Well, once again, we had a set of major holidays (Christmas and New Years), and the Department of Homeland Security predictably enough raised the threat level due to alleged “chatter” they keep hearing out on the sub-etha net. This has almost become like clockwork; whenever a major American or Islamic holiday rolls around (4th of July, Ramadan, etc.), the DHS starts crying wolf, cranks the threat level to Orange, and tells everyone to Act Normally While Paying Extra-Vigilant Attention.
My proposition is that this is all a useless crock o’ crud.
Why? Think about it – if you were a terrorist planning an attack on American interests, would you do it near a major holiday, when everyone was on heightened alert? Or would you wait for an uneventful time, when alertness was lax, and try to do something then? Heck, just look at the 9/11 attacks for an example; no one can honestly say on 9/10/2001 that the date “September 11” had any special meaning whatsoever.
So if terrorists aren’t going to plan an attack on key dates, why does the DHS bother sending everyone into a panic at those times? Other than to give the impression they’re doing something, I mean?
Well, assume finite resources on both sides. Given that, the terror factor of an attack on the US on Christmas is larger than that of one on the 25th of June.
Now, a smart terrorist will of course consider the expected heightened security and plan accordingly. If it’s still easy enough or if the perceived terror value is high enough, then the action will still be planned for the holiday time. If not, then an easier date will be selected.
However, a government cannot assume that the terrorist is rational and/or has perfect information. So the government has to pick the most likely targets/times and increase security there. A smart government might even make a big public show of vigilance whilst diverting the bulk of it’s spending to other days, but the effect of the terrorists succeeding when security appeared to be tight would be devasting, so no government can actually do that.
All that’s BS though. The key point is that if you have intelligence that something may happen, you have to act on it. Can you imagine the anger against the government if they didn’t and something did happen.
Or you could say, if cynical, that the Government know there won’t really be attacks during holidays, but up the warning level anyway.
This way, when the attacks inevitably don’t occur, the populace can feel protected and the Government vindicated in their strategy. And if they somehow do face an attack at this time, then hey, the warning was in place. No real downside.
But I think you are using circular logic a little in your OP, rjung. You say it is the heightened warnings that deflect the possibility of the attacks, yet think there is thus no need for the warnings if there won’t be any attacks. If the government removed the one thing you rate as the defence (upping the warning level) then would you admit this may raise the possibility of attacks occurring at this time?
I think Al Qaeda would not chose to attack during Christmas as that is a “religious” period. (In quotes because it has more to do with shopping these days than religion).
Though I agree with the OP that the raised security does make it a bad "deal" to attempt attacks. AQ however likes spetacular attacks... and hitting the US even with "higher" security would make for a bigger bang.
Lets see if any real arrests are made after so many cancellations and noise... they must prove that so much hassle had a reason behind it. Otherwise all terrorists need to do is pick up the eletronic noise and send the US goverment skamepering into orange alerts.
Well, my thinking was more along the lines of the belief that terrorists won’t choose to attack during the major holidays regardless of whatever security level, just because it’s what people would be expecting. Plus, the extra crowds around those times would mean more folks to see them doing their shenanagans, which is another reason to shun those dates.
And I’m somewhat suspicious of the “increased chatter” that always gets cited about one of these things, since the geek in me believes that if they can listen in on the terrorists, they should also be able to trace that chatter and capture them – but they don’t. Sometimes I wonder how much of this “chatter” is actual terrorist scheming versus Joe Achmed making plans to visit his family for the holidays.
There is an ongoing operation to gather information about aircraft, cockpits, and air marshals. It is being done by people that have shown a previous interest in destroying aircraft. It’s not even being done subtly. When you combine this behavior with increased “chatter” then you get an elevated warning.
And the significance of 9/11 is that there was probably increased chatter that wasn’t connected with observed behavior. There were FBI agents who were alert to the pilot training in the US. If the FBI, CIA and NSA were legally allowed to cooperate with each other then 9/11 would not have happened.
As bad at 9/11 was it could have been a lot worse. Had they timed it a little later there would have been more deaths. We got to learn a valuable lesson. These terrorsts are without a soul and they are capable of anything.
9/11 DID have correlations…it was the 2nd anniversary of the Palestinian intifada into Israel…and the 500th anniversay of the defeat of the Turks at Vienna. Funny the hawks never understood anything about that.
This is precisely why they would want to. Not only because its a Christian holiday, but especially because they believe it to be a perfect symbol of American decadence, prosperity (in their minds thru oppression) and paganism.
Plus it would ruin Christmas for at least a generation, to make Dec 25[sup]th[/sup] a 9/11-type anniversary.
mascaroni
“Damned if they do. Damned if they don’t.”
I rather have rjung ranting about the government crying wolf and erring on the side of caution instead of ranting about why the government didn’t do more to stop a successful attack.
Do you have any actual facts to back up your opinion that the raised terror alert was a ruse? You kow. Something other than your hatred of the Bush administration?
I hate to have to remind you of this, but we are at war with Islamic terrorists at the moment. This is a new kind of war from people who’s main objective is to create fear and cause disruption to civilian life. Give me some facts to indicate that this alert was a ruse, and I’ll be glad to debate this with you.
I thought the main objective - no, make that the * only* objective - was to get the US the hell out of their lives, their culture and their future i.e.
Out of Saudi and away from Medina and Mecca
Away from the Iraqi people
The contribution to the oppression of the Palestinan people
The whole World Bank/IMF westernising,borrowing dollars thing whatsit
least that’s what ObL has always said.
Kind of feels a bit empty, in motivational terms, (as poitcal, suicide causes go) if the main object is to “create fear and cause disruption” - I can see recruitment problems as it doesn’t quite get the juices going.
You make them sound like traffic cops, or even Tom Ridge.
LC:
I should have said “main tacic”. I stand corrected about that, but the main point still holds.
I have no doubt that some level of politics enters into the decisions to raise or lower alert status. An assertion was made, however, that politics was the main, or possibly only, reason. I’d like to see some facts to support this.
I guess it depends on what kind of terrorist attack we’re talking about. Back before they started making the smallpox vaccine again, I did some research on the disease, intending to write a story in which terrorists let loose arosoled versions of the virus (which do exist) in 100 different US airports at the same time on Thanksgiving day. Why? Because it’s the most heavily traveled day of the year, and people going here to there can drag the disease along with them to thousands of cities and towns. Bioterrorism isn’t flashy, so no one would be the wiser for 10-14 days after the attack when the first people began to become sick.
Obviously this holiday would be a less attractive date for the regular, highly visiable terrorism, but the holidays are prefect for delayed gratification.
