There are many stories of people who fled into the ocean and survived. Some were there for hours. I haven’t yet found a report of someone doing this who did not survive, though it will probably be a long time until all the stories are known.
It would be normal for smoke from very hot fires to rise rapidly, leaving the air just above the water at least breathable. And in the strong easterly wind, Lahaina was on the lee side of the island and thus swimmers would not have had to deal with huge waves.
There have been numerous reports of bodies recovered from the sea. Could be those were already injured people who succumbed to their burns later, people who died on land and the bodies ended up in the water one way or another or it could be people that drowned. As you say it will take some time to sort out.
I know if I was pinned against the sea, first thing I would do is look for a very nearby boat, second thing is wade on in. When you have only bad options and worse options, bad always win.
A WaPo story i read last night included several survivor accounts, including one woman who fled into the ocean. She said guy near her died, probably of a smoke inhalation. She also thought some people might have drifted off to sea. She’s currently living in shelters, and covered with bruises and lacerations from her time in the ocean.
Nature News has published an article on the causes behind the increase in Hawaiian wildfires in recent years and the root causes of the Maui wildfire, many of them discussed in an AP link early in this thread:
Something I haven’t seen previously is discussion of how to prevent or at least mitigate future wildfires. The discussion of native Hawaiian methods of managing wildfire danger is eerily similar to some of the descriptions of the Californian Native population methods discussed in Bring Your Own Brigade, the 2021 documentary covering the Camp Fire that devastated Paradise, CA.
From Nature News:
Kamelamela, who is Native Hawaiian, says that whether the plants in an area are native or introduced is less important than how carefully land is cared for. In the past, people who gathered resources from a forest would also tidy it up, removing undergrowth or even replanting important plants. But such labour-intensive traditional work is hard to fit into a hectic modern life. “Most people in Hawaii have two to three jobs and are just trying to take their kids to soccer practice,” she says.
If the local TV station had been on top of this they could have warned people to evacuate early and how to do it. People close to the shoreline could have used bicycles to offset any traffic jams. That picture of the kids looking up a street at a roaring fire really strikes home.
Really, all you need to know is “FIRE” and “60 MPH WINDS”.
An interesting insight on how the fires got so bad: invasive non-native grasses (which are well adapted to cycles of burning and regrowth) fueled a lot of the brushfire because it had grown explosively in a preceding wet time, neglected and ignored until it dried out and became the foundation of much of the wildfire.
Heat is a big factor. People who ride motorcycles will understand that speed is a factor. When it’s hot out, going faster on the bike makes the rider hotter from heat soak. The same applies to a fire moving at highway speeds. The already intolerable temperature of the fire is magnified by the speed due to heat soak.
So escaping to the ocean still exposes people to smoke AND heat. Bobbing in the water will mitigate heat if there is enough shoreline for people to stand in the water. But as already stated, this was a problem.
I would expect backup generators for TV stations and internet broadcasting if their towers are down. But that’s an assumption. When the weather is really bad in my area I go to my phone first.
What I read was that Lahaina is almost all electric, and the water supply is dependent on electric pumps attached to the grid. When the power went out, no water for hydrants. If true, that sounds like a major design flaw.
I did hear about 60 people who had gathered at a house that was basically surrounded by fire damage, and they had no way to communicate with the outside world. Most of them were on one missing list or another, and obviously were stricken off when they were found, alive and relatively safe.
I also wonder how many of the missing were swept out to sea, and am honestly surprised I haven’t heard any stories about bodies washing up on shores, there or nearby. Maybe that’s happened and I haven’t seen it.
And one other thing, which may have been addressed but I haven’t read the whole thread. Some conspiracy theorists are spreading the concept that the fire may have been deliberately started so crooked real estate speculators from places like China or Saudi Arabia could grab up that prime real estate. While I know predatory investors have descended on the island, I doubt anyone would be greedy enough to destroy a city on purpose for a reason like this.
There are plenty of historical examples of people destroying cities for all sorts of terrible reasons. I agree that the conspiracy theories are nonsense, but not because there aren’t people capable—those capable just have easier and surer ways to exploit their fellow humans.
