Firstly, thank you for that cogent analysis (and also to @Stranger_On_A_Train). But AFAIK there’s no definitive evidence that they actually have nukes right now. They certainly want to have nukes, and do have an advanced uranium enrichment program, but they’re apparently not there yet.
Whether nuclear weapons are launched in praise of Allah or in praise of Yahweh, the results are equally frightening and catastrophic. What a shit-show that whole region is! And it could easily escalate well beyond the region.
Well, we won’t know until they use them, either in test or warfare. But frankly they have the technical capability to build relatively sophisticated device small enough to fit in a reentry vehicle or cruise missile, although of unknown reliability, and since the essential abandonment of the ‘nuclear deal’, no reason to not move forward with all due haste.
Except that an attack on Iran would free up resources tied up in Ukraine. Remember, Iran is supplying munitions to Russia in this war. A few targeted strikes on Iranian munitions factories or storehouses could hurt Russia badly, and this attack by Iran gives us the fig leaf to do that without escalating the Russian situation.
Chronos, What_Exit, a congent point, but it pre-supposes that (1) those factories and storehouses are known to us (probable but not conclusive, IMHO), (2) that they are attackable (not located in densely civilian populated areas for example), (3) that we have the capability to hit them without loss and with success (any other result will be seen as weakness, both abroad and more importantly, by politicians currently out of power) and (4) That any response by the Iranians has been reviewed and countermeasures are in place.
No argument that it would be a tempting target and would discomfort both Iran and Russia, but there is a lot we don’t know about the stakes.
I do wish you are right, but I’m not ready as you to see Iran’s leaders that incompetent in what has been called “The Great Game”. We shall see.
Iran is retaliating because Israel attacked bombed their embassy and killed one of their generals. This was guaranteed to happen as soon as they did that.
Iran has publicly stated they have no intention of any other attacks. So there is no reason whatsoever to jump to conclusions that Iran is trying to destroy Israel. You can’t think about countries as cartoon villains.
We can debate if Israel was justified in their initial attack. But you can’t ignore that Israel deliberately attacked Iran’s embassy. And it was entirely expected that Iran would attack back.
If you don’t like people jumping to the conclusion that Israel wanted to destroy Palestine, then you can’t jump to the same conclusion with Iran.
No sovereign nation would tolerate a hostile power sending high ranking generals to command and support terrorist groups in neighboring failed states in order to coordinate attacks against said sovereign nation, either.
If Iran didn’t want their high ranking military officers killed, they shouldn’t have sent those officers into Syria to coordinate attacks on Israel.
Let’s not pretend these guys were on a diplomatic mission to Syria.
Hey, you can’t just assume that an Islamic theocracy that describes Israel as Satanic and evil sent its generals into Syria because of ill intent! It was probably just a chili cookoff.
Did I say that? No. I simply pointed out that Israel attacked Iran first, and thus it was inevitable that Iran would attack back. This was entirely expected. It was predicted when Israel made the attack.
So it doesn’t make sense to assume that this one action means Iran is now currently on their plan to destroy Israel.
Israel is also now going to attack back. Their sovereign nation was attacked by another nation. Some attacks actually came from Iranian soil, so they can’t use their proxies as a scapegoat. I’m not going to act like there is any other reason behind that attack when it occurs.
Even if we assume that Iran wants to get rid of Israel, Israel is a nuclear power. And Israel is allied with other nuclear powers. This is not Iran telling the world they are about to destroy Israel. The country is not suicidal.
This is a response to Israel’s actions against Iran, whether you think those actions were justified or not.
Honest question: does the Vienna Convention (which protects embassies) apply when the states involved don’t have diplomatic relations, or, when, in fact, one of them does not recognize the other?
Not just effectively - literally. Iran has launched thousands of missiles into Israel from Lebanon and Syria since October.
And I simply pointed out that sending some generals to go and coordinate assaults on my enemy with the pet terrorist group I’ve been growing and nurturing for decades is an attack, so no, Israel did not attack Iran first. Not unless we pretend Iran sends military officials to failed states on diplomatic missions.
If a country is acting out of rational self-interest, they aren’t likely to do anything suicidally stupid with nuclear weapons. If a country is run by militant religious extremists who think they are doing the will of their god and venerate martyrs, don’t be so sure.
How tight is Iran’s control over their domestic media? Could they be counting on lying to their own people that the attack was successful, for propaganda purposes?
But then again, if they could get away with that lie, why launch the attack at all? Just lie about launching the attack, too.
Iran attacking Israel makes sense. They doing it in a way that they had to have known would be totally ineffective, however, does not, no matter how you turn it.
I’m fairly certain that it was not done solely for an internal audience; I believe that they also wanted to demonstrate strength (and a willingness to retaliate) to other countries, even if it was calculated to not be particularly effective.