgery to look more like his (deified) grandfather - could be used against him) and installing either of those as the “true” heir. The military (and everyone else close enough to the family to know) would go along with it - as long as their own positions are not threatened.
A quick pronouncement, removal of artillery, destroying a launch pad, and Poof! away go the sanctions, and a few more people upgrade their diets.
Jong Il was installed Dec 2011 - he is still consolidating his power - and pissing off the military - first they lost control of the hard-money generating businesses and now they have lost seats on the ruling Council just adjourned - Kim has again replaced the military with party and commercial types. and “reformers” at that. Add in the executions of 3 top generals, and you gotta suspect there’s more than a little resentment.