Why such success for McCain?

Great Debates
1

So the way it appears to me (correct me if I’m wrong) is that the country is nearly split 50-50 of people who would label themselves either Democrat or Republican.

On the democrat side we have Obama and Clinton duking it out for the nomination.

And on the Republican side we have… McCain pretty much running away with the thing.

My question would be, with all the bad mouthing of McCain the far right is spewing i.e. Limbaugh, Coulter, etc. where are the McCain support/votes coming from?
It’s not Democrats voting for him, and the far right basically loathes him, where does he garner his support?
Are there just that many moderate Republicans out there saying “Well, yeah I’m a republican, but I’m not an extremist like Limbaugh and Coulter likes to think we are.”

2

He does well among moderates, and his reputation and background are apparently enough to overcome other people’s questions. Religious conservative AND fiscal conservatives both have issues with him, but they didn’t have a preference to rally around. Romney didn’t fit the religious part of the bill and they economic conservatives don’t like Huckabee’s ideas. For those who are more willing to compromise, he must seem like the best choice.

3

No. It used to be ~33-33-33 Pub/Dem/Indie. I think the Dems have an advantage these days, but there are still lots of non-aligned Independents out there.

4

I think even Republicans are tired of what they hear from a lot of “conservative pundits”. Of course I can’t back this up, but I’d say Republicans want to be proud to be a Republican and yet want a nonneocon as their leader. McCain is often called a liberal in disguise and I think they like that.

Again, no back up. Sorry.

5

From PEW:
Summary of Findings: Trends in Political Values and Core Attitudes: 1987-2007

That leaves 15% independents, but I’m sure it’s easy to quibble over the placement of ‘leaners’.

6

The fact that he wouldn’t start a trail of tears type march back to Mexico for all illegals has got to be a plus for many.

7

That’s actually a minus for a good chunk of the primary voters, I think.

8

Because the competition was pathetic. Romney was blessed with Kerrys charisma and boring speech ability. He related to practically nobody. Rudy was a joke. Huckleberry is a one trick pony on a mission from god.

9

Indeed, it was sort of amusing to watch the Republicans start a year ago with McCain as the front runner, then basically cycle through each of the other candidates before finally deciding they were right in the first place and nominating (well, soon will nominate, anyways) McCain.

On the other hand, I’d say it worked, IMHO, he is the best and most electable of the Republican field, which is what a successful nominating process should select. So I guess I shouldn’t make fun.

10

Did somebody say, “Bob Dole?”

This campaign has been a lot like 1996. Pat Buchanan on the far right. Phil Gramm not catching on. Lamar Alexander being boring. The senior statesman who everyone has seen on the Sunday talk shows wins out.

11

And Fred was waiting for the director to yell “Action” - or for a retake.

12

No competition.

13

The campaing on the Republican side showed the fractures between the three main components of the Republican base: Economic conservatives (voted for Romney), Foreign policy hawks (voted McCain), and evangelicals (voted Huckabee). Bush/Rove were masters at papering over the competing goals of these groups, but as the current administration has slipped into abysmal failure, these divergent groups are less likely to go with the flow.

The evangelical and fiscal groups were always the most at-odds, so it’s no surprise the competition was fiercest between Huckabee and Romney. And there’s an old horseracing adage that applies: When the money is split between the favorites, bet on the longshot. Granted, McCain wasn’t that big a longshot, but with 2/3 of the base fighting each other, McCain came on in the later primaries where independent support helped him win (independents don’t like zealotry–that’s why they’re independent–so they weren’t as disposed to the other two).

McCain won by default, and now that the nomination looks inevitable, the rest of the party is (grudgingly) falling in line behind him. The general election is going to crush him, as he’s forced by the Democratic nominee to defend the goals of zealots he doesn’t really like.

14

Damn it people, stop counting your chickens before they hatch. Obama has not won the Democratic nomination yet and McCain can beat Hillary. The polls say so and the dislike for Hillary says so. I know some people love her, but more people dislike her.

