Trump is running on a very anti-immigrant stance, he is anti-free trade and he supports the welfare state (medicare, medicaid, social security). He is very hostile to a balance of power because he is attacking the judiciary and the media for not bowing to his commands or for questioning him. He is an outspoken proponent of torture and other war crimes.
Could libertarians stay home or vote Clinton (or third party) and act as a major spoiler in this election cycle?
Why wouldn’t the Libertarians (such as they are) just vote Libertarian?
Why would actual Libertarians care who the Republicans nominate? Why would they care so much that they would go forth and vote for the Democrat, who, whatever her virtues, is decidedly not a libertarian?
I thought the Libertarians liked their candidate, this go-round?
Although Trump is definitely problematic for these voters, I don’t think that a group who are “Highly critical of government. Disapprove of social welfare programs. Pro-business and strongly opposed to regulation.” are likely Clinton voters.
My hope is that many of these people will vote Libertarian, which (assuming they are ordinarily reliable Republican voters) is essentially the same as voting for Clinton.
They never do, though, do they? In presidential elections, they have only topped 1% of the popular vote once, and that was in 1980 (when they got 1.06%).
They had the same candidate last go-round, didn’t they? If they wouldn’t vote for him then, why would we cherish much hope that they will vote for him now?
Is the key here that this group may be classified as libertarians by analysts, but they don’t necessarily identify as, or think of themselves as, libertarians?
Both of them?
Because most of the vote they could hope to get comes from nominal Republicans who can’t stand Trump and can’t force themselves to vote for Clinton. Their only hope of getting noticed at all *depends *on who the Republicans nominate.
Libertarians tend to vote republican, and because of how our system works voting for the lesser of two evils is superior to voting for a third party in swing states. So progressives vote for the democrats when they really want the green or socialist party while libertarians and tea partiers vote republican when they prefer the constitution party or libertarian party.
I think the Libertarians might get a record number of votes in this election. But it won’t make them a factor in the election. It’ll just be part of the recognition that Trump is a horrible candidate. Some voters who might have voted for a different Republican will choose to vote for Johnson as a protest vote rather than vote for Clinton or not vote at all. But I feel Clinton will win by a clear majority and any votes Trump loses to Johnson won’t be a deciding factor in the outcome.
If things continue as they are now Hillary will look like she has such a commanding lead that numerous people vote Libertarian because they think Hillary doesn’t need their vote or they think there’s no point in voting for Trump. Some of it will be true believers, some of it will be a protest vote, none of it will change the outcome.
ETA: Pretty much what Nemo just said.
I agree with this. The only reason that the LP will hop over the very low bar of its past performance in this election will be the utterly pathetic candidacy of Trump. In 2020, the Republicans will hopefully nominate someone who is a better candidate and that will pull the rug out from under the LP. I suspect most of the votes for Johnson will be protest votes rather than votes of support for Johnson’s positions.
While it’s possible 10% of the voting base identifies with many of the same values as the Libertarian Party, like 98% of those people either vote Republican or are right-leaning swing voters who usually vote Republican (but might sometimes vote Dem due to aversion to socially conservative Republicans.) If the LP gets a little more than its usual sliver of the vote it may be because some of these Republicans, so put off by Trump, vote for that party, but it won’t be a huge amount.
Both parties in America are essentially coalitions. In a coalition the “mean” policy proposals represent the center point of the weighted policy positions of the coalition members, generally speaking. So there are a huge number of Republicans to the left of the party on many issues, and a huge number to the right. Same for the Democrats. In theory they could all fracture into different parties but there’s very little reason or desire to do so by most voters.
If you look at the Democratic side, Bernie represents the large portion of the Democratic party that is to the left of the party mean. Most of his voters are life time Dem voters (even his “independents”, who analysis has shown are really just people who don’t like the idea of registering as Democrats but who have largely always voted for Democrats anyway) and will vote Dem in the election. A smaller portion Bernie’s voters are people who probably voted for Nader or other minority candidates in the past, and may do so again now that he has lost the nomination–but those voters were never really in serious play for the Democrats anyway (just like the very small number of actual Libertarian party voters weren’t in play for the Republicans.)
Both Trump and Bernie do appear to have brought in some people who have largely not participated in voting before. That’s the only real wild card with this election.
I really doubt it’s as high as that unless you define libertarian values very loosely.
Look at Sanders’ campaign. He appealed to left-wing progressives who he felt the Democratic mainstream was ignoring. And he found a lot of support. His supporters aren’t a majority and Sanders didn’t get nominated but he showed there are a lot of progressives out there.
Now look at people like Ron or Rand Paul. They tried to do the same thing by appealing to the libertarians who they felt existed but were being ignored by the Republican mainstream. And all of their campaigns went nowhere. There apparently are no masses of libertarians out there waiting to join a movement.
Libertarians are not now and never will be a “major” anything.
Oh, I dunno… There are many collective nouns.
The Pew Political Typology is done by asking respondents to answer a group of survey questions on issues; then the analysts develop that iteration’s typology groups based on their responses.