Why is this election so close?

Politics & Elections
1

And I don’t think it’s because 46% of Americans are racist. Let’s look at what’s going on here.

Obama is very charismatic. Romney has the gravitas of wet newspaper.

Vice-President selections don’t seem to be a factor like they were in 2008 which helps Obama because Biden is the Democrat version of SNL’s Drunk Uncle.

Obama gets a pass on almost anything. Racist pastor, undelivered promises (reasonable or not), no real plan for the future (similar to the 2008 campaign), a much-maligned UHC law. He is the Teflon President. Meanwhile with Romney he makes a joke about the 47% (and I think he’s joking about Democrats) and somehow he’s insulted all of America. Reid makes an unfounded, unproven accusation about Romney’s taxes and Romney is tried and convicted by the public. What happened to innocent until proven guilty.

Obama is not a brilliant campaigner. His entire campaign is “I’m not the other guy.” Thing is, in this day and age when we vote for the lesser of 2 evils, that’s a great strategy when running against Bush III/Palin. So what does Romney do, take a situation and tries to figure out the worst way to handle/spin it. I mean I’m watching the debate and I can’t believe this guy was a Governor/Corporate leader. Cookie Monster came across as more sincere when he explained cookies are a “sometimes snack” and Romney never looks totally prepared.

Personal note: I’m a lifelong Pub and in addition cannot stand Obama as you all know so I’m sure you are all convinced that I’m going to vote Romney/Ryan. Thing is, I’m still undecided. I want to go third party (not Roseanne/Sheehan) but in this election not voting for Romney is a vote for Obama.

So how is it with all of the advantages Obama has and the negatives Romney has, that this election may come down to my vote as a Coloradan undecided?

2

I agree. I don’t see why Romney is polling so high.

3

I believe it is because approximately half of the population of the US will accept anything they are told. Literally anything.

The Republicans were smart to disregard the fact-checkers. Fact-checkers are no threat to people who have no use for facts in the first place.

4

Essentially, I think that in the red states Romney is winning by a HUGE margin relative to Obama’s margin in blue states. So, the popular votes are going to be very very close with Romney appearing to be winning. The Romney campaign has Paul Ryan campaign in DEEP RED states: Georgia, Alabama, Texas. Why would Romney waste time and money putting his running mate in these places where he needn’t spend anything? One possibility is that he is embarrassed by Ryan’s right wing nut status with regard to the social safety net and women’s issues. But, I think they actively campaigning in states they have locked up to push the national levels polls to support a narrative that the race is very very close and they are winning that close race.

Such a narrative would support numerous goals. Perhaps it would make swing state voters see Romney as an inevitable winner, someone with a bandwagon worth joining. It may be that some of the swing state polls are being influenced by this perception that at a national level things are super tight or Romney is winning.

It might also produce, at the very least, a split between the popular and electoral vote results and leave Obama somewhat hampered in his second term, clearly without a mandate.

AND then again, it might serve as excellent cover for some kind of fraud operation (involving, for instance, vote flipping in large precincts). If the narrative of a very close election remains at the forefront, those who have not been following the electoral college side of things will NOT be surprised or suspicious of a Romney victory: “Why are you surprised? He’s been winning or it’s been too close to call all along?”

5

That’s a whole lotta whining, right there…

Although I do agree with your conclusion…it’s puzzling that half the country is insane enough to actually put Romney neck and neck with Obama…

6

Oh, HELL no. Turnabout is fair play. I will not hesitate to call an Obama victory without the popular vote a mandate at every opportunity possible.

7

I’ll agree with this.

I agree that VP picks don’t matter much.

Totally disagree with this- he gets tons and tons of criticism.

Old news- it didn’t matter in 08, it’s certainly not going to matter now (and I don’t think he’s racist- more a far lefty, but in line with liberation theology).

He’s got a pretty strong recordon his own promises (to summarize, 17% broken, 9% stalled, the rest kept, in the works, or partially kept in a compromise).

His plan is pretty clear to me- higher taxes on the rich, more investment on infrastructure, education, and R&D, slow the growth of military spending, streamline and make more efficient health care spending. I understand the pub talking point that he has no plan, but I like his plan better than Romney’s.

Most of its individual requirements are quite popular, and overall it’s grown in popularity from the nadir about a year ago.

All successful presidents are.

A joke? No one laughed, and it seemed pretty clear he was making an ideological point to that audience. I think it’s one of the most honest and from-the-heart things he’s said all campaign.

Thems the breaks in politics. I agree the Reid accusation is pretty silly. I don’t think it’s had that much affect.

Not brilliant, but quite good IMO. I think his campaign team is top notch, especially their ground game (get out the vote).

Well I think Obama is leading in the electoral college, ahead by a small but stable amount based on strength in OH, WI, and NV. He’s not doing better because the economy has not improved very quickly (thought it’s picking up a bit as of late), and because he sucked in the first debate.

But I still think Obama’s very likely to win- he’s got a significant and steady enough lead in enough states to get him to 270 electoral votes.