I honestly saw no way Bush could be a two term President. The democrats chose a candidate that made this happen. Anything can happen and McCain shows no inclination to lock step with Bush/Cheney on many policies. He is honest about being the most hawkish candidate, but how much is that hurting him? What other policies of Bush is he actively supporting.

Jim (Supporting and encouraging people to vote for Obama)

15

Or, it could be that even Republicans can figure out that McCain is the only candidate that can win.

Years of pointless war, and the genuine possibility of entering the final months of the election with a real recession in progress makes it hard to beat those old neocon loyalty drums.

Tris

16

I know a lot of moderate, reasonable Republicans. They are all behind McCain. The more conservative voters split their support in the early primaries among Huckabee, Romney, and Thompson, leaving McCain with a solid plurality.

Also, some Republicans know McCain has the best chance of winning in the general, and are supporting him for that reason alone.

17

I’d also add that it only looks like McCain is running away with it because of the winner-take-all nature of most Republican primaries. If the delegates were allocated proportionally his lead would not be nearly as impressive (and Romney would likely still be in the race).

As for his support, it is actually pretty broad. Basically Republicans that don’t get their news from Rush and don’t identify as strongly with the evangelical movement find him the least objectionable candidate. Or, what spoke- said: moderate, reasonable Republicans (like my father).

18

As an “independent” (whatever that means), at first, I was interested in the Ron Paul campaign. After watching a few debates, it occurred to me that Paul is batshit crazy in many ways. And I was quite impressed by McCain, for the first time.

I am also a semi-regular listener to the Rush/Hannity shows (they’re on WLS, which is my default for talk radio). Since the “McCain Issue” has been brought up, I find that I cannot listen to them for more than a few minutes without yelling and stabbing my radio button as fast as I can. Honestly, I can only figure out a few of the reasons why they hate him. A recent thread around here addressed it, but didn’t really specify anything…

But to me, Rush/Hannity sound like fools parroting some kind of weird, underground Republican…thing, which has no relation to real life Pubs and independents.

Why are people looking to McCain? I think it’s because he talks about issues for real. He attacks bullshit spending, talks about people being able to keep their own money. He recognizes the futility of the “Trail of Tears” approach to immigration, talks about the “real man” issues involved in the War of Terror, and just basically speaks like someone who knows what the hell’s going on, and how to fix it. This is very refreshing to me, especially since his voting records backs him up most of the time.

He does not have the problems of Clinton/Obama with the experience question, and immediately attracts anyone who is looking at their checkbook and their tax bill, and thinks hard about the spending that the Dems propose. And, he talks in specifics - not hope/change/hope for change*.

I think that the Pubs have been painted as ultra-Christian, ultra-War Loving, ultra-Corporate Whores by a media with an axe to grind. Yes, those people exist, but are in no way the “mainstream” Pub as many of you seem to believe.

I have disagreements with some of his positions (McCain-Feingold, for one) but he generally seems to support my viewpoints (school vouchers, 88% rating by the Taxpayer’s Union).

And he can win - believe it…

  • Thanks to Dave Barry for this line - he is my personal Christ
19

Except that no candidate beat those drums harder than “Own the Surge” McCain, and none has less of an idea about economics than him, either. His nomination owes a great deal to this widespread media-fed meme that “the surge is working” and that Iraq is therefore not an issue. Who cares to bet that will still be the case in November?

20

http://thinkprogress.org/2008/02/13/mccain-field-manual/

Over at Think Progress, (standard warning!), they’re on about this vote coming up in the Senate, get rid of waterboarding (more or less). Reid needs some Pubbie senators to cross over, and the pressure is on McCain, who has made his principled anti-torture position widely known (ya know, the maverick…)

If he stands on stated principle, he’ll vote with Reid. If he wants to suck up to the WH and the base, he votes against.

My guess: he bails, he’s too busy, or something…