You don’t take territory with missiles, shells and bombs. Any country faced with potential Russian invasion a month ago now has much more hope that such actions would be unsuccessful.
I don’t think anyone seriously under threat of such action was ever under any illusion about exactly how Russia prosecutes a war, but without doubt they will now think they were mistaken about how successful it would ultimately be.
No, you don’t take territory with missiles, shells, and bombs but you sure as hell can destroy it. And that’s why I have fears of WMD/NBC warfare - if Putin can’t have it he has a record of destroying it. You don’t gain territory with NBC, but you can deny the use of the territory to everyone.
There’s at least one option, although probably not very realistic. The west provides a secret offer to have a legitimate retirement, security provided by the western powers and whatever stuff money can buy that he wants. In return Putin agrees to have all Russian forces leaves Ukraine and Russia passes a law recognizing Ukraine as a sovereign nation and allowing it to join NATO. He also would have to agree to destroy the vast majority of Russian nukes and be left with a few hundred rather than the 6K or so they currently have. In exchange he won’t have to worry about going out the way Qaddafi, Hussein, Caecescu, etc. went out and his material comforts will be seen to.
That’s the only win / win left at this point that I can think of, and yes, I realize it’s not at all a realistic scenario.
I’m sure the western powers are thinking through lots of options and no doubt something like this will be mooted.
What I do wonder, and relevant to the names you mention, is exactly what example of history he is looking to that makes him think his course of action will leave him
a) alive
b) feted as a great leader.
I’m flicking through my Readers Digest bumper book of despots and tyrants and, to be honest, the end game for pretty much all of them is depressingly (or happily) familiar.
Agreed, and how would their destruction aid the Russian occupation?
A more likely scenario is the tactical use of filter penetrating gases against the small groups that are currently defeating Russian forces.
True enough. Basically, white people who have cities with spiffy glass high-rise buildings, designer stuff, in temperate and cold climates, aren’t supposed to do this sort of thing, to be cynical