Will Hillary Clinton be the next U.S. President?

[RTFirefly]

Things are looking good for Hillary in Iowa. Let me move this over from the Jeb! thread:

@adaher

First let’s see if she can win IA and/or NH. Biden’s exit from the race doesn’t seem to have improved her standing in the two states that are actually paying attention.

@RTFirefly

OK, let’s look at Iowa. Three polls have been taken in Iowa since Biden dropped out: CBS/YouGov, Quinnipiac, and Des Moines Register. All three also polled Iowa in the last 10 days of August and/or the first 10 days of September. Let’s compare (Hillary’s numbers first, then Bernie’s, in all cases):

CBS then: 33-43. Now: 46-43. Hillary goes from -10 to +3.
Q then: 40-41. Now: 51-40. Hillary goes from -1 to +11.
DMR then: 37-30. Now: 48-41. Hillary stays at +7.

Looks like an improvement to me.

In NH, there’s been only one post-Biden poll, also by CBS/YouGov, and they polled NH in early September also.

CBS then: 30-52. Now: 39-54. Hillary goes from -22 to -15.

That also looks like an improvement.

And before you say the obvious “Hillary’s still behind by 15 in NH,” she’s really not, except for this one poll. No other poll since the beginning of July had Bernie up by more than 16 in NH, so CBS was an outlier for having Bernie up by 22. And the other polls now in RCP’s NH average have Hillary and Bernie essentially tied there, even with Biden in all the numbers, so once again CBS is an outlier.

Anyway, as best as we can tell, Biden’s exit seems to have helped Hillary in Iowa and NH. She’s got a clear lead in Iowa, and is competitive in NH. And the effects of her Benghazi! testimony have yet to affect the polls.

Not sure why we’re discussing this in the Jeb! thread, but whatever.

@RTFirefly

New Monmouth poll of Iowa Dems has Hillary absolutely crushing it, 65-24.