I think AZ and NC might be more likely than FL and OH.
From polls I’ve seen Ohio has a good chance and Arizona is in play. What makes you think North Carolina, I haven’t seen anything yet to support that?
Perhaps, NC is getting to be a little more purple as is AZ. The AZ Senate race may boost some Democratic turnout there. If those two states flip, then the rout is on.
The margin in NC was much smaller than OH in '16. Not FL, though – I was misremembering that.
Fair enough, but Ohio was a reaction to Clinton, Ohio likes Biden.They also voted Obama twice.
IIRC, NC’s polling for things like approval are also considerably better for the Democrats, lately, than OH. But no link handy – this is from memory, so I could be wrong.
What makes me nervous about Ohio is they voted for a Republican governor and they have a history of election day issues like inequitable distribution of voting machines. A few cycles ago they refused to accept registration applications that were on the wrong weight of paper. They are certainly not known for fair play.
She is a pro-choice Republican. Remember when we used to have those?
That is a really dumb comparison.
None of these people have been nominated to the Supreme Court.
Do you remember when Obama nominated a TV personality as Surgeon General?
Do you remember when Kal Penn worked in the white house as the Associate Director of the White House Office of Public Engagement?
These sort of appointments to position within the white house or positions that involve dealing with the press are not nearly the same thing as SCOTUS appointments.
BTW what federal appointment did Michael Cohen have?
What was wrong with Appointing Michael Flynn? He seemed qualified at the time.
Yes and how is that relevant to your assertion that Trump was going to nominate Fox News talking heads to the Supreme court?
Trump is taking advice from the heritage foundation (or some other conservative outfit) and conservatives like that.
He might nominate Barack Obama. Shit. Anything is possible in theory. But the fact remains that he never tried to nominate Napolitano. Conservatives have reason to be satisfied with his SCOTUS nominations.
I agree Trump is a trainwreck but he is a trainwreck that is nominating solid conservative justices, pushing a conservative-ish agenda (see tax cuts for the rich and deregulation of industries that have repeatedly proven they need lots and lots of regulation) and most importantly HE IS ELECTABLE (or at least he seemed so until very recently.
Can you please explain your post 68 where you directly respond to my statement that
"Yes, I know several former never Trumpers who have become Trump supporters because:
Tax Cuts
SCOTUS nominations"
This entire subthread between you and me is about Never-Trumpers!!! This entire subthread is in response to my contention that there is in fact a group of voters that didn’t vote for Trump in the last election that will vote for him this time around.
This conversation is NOT about whether or not Trump is a trainwreck. I think we both agree on that.
I’ve seen quite a few comments on social media of “I voted for Obama and/or Clinton but now I’m voting Trump in 2020”. Now, I suspect some of them are Trump/Republican voters who are deliberately trying to put up a guise of “blue switchovers” to encourage blue voters to jump ship too, but others may be genuine.
I think AZ is at Biden+10 right now.
I suspect NC is is similarly situated
I would like to see polling in Georgia. I think Georgia might be in play and if Biden picks someone like Stacey Abrams. Just spitballing.
So, I hire Britney Spears to be my lawyer:
“I’ve never really wanted to go to Japan. Simply because I don’t like eating fish. And I know that’s very popular out there in Africa.” -Britney Spears
I ask her to take charge of paying off people who I have criminally, sexually assaulted and give her an unofficial role in my business, trying to organize my largest, multi-million dollar contracts with criminal dictators. You know, just a trivial position of no particular importance to my personal well-being, legal, nor financial position in the world.
Later, through unknown processes, I produce a list of people who I would want to see on the Supreme Court. They overall seem like reasonable, sane people.
Is this list the product of my mind, or the product of the minds of people who are wiser than me and who hold absolute veto over my choices?
is my link not going to the latest page? I see 47% and 44% approval
Trumps Job approval fell a few points as of today’s large batch of polls.
President Trump Job Approval CNN Approve 44, Disapprove 53 **Disapprove **+9
CNBC Approve 46, Disapprove 43 **Approve **+3
Monmouth Approve 46, Disapprove 49 **Disapprove **+3
Politico/Morning Consult Approve 44, Disapprove 54 **Disapprove **+10
Rasmussen Reports Approve 47, Disapprove 52 **Disapprove **+5
Economist/YouGov Approve 45, Disapprove 53 **Disapprove** +8
General Election: Trump vs. Biden > Economist/YouGov > Biden 48, Trump 42 = Biden +6
I would guess that Fiveyearlurker was assuming that if poll X goes down by Y, then FiveThirtyEight would also go down by Y.
Obviously, that’s not how it works.
And now the descent has started.
The wackeldackel is better!
Down a point in just a couple of days. What could possibly cause it to go up again? A BOOMING economy, which he tweeted would happen when things are opened up again first of May? Which isn’t happening all over the country anyway.
It doesn’t have to actually happen. Trump just says it’s happening, and they believe it. Trump’s whole career and presidency have been entirely based on his bullshit claims and fabrications, and on his bullshit PR image. He’s always found enough suckers to fall for it.
Obviously, my post was on the 6th. When it was at 44%. It subsequently rose to 47% when you looked at it on the 7th. As you can see from the link.
And it was never at 38%, as you suggested it should be, nor should it be since that’s not how it works.