“Monty” and “Even Sven” are long on negativity and short on ideas for China
options. I chuckle that Sven has said “China is not interested [in régime change].”
Does he have a seat next to Xi Jinping ?
I agree with your inference that China has its contacts within the DPRK military.
I don’t predict an army of occupation or a “puppet” régime unless and until a DPRK
nuclear warhead detonates over China, Russia, South Korea or Japan.
Of course the North Koreans can claim that such an event is “accidental” and the
result of faulty electronics. If China does not react to that, then world opinion
would support foreign intervention in North Korea.
No doubt. But, what does that actually mean in Chinese politics?
Good grief. What is it with April this year? We’re having a veritable bounty of people who don’t know what they’re talking about.
Every single day here in China, the news talks about how the new regime in China (if you know the new guy’s name, you really should know that he’s the new guy here) isn’t interested at all in change in North Korea. What the PRC government is interested in, and has evidenced time and time again, is stability on the Korean peninsula. The PRC government continues with its tried-and-true (well, to them) methods of diplomacy and return of fugitive refugees, both tactics intended to not make the current regime in North Korea pissed off at their last real friend in the world.
Why on Earth would the PRC not have contacts with the KPA? The two governments aren’t exactly unacquainted with each other. If you’re referring to spies in the KPA, well, that’s an interesting idea. The language in North Korea is not the same as that used in China’s Korean provinces, the culture is decidedly different, and getting into the KPA is a bit more complicated than saying, “Hey, take me!” The DPRK screens folks using that most un-Communist method of determining status and if you’re status isn’t up to snuff, neither are you.
Yeah. An army of occupation in a territory whose people don’t want any foreign government at all. Just look at how well the PRC government is doing in Tibet. Oh, let’s not forget how pissed off Koreans, of either Northern or Souther persuasion, still are at Japan for that country’s little endeavor on the Peninsula early last century.
The rest of the world doesn’t seem to support the dude (well, it’s likely his aunt and her hubby) in power now. Notice how well that’s doing on getting change on the upper side of 38?
I swear, April, young lass, you need to be a tad more selective.
It also may be that they don’t have a specific plan, but with tensions ratcheting up on the peninsula they think that this area is the most likely place for China to need a military presence in the near future. So it’s a good idea to have some troops there just in case. Better to have troops on hand and not need them than to need them and not have them.
It’s hard to parse what is even really going on with Chinese troops. Some live ammunition drills near the border but overall no major military posturing.
Stability is a good business environment. BG, I think it means that so long as stability is not too threatened the Chinese government will not pressure NK too much. But business trumps good feelings and there is pressure that China can bring to bear.
I had to give up my seat politburo because the meetings interfere with my skee-ball league, so now I have to make my predictions the old fashioned way- by analyzing past behavior and current conditions.
China’s “non-Chinese” provinces are an unending headache for them, and are an enormous distraction from their main objective of economic development. Furthermore, China’s goodwill in Africa and elsewhere relies heavily on their reputation as being non-interventionist. Their whole selling point is that unlike the US, they aren’t going to be muttering about “regime change” or anything like that- they just want to do business. Getting too involved in North Korea would lose a lot of hard-won goodwill elsewhere. It would also fire up the Chinese nationalists, which is always a pain in the butt for the Party. Taking an active role in North Korea is just an invitation to a lot of unneeded problems.
China will need to show they can protect their borders, Other than that, they’d probably prefer to step back. If someone has to be an aggressor, they’d rather it be us, so that we end up with the responsibility and all the flack.
It’s the malnourished, growth-stunted, mentally-deficient chicks, man . . . there’s just something about them . . .
Sven, thanks for these insightful remarks. I think you are a reliable source.
But don’t forget that someone at the the top sent an aircraft carrier to the
Senkakus, and that those rocks serve Nippon in the “buffer state” role which
“Monty” finds so obsolete and unnecessary.
Care to translate that into English?
So, people you like are “insightful” and “reliable” and people you don’t like are not. Gotcha.
Look, both Monty and even sven have made essentially the same point - China is uninterested in 19th century style imperial ventures, thought they did make the same point in different ways.
But you’re concluding one is insightful and the other isn’t?
Be consistent, Sideshow Bob!
Or what he said.