What affect does testing numbers have on this discussion when NY has 40% of the total deaths and lately around half the daily deaths? They may be testing much more but the positive results of that testing is not showing up in the total death column, That would be state totals and not accounting for the deaths in other states in the NYC metro area.
The only number that matters is probably R.
Different states are at different points on their trajectory for not much other reason than the date when their first infected person arrived. Nowhere is doing better than another if they have the same reproduction rate. They are just waiting a bit longer for the inevitable.
Quarantine only works if either - you have exactly no local cases - even asymptomatic ones - or you are adding quarantine to a total local lockdown, and it is you that are quarantining yourself from all others.
Quarantining NY because it is currently in a bad way and not doing the same for every other state is simply not understanding what the problem is.
I do worry that the idea foremost ideas that come out against quarantine are that it is unconstitutional or un-American. These are badly off point. It seems to say that if the constitution bans a move that will save many many thousands of lives it still must be adhered to, or that tradition American freedoms override life. It is pretty unlikely that your founding fathers had seen a pandemic rip into their own populace. They were concerned to weld together a disparate union.
Travel and population densities have changed the entire world in ways they could never have imagined.
Personally I suspect the USA will be fundamentally changed by this. The trick may be to try to make those changes for the better. But just relying on the current norms to guide how is not going to work.
monstro, quarantines only work if you quarantine early and lock it down completely. This is no the case in NY nor in the US.
Coronovirus prolly went across the world in the aftermath of the Consumer Electronic Show in LAs Vegas the second week of January (this is my wag).
How many New Yorkers have fled to vacation homes, cottages, Florida or anywhere else in the past few months? Millions, right? This isn’t a genie you can put back in the bottle.
How many spring breakers on the beach went back to where ever they are from asymptomatic?
How many people went to Mardi Gras and are now back in middle America?
Trump is chasing the headlines from where outbreaks are being noticed. Not trying to contain where the outbreaks will be. Closing NYC or NY State is like imposing the travel ban on China without doing fuck all else. Maybe delayed things a bit but is a case of fiddling while Rome burns.
It is totally human nature. The smartest thing is to get out of a hot zone before a quarantine hits, because then you’re trapped. If you get out, a) you might not have it and b) if you have it, hopefully the health care where you are now infecting still has a working hospital system. As a government, of course you want to lock down and let it burn out in place like China did with Wuhan.
Last time I checked, the US does not have any legal way to enforce a quarantine on something like NY State. And if trumpy does it, you can kiss the elections in November goodbye.
All of those essential workers need to be able to get to and from those jobs, you know. “Car culture” isn’t viable in an area so densely populated as NYC.
Will American support actual quarantine? As mentioned, “essential” work remains. In areas requiring close contact, are “essential workers” the sacrificial lambs? Who is susceptible? Emergency responders - cops, firefighters, EMTs and all medics. Will quarantines become mandatory if too many responders are COVIDed into submission?
Cedar Creek was portrayed by actual Ferndale CA, south of Humboldt Bay and Eureka. No cases there yet. When COVID hits Mar-a-Lago, can that pesthole be swept clean?
I predict a dramatic rise in equine-drawn jitneys hauling industrial workers to critical work. Those ousted from waitperson and such jobs can work sweeping up the wastes.