New Hampshire, yes, but not Iowa. You’ve mentioned before that you like to look at RCP. If you do, where do you base this belief about Iowa on?
Iowa: Clinton +6.3
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html
I was referring to the betting markets.
Really? You actually think that is as legitimate as polling data?
Polling data shows where we are now. Betting markets predict the future. But no, I don’t claim that either are reliable predictors, just that Sanders is close in Iowa and that Clinton failed to close the deal in 2008 there.
My own money would be on Sanders winning IA and NH if Biden doesn’t announce he’s entering.
I’d also note that turnout is important in the caucuses because of the difficulty of voting, and high name recognition candidates without a devoted following tend to underperform. The last likely voter poll taken in IA showed Sanders up by 10.
The one before that showed him up by 1. Clinton last led a likely voter poll in IA in late August.
I don’t want to take sides in some of these disputes (except to note those who think Hillary will win easily are wildly over-optimistic) but …
… studies have shown that prediction markets are significantly better predictors than polls are.
I don’t disagree with your Hillary observation but I do know betting lines can change dramatically the closer the event gets. Given that I don’t see a reason at this point for HRC to be overly concerned.
She saw a 50 point lead fall to under 16 and she’s poised to lose the first two contests. I think it’s safe to say she’s concerned.
I haven’t been following Hillary’s campaign so far but I remember her campaign against Obama was lazy and uninspiring. Obama’s ground game was legendary and Clinton was asleep at the switch until far too late. We’re still a long way from the ballot box but if Clinton wants to win she’ll have to learn lessons from those previous campaigns and why his worked while hers didn’t. If she feels entitled to the Presidency, she won’t win. If she works hard and gives people a reason to want her in the White House, she might.
No sign of her learning. She’s doing few events and few interviews, just like last time. Avoidance of the media and the public is not a campaign. She’s basically just got her name out there and occasionally pops out of her hole long enough to announce a new position on an issue.
It’s so early that this might actually be the best strategy right now. It really is incredibly early.
It is the best strategy for her. She can’t answer the tough questions. If she was as out there as Ben Carson she’d plummet in the polls even further.
Oh please, she’s a thousand times more polished than Carson. At least she wouldn’t be stupid enough to say “Hey, I had a gun pulled on me and I told the guy he should point it at this other guy!” Carson is taking on water and is starting to list.
That being said, Hillary’s newfound opposition of TPP has all the sincerity of a Christmas card from binLaden.
There is no reason for her to distract anyone from the spectacle of the Republicans all disqualifying themselves, is there?
Or her plan to break up too big to fail banks. Especially since we’ve heard no gnashing of teeth from the banking sector.
I dunno, Matt Yglesias has said banks will hate it:
May I ask, which betting markets are you looking at specifically?
The bet he has with his brother in law, I assume.
I didn’t claim that her avoidance of the media was for the same reason. Only that she can’t stand up to scrutiny and performs poorly in hostile interviews, which is pretty much all of them these days. She can’t answer the questions, and as you mentioned about TPP, she can’t even come close to sounding plausible about why she flipped on that. Plus we know she’s lying, she’ll flip back as soon as she gets into office. President Obama has rightfully called it “campaign talk”.
Yes, unlike Carson, if you ask Clinton about the issues she’ll perform well. Unlike Carson, ask her about herself and her conduct and she goes into “laugh hysterically” mode or claims the voters trust her and don’t want to hear about that stuff. Carson would be thrilled if all journalists did was ask him about Ben Carson and his life and accomplishments.
Well I’m pretty sure the key democrats have already nominated her. The primarys are just a game to keep democratic activists busy. Sanders people are going to be upset when they find out but he will make a long speech about how awesome Hillary is and they will support her lock step.
Its just how politics work especially with democrats.