As you may remember, George Bush won the 2000 election when SCOTUS ended Al Gore’s appeal. It was a close, disputed election and the first 8 months in 2001 Bush didn’t do well in the polls and didn’t seem popular. Many Americans felt he shouldn’t be president. Then the 9/11 terrorists attacks happened and there was a knee jerk reaction. He shot up in the polls and the prevailing attitude seemed to be we should support our President in times of crisis or war. Called wag the dog. USA invaded Iraq and Afghanistan.
I see a lot of similarities with Trump now. Many Americans feel he shouldn’t be president and there has been much protesting this year. But now Iran is blaming the USA for the Israel attack. Trump is warning them not to attack USA or there will be big military response. If Iran or terrorists supporteres do attack, there may be similar public reaction and approval swing to help support Trump. Is wag the dog coming again?
I don’t think so. Bush vs Gore was a standard campaign of politician versus a different politician. There was, and still is, a legitimate question as to who won, how many votes they received, and so forth.
Unlike Bush versus Gore, Trump won both the electoral vote and the popular vote. Since he started his second term, he has done many evil and illegal things. But, he is the legitimately elected President.
No. 9/11 was attack by terrorists on US soil. We couldn’t be sure just who was behind it, how many members were left, what arms and resources they had, or where they were. We know all that about Iran. If they attacked us, we would be entirely justified in counterattacking them. The amount of resources we could use would be massive.
Second, Trump is not just another politician. He is a hate-filled fascist. If we counterattaked Iran, I would likely support the military operation (though it is entirely possible Trump would screw that up too) but continue to call Trump a hate-filled fascist.
Also, 9/11 came as a complete surprise to almost everyone, and not just everyone in the US. Everyone.
Iran striking US military units in the middle east, or even terrorist attacks within the US itself, won’t surprise anyone. Iran has been one of the Big Boogiemen for most of my life at this point, and they’re already in a shooting war with a major US ally. So there won’t be quite the level of “OMG! WTF?!?” motivating people’s reactions.
I suspect quite a few people will react by asking Trump, “Well, what did you expect?”
Let’s not forget, a big part of why this war is happening now is because Trump unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal that was supposed to prevent shit like this from happening in the first place. He’s reaping the easily-predicted consequences of his own trash policies. That’s not a great recipe for generating a sudden surge of support for him among the people who think he’s destroying the country.
He’s talking about US bases in Iraq and other countries near Iran, not about attacks on the US. Iran has barely managed to do any retaliation against Israel. There is of course no certainty in predicting the future, but I can’t see Iran being able to carry out an attack on US soil that kills 3,000 civilians, even if it wanted to. Which public blustering aside, I doubt is something Iran wants to do because of the obvious consequences.
Retaliating against US bases in Iraq? Sure, I can see that happening. They’ve already done similar in the past, and there are some reports out there that Iranian proxies in Iraq attempted drones strike in Iraq on the 15th. I can’t see this helping TFG in the polls.
TFG’s handling of the situation has, in fact, turned a good part of the MAGA crowd against him.
MAGA to Trump: Supporting Israel attacks is a ‘middle finger’ to voters | Responsible Statecraft
MAGA Warned Trump on Iran. Now He’s In An Impossible Position. - POLITICO
Israel-Iran war spotlights MAGA divide
MAGA Splitting Over Israel’s Strikes on Iran Poses ‘Dilemma’ for Trump - Newsweek
Trump tries to redefine ‘America First’ in the face of MAGA backlash
MTG rants over US involvement in Iran-Israel conflict and says ‘real America First/MAGA’ don’t want foreign wars | The Independent
I don’t see the country unifying around Trump due to a terrorist attack.
The 9/11 attack brought the war against radical Islam into public consciousness. The US had had issues with Islamism before (the attacks on the USS Cole, the first bombing of the WTC, etc) but 9/11 was a major unexpected attack that changed public consciousness.
Also so many people understand how evil and incompetent Trump is. If anything, a major terror attack will create more urgency to remove him and replace him with someone competent, even if its JD Vance. The last thing a lot of us want is for Trump to be given emergency power or be trusted with important decisions. Theres going to be a massive push to replace Trump with a more competent republican among large swaths of the public if the shit hits the fan.
Like the others said, the 9/11 rally-around-the-flag effect that gave Bush a 90% approval rating was a one-time thing. It won’t ever be like that again. If anything, a major attack on America or big war in the Middle East would crater Trump’s approval rating.
On top of that, Dubya, for all his faults, was 100x the statesman and decent guy that Trump is. There’s a reason even Democrats were able to temporarily rally around and like Bush for a short time.
Ineptitude is not close to outright evil dictator vibe.
Plus Trump is inept as well.
Double dose, you might say.