Personally, I doubt that the Republicans have much hope of winning the White House this time around. But with McCain the likely Republican nominee, I’m wondering if his choice of running mate will be particularly important this time for two reasons: firstly to lay down a marker for 2012, and secondly because even if elected there’s a jolly good chance that McCain won’t complete his first term (let alone a second).
It’s only important in the sense that people seem to be micro-analyzing this election as none that I’ve ever seen before. But you’ll have to wait until after the election to find out-- that’s when it everyone will proclaim that it’s crystal clear why McCain won/lost. Just like the market analysts always come up with some reason why the Dow went up or down.
No kidding. I think it’s because it’s February and the main stuff has been hashed out for so long.
And I don’t think voters are going to spend a lot of time thinking about his age. McCain is healthy as far as anybody knows. I’m joining the big bandwagon and saying he’ll pick Huckabee to try and get more religious right support, adn that’ll be that.
It might be important for Republicans. Many conservatives don’t like McCain because he’s a moderate. He’ll almost certainly pick a solid conservative in an attempt to satisfy his party’s base. Either Romney or Huckabee would be a natural running mate.
Except many of the Republican pundits who don’t like McCain, don’t like Huckabee either. Limbaugh and others have been just as critical of Huckabee (can’t say that from personal knowledge, but that’s what the talking heads on CNN were saying this afternoon). If so, how does picking Huckabee help?
Yeah, this is kind of a fascinating point. Huckabee would probably help McCain with evangelical Christians, and I think he is the best ‘name’ pick. But Huckabee breaks with Republican fiscal policies, and his whole sales pitch was that he’s ‘a conservative, but not mad at anybody.’ So McCain is sort of vulnerable to attacks from the religious right AND the fiscal conservatives. It’s very interesting that he’s going to win the nomination without strong support from either. But none of his opponents managed to make the religious+fiscal sale either.
I think in McCain’s case, it is. First is his age. He’s a healthy old fellow, but he’s still an old fellow. Then there’s his appeal to independents and crossovers. Run with Lieberman, he might hang onto them. Run with Huckabee, and these voters run for the hills.
For all of the ink has been spilled about how Clinton and Obama are at each other’s throats - although they agree on almost everything - I think McCain and Romney really dislike each other. I don’t think they could team up. And if Romney wanted to be VP, why quit now instead of proving he could help the campaign by winning more states?
Duh, his age. Not only that he could become incapacitated or dead with greater odds than a 60 yo or less, but that he is more likely than most to be a one termer.
But as has been pointed out - the importance of what direction he will try to sell himself to: To the independents and the liberal wing of his party? Or to the Religious Right? If HRC is the Democratic nod then does he rev up his base against her? Or try to pull in the disaffected Democrats? If its Obama, does he fight for the independents in the middle or pull right?
As a Democrat who dislikes HRC I might consider McCain with the right VP (especially if she unmuzzles attack dog Bill again, goes more Rovian along the way, or wins by means of seating MI or FL). Huckabee as VP means I work for her election anyway.
Though I know it won’t happen, I wish he’d pick Arnie to run with him. What a great ticket THAT would be. Of course, if McCain DID kick the bucket during his term it would throw a wrench in the succession…but can you imagine the Governator as VP??
Oh well…now back to reality. It will probably be Romney. I think Huckleberry Fin is the kiss of death on McCain’s ticket this go around (not that I’m sanguine about his chances in a general election at this point regardless of running mate, mind).
My issues are things like not keeping the wealthy tax cuts, getting a free school lunch for kids in the Delta and bringing guys home from Iraq. What are your issues that you would prefer McCain over Clinton no matter how odious she appears to you?
Yes, I know that. Correct me if I’m wrong here, but I didn’t think that was a bar to being VP…only President. As I said, if he DID become VP and McCain kicked the bucket he wouldn’t be in line for the succession…which would be odd. But I didn’t think there was any legal bar on the VP being a naturalized citizen.
Anyway, I know it won’t happen. It would just be one of those thing that would be really cool if it did, in some alternative universe.