This makes sense. A lot of people wilo lsay “it can’t hurt to see Grandma.” Some of them will infect their loved ones.
As to this, I would point out that those officials are not idiots, and they know “indefinitely” isn’t possible, and in fact it’s going to get harder every week. You are right, in my opinion, that a general “everyone stay home” order is going to be very, very hard to enforce longer than a couple of months.
But they would be totally insane to make a promise at this point. If elected officials come out and say “Alright, as of May 6, we’re good to go” and then things go worse than expected and they have to renege on that promise, they will totally lose people’s trust, and their ability to keep things lockdown will swiftly fall apart. On the other hand, if they’re pessimistic but then announce on May 6 (I just picked that date at random) “Alright, we’re gonna start easing the lockdown; next week A B and C can open, and the week after that, D E and F” people will be delighted.
Of course, in the USA, anyway, you have the added problem that MANY people aren’t respecting it now - there will always be dumbasses, shitwits, and oafs, but there are swaths of the population who simply refuse to believe that this is really a problem. As someone else on the board said, having one place quarantined and other not in different parts of the same country is like having a peeing section in a swimming pool.
Yep, we are all told to shut up and do what we are told.
I’m not worried about a Great Depression because we don’t have the problem that had. We’ve effectively slowed down the economy, but all of the stuff is still there and could be started up if absolutely necessary. People keep acting like the economy is in some unknowable state, but it’s not. We can see it and react to it.
As I pointed out in the other thread about this, the plan has never been to shelter in place indefinitely. There has always been the idea of letting up restrictions as possible. Repeated pauses actually work better than one long pause.
And I think that is built in, even if people do rebel. They will only rebel so far. The main thing the rebellion does is make it where the actual rules have to be more strict that necessary to account for those who want to listen to their own feelings and not the experts. It’s like how a parent may have the curfew at 11:00 when they really wouldn’t care if the kid was out to midnight.
As such, I don’t see much reason to add to the anxiety of this time by worrying about this. The economy will be fine. The people will be fine. Idiots will idiot, but they’ll get scared back in, while the rest of us will maintain more isolation than required.
It’s enough to be worried about you and those around you possibly contracting the virus. It’s enough to do what you personally can, not worry about the things beyond your control–even if that is incredibly hard.
How is anyone supposed to be able to predict “what people are going to to”?
I know there’s a political faction that wants to remove isolation ASAP, regardless of public health risk, to keep the economy going.
I know the reality-based community wants to base any relaxation on the epidemic seeming to be under control.
Who will win? Who will rebel in the streets and tell the police to shove their curfew? How am I supposed to answer this question?
If you ask me, this post just seems like a timid way to suggest “we should end this soon regardless of what the numbers are” without actually coming out and saying it.
I don’t mind the social distancing, when I get groceries I don’t go near anyone. Imiind that, without a car, I can’t get my dunkin and tacos. I could easily decide to go at a slow hour. i
What was the problem they had, that you don’t have?
The gold standard. That meant many countries had too low of a money supply.
If asked why the U.S. had a worse depression than most other countries, I would point to our lack of bank deposit insurance and tight fiscal policy. FDR believed in balanced budgets for too long.
As for the thread question, the answer is undeniably yes, almost by definition.
However, I think the word quarantine confuses the issue. Quarantine is something applied to a person who has a disease, or is suspected of having it due to association with something who has it. In the United States, there isn’t much in the way of quarantine in most places, although Massachusetts is hiring people to do it, and we do have a hotel where some people are quarantined in Philadelphia. What I think the OP means by quarantine is ordered closure of businesses, and other venues. If kept up long enough, there will get to a point that it is unpopular, and people will stop distancing, and politicians will react to that. You could call that rebellion.
Quarantine in a bold policy because, well, it goes against modern ideas of personal autonomy. Ordering closures, at times when most people aren’t wanting to go to movies or restaurants, is just going with the flow. It’s make-believe leadership, for the most part. And it explains why the U.S. has a worse outbreak of disease than some other democracies.
When I had a positive TB test, I was quarantined by the state health department. It wouldn’t have occurred to me to break the quarantine. I would hate to be the agent of someone else’s infection.
Yep, don’t want to kill grandma by accident! My eldest is away at University in Orange CA (LA Area). Grandma lives in San Diego. Eventually, we all decided that while it would have been nice to see Grandma over spring break, it would suck for life to somehow be “guilty” of passing along Covid.
In Australia the Great Depression was much smaller than our post-land-boom, post gold-rush depression of the 1890s, and the more recent “GFC” saw people coming here to get jobs: our major trading partner was also not affected, and anyway we were in the middle of a mining development boom.
Australia has always had an export-led economy, and the local effect of the Great Depression was caused by the reduction in world trade, which would be why I think of it that way. It’s possible that a reduction in world travel will have a significant effect on Australia.
I wish people would stop saying the plan is and ”experts”. Since there is no plan and no experts. No one has gone through a global pandemic which shuts the whole world down at the same time. Sure some learned people have studied it, but a study is no substitute for experience. People are making this up as they go along. Just look at the difference in reporting from today versus 3 weeks ago.
We can talk about the economy versus flattening the curve until the cows come home, but simply put we only have projections. For both. All we have a best guess of how the economy will suffer versus the effects of a rebound once opening. And no one knows where the happy medium lies. And lie if they say they do.
Unfortunately, even this has become political. Apparently if you worry about the rebound you are an of touch leftist elitist and pointing out that the current shutdown is not sustainable for very much longer make one a Trump loving neo Nazi who doesn’t care if people die.
There’s informed opinion from people who are considered expert in the field or fields related to what is happening now; then there are WAGs from people who are not such experts. Your stance above would be like saying that the Apollo astronauts were not experts at landing their spacecraft on the Moon. They were.
Considering all the 9 Apollo flights which went to moons SOI experienced serious anomalies, which would in a LEO mission, have led to the mission being aborted there and then, you might want to revisit that analogy.
If I remember the estimation for chances of catastrophic failure on Apollo 8 was 1/3, 1/4 for Apollo 10 and 1/10 for Apollo 11.
Nah. I think I’ll go with the simple fact that it worked.
Every epidemic is sightly different, but every few years there’s a new scary-ass novel virus that expert epidemiologists and medical personnel struggle to contain. SARS and related novel viruses of the past decade could have been as widespread and COVID if they weren’t identified and contained by expert intervention.
I agree the economy is in uncharted waters because we’ve never had a pandemic blow up this big. But don’t pretend as if there aren’t expert epidemiologists playing whack-a-mole with global pandemics who have a very good idea what needs to be done. Don’t pretend that there isn’t a plan, just because the existing plans are generally painful.
Nobody is saying this. If this is what you think you’re hearing, it’s because people interpret information at the grade level that’s easiest for them to process.
SARS also had the benefit of being contagious only when symptoms emerged.
Also the earlier outbreaks were dealt with by moving resources from unaffected areas to the epicentres.
How many unaffected areas are there again? And epidemiologists that I have read are pretty much in agreement that i) Their prior planning was based on avoiding a shut down and ii) the did not realise that lockdown mitigation would be necessary.
Typhoid is not nearly as infectious.
I’m waiting for more of a backlash than rebellion as a matter of fact it’s being hinted at in certain circles: “How much longer do I have to sit here trapped with my family and not being able to provide for them for someone who’s gonna die anyway?”.
Waiting for hate towards the elderly, sick and poor any day now…
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