8

This one is my bet. They want to do everything they can to cripple the second term in advance, and the “Didn’t win the popular vote” mantra makes a great smokescreen.

9

You, Saint Cad, are seriously partisan and are incapable of doing a rational analysis. Just my humble opinion.

10

Also (slightly OT), especially if by some crazy alignment of the stars the House flips, look for a lame duck impeachment proceeding. Which, with any luck at all, will completely discredit the Republican party, as the party that impeached TWO presidents on completely political grounds.

11

Where do you live? I live in a red state near the Ohio border, and around here, Obama isn’t getting a free pass for anything.

12

I urge you to consider voting for Romney. I lived in MA when he was governor. He did the best job in that role as was possible. He is much more conservative and even libertarian leaning than he is given credit for. He regularly filled in as guest host on a local radio station when he was governor and always impressed me with his wide range of knowledge on the issues and his straightforward talk.

Sure, he governed a bit more from the left when he was running a state with five times as many Democrats as Republicans in it. Also true, he had to run to the right to win the nomination and then moved to the center to try and win the general. Everyone does this, at least if they want to win.

Don’t let the flip flopping accusations sway you. He would make a great president. Better than his opponents in the primary and certainly better than Obama, who in addition to being way to the left of the American mainstream has shown he is hopelessly over his head in the role.

13

:dubious:

Seriously? Way to the left? THE MAN IS AN EISENHOWER-ERA REPUBLICAN! My god, how far to the RIGHT do you have to be to actually believe that Obama is a leftist?!

14

What is vote flipping?

15

The short answer is that the nation is divided roughly in half. It’s more of an urban/rural split than a regional one, in my opinion. Those states with little if any urban population like the Dakotas are automatic reds. Those states where cities dominate like NY and California are automatic blues. So there about 10 states where the urban/rural split is such that the outcome is in doubt.

By all rights, it should not be close. The Republicans held their nose and nominated a guy even they don’t like. Romney’s campaign is like a stack of cards built upon a foundation of lies- like the apology tour, Obama’s Medicare cuts, etc. What they stand for that isn’t a lie are things that Americans don’t agree with: you can never raise taxes on anybody, women should be forced to carry children of rapists, no need to take a stand on equal pay for women, etc. No way should this election be in doubt. If Obama was white, election day would be a yawner.

16

I freely admit that i would give a pass to Obama on almost anything. It has nothing to do with Obama either, the problem is the Republican party as it currently is should under no circumstance be allowed to be in power again. A lot of people feel this way, mediocre easily trumps rabidly insane any day of the week.

17

To the last few posters.
I am in Colorado (swing state yay!). My mailbox is overflowing everyday this week with election mailings.

My observation is that Obama gets a pass from the independents/undecideds. Obviously he does not get a pass on anything from the Rabid Right and on the Liberal Left, Obama could confess to killing the Lindburgh baby and they would claim the baby deserved it.

I am seriously partisan. I’ve hated Obama as a candidate since day 1* because his whole campaign was yelling out “Change!” like the homeless people near my grocery store and saying, “I’m not George W. Bush.” I’m also tired of having him blow sunshine up my ass about the economy. I’m not saying McCain or anybody else could have done better, but stop fucking lying to me for 3 1/2 years telling me how great is economy is. Be honest for a change. He-he-he I said “change”.

  • And I was called racist to my face many times in 2008 by Obama supporters because apparently it’s impossible to disagree with his platform and it must be about his skin color.

I’m not interested in you telling me how I’m wrong (hey andy - don’t care) because y’all are as partisan as I am. Plus, that’s not the point of this thread. The point is if I hate Obama this much (rational, irrational - don’t care) then their must be something SERIOUSLY wrong with Romney if I haven’t already voted for him via absentee. So if someone like me is not convinced to vote for him then how is it so close not only for the popular vote but also that we are discussing THAT ROMNEY MAY WIN depending on how certain swing states go?

18

Because about 47% of the electorate will vote for Obama regardless of the facts.

19

Fair enough. Generally, on a message board, when you make claims, you should be prepared that your claims might be refuted. If you don’t want to engage, then that’s fine. I come to this board to engage- especially with people who disagree with me.

20

I know. It makes my head hurt when I hear this. It really does. However, I’m not exactly sure I’d say he’s an Eisenhower-era Republican. Sometimes, it does feel to me that he’s to the right of Ike and Nixon, but overall, I’m not so sure.

As I posted in the political compass thread, this is as good a chart I’ve seen as any regarding the relative liberal or conservative nature of presidents since Truman. According to that measure (and take it with a grain of salt if you wish), there has been a general rightward shift in both Republican and Democratic positions, and Obama is the least liberal of the Democratic presidents since Truman, but more liberal than the least conservative Republican president. That sounds fairly plausible and correct to me, although I would have thought some Republican and Democratic presidents would have been closer to the center (like Ike and Clinton, although Ike does rank as the least conservative Republican there.)