Will Ron Paul beat Romney in Virginia?

Politics & Elections
1

A federal judge on Friday ruled against four Republican presidential candidatesseeking a spot on Virginia’s March 6 primary ballot, saying they waited too long to file their claims. This means only Mitt Romney and Ron Paul will be on the ballot.

So far, Romney has benefited by the failure of conservative Republicans to unite behind one “Not Romney” candidate, diluting their influence and allowing Romney to slip up the middle. But if he has to face only Ron Paul in Virginia, will those who are still looking for the anti-Romney coalesce around Ron Paul? Or are they not enamored of his brand of libertarian conservatism enough to choose him over Mitt?

Or is Virginia irrelevant? Their primary isn’t until March 6; will the GOP decide Mitt is the one after all, and start backing him as the presumptive nominee?

2

I think everything after South Carolina is going to be irrelevant. If Mitt wins there, he’s the nominee.

3

Mitt should do better in VA than he did in NH relative to Paul. So, no, Paul won’t beat Mitt. And like the Captain said, Mitt will likely have the nomination pretty much wrapped up by then anyway, giving him the big mo going in.

4

My reasoning was that voters that might have gone to Perry, Gingrich or Santorum might favor Paul if the “anti-Romney” feeling remains strong. I think it all depends on South Carolina to determine the resistance to Mitt.

5

No. Paul will be, is, and always has been completely insignificant.

6

He may top out at a certain level, but I wouldn’t call finishing 2nd in NH “insignificant”.

Fear: I doubt most of the supporters for the other candidates will go to Paul. His supporters tend to be pretty much already there. And VA has a significant number of military and retired military who would not share Paul’s views on defense.

7

If that happens, I wonder if Ron Paul could pick up some protest votes from people who know Romney is going to win, but want to send a message that they still aren’t happy with Mitt.

I’m not saying any of this will happen, I just find the two man race creates a dynamic we haven’t seen yet, and there are possible, if not likely, outcomes that could prove interesting. I don’t think anything is locked in stone at this point, though the smart money is on Romney. When is Florida? Is that before Virginia?

8

And Virginia has an open primary so that as in New Hampshire independents or Democrats can vote for him.

And none of it matters because he was, is, and will be insignificant.

Virginia is also irrelevant. It’s part of Super Tuesday. Romney will lock up the ballot then, and probably won’t be significantly challenged.


January 3, 2012	Iowa (caucus) – Results
January 10, 2012	New Hampshire (primary) – Results
January 21, 2012	South Carolina (primary)

January 31, 2012	Florida (primary)

February 4, 2012	Nevada (caucus)

February 4–11, 2012	Maine (caucus)

February 7, 2012	Colorado (caucus)
                        Minnesota (caucus)
                        Missouri (primary) – *See note below on Missouri

February 28, 2012	Arizona (primary)
                        Michigan (primary)

March 3, 2012	Washington (caucus)

March 6, 2012
(Super Tuesday)	

Alaska (caucus)
Georgia (primary)
Idaho (caucus)
Massachusetts (primary)
North Dakota (caucus)
Ohio (primary)
Oklahoma (primary)
Tennessee (primary)
Vermont (primary)
Virginia (primary)