What impact do you think the information released by Wikileaks will have on the Middle-East/Iran? I’ve isolated some stories (in no particular order) that I think will have an effect.
Acknowledgement by Israeli generals that American commitment to Israel’s QME is not absolute due to the USA’s other interests in the area. I choose this because if it gets selected by the USA’s press a lot of people could ask why the USA is selling top of the range weapons to Egypt, Saudi Arabia et. WikiLeaks: Israel's Security Concerns Often Clash With U.S. Interests | HuffPost The World Post
The view by Israel that it is now too late to take limited military action against Iran as they’ve had time to harden their positions. This may play a role in limiting what the USA’s public think is possible.
Can we post any further stories relating to the ME and discuss what their consequences are?
For me one of the big relevations is just how afraid of Iran getting nuclear weapons most Arab states are. Even going to the length of threating to develop bombs themselves or have USA’s weapons station there, knowing the extent of public backlash they would get. It really puts a whole in Huntingdon’s clash civilisations theory.
As before can we avoid discussions on conspiracy theories, the meaning of rape and the morality of leaking secret documents.
*They’ve released about 400 of 250,000+ cables now, if they release 200 a day that’s about 1300 days I think.
If Iran as much as look cock-eyed at Israel, the Jews will press the button. If they can’t have their ‘holy land’ they’ll make sure its hollier than Swiss cheese, and that it’s garnished with more isotopes than a parmasen on chicken, before they let any non-Jew Arab can get their sandy hands on it!
What I don’t get is why all these ME countries are asking/expecting the US to attack Iran. If they are all that worried, and it seems they are, why don’t they all ally and attack Iran themselves?
I don’t know how long ME countries have been worried about Iran, but it seems they were happy to let Iraq fight with them in the 1980s but they still want somebody else to do their dirty work for them.
I am not sure what your personal beliefs might be regarding Israelis or Jewish people, but your comments register pretty heavily on the “anti-semitic” scale. This is not the place to be inciting other posters to feuds and you will knock it off if you wish to continue posting, here.
Dunno about that - if anything, it demostrates the pervasive influence of history on modern conflict. The “clash of civilizations” is simply more multifaceted than some imagine …
Muslims are not one big, undifferentiated block who share a common notion of destiny. Iran is Persian, not Arab, and Shi’ite, not Sunni. There have always been tensions within Islam, and as Islamic fundamentalism becomes more of an issue, these tensions are likely going to become worse and not better.
To quote an earlier theory of political conflict - this is sort of like the "“mandala” principle of foreign policy originally proposed in the Arthashastra: one’s immediate neighbours are more threatening enemies, because their interests may be permanently at odds with your own - while the US may send armies into the ME, everyone expects them to leave, sooner rather than later. The Iranians are not going anywhere.
It’s the difference between what Arab leaders believe and what the people think. The Cables are reflecting the opinions of Governments - they view Iran as their most imminent threat. But opinion polls consistently suggest that approx 70% of the people in Egypt/Arabia view the USA as a threat compared with about 10% who view Iran as a threat.
Even if they are dictators, going against public opinion has consequences. Not the least stirring up the various Islamic Revolutionary groups that are already a thorn in their sides.
These leaks alone may encourage more people to join the Muslim Brotherhood etc if they interpret their leaders actions as being a betrayal of Islam.
And on a more basic level they don’t have military capacity to launch a naval attack, so they’d have to go through Iraq. Which is problematic.
Take a look at this map. Mentally replace the words “Iraq” and “Afghanistan” with “Nation full of US troops”. Replace “Turkey” and “Pakistan” with “US allies”. Perhaps that might help explain why the US is expected/requested to attack as well as why middle eastern nations can not. It might even explain why Iran is so keen on getting a nuke to begin with.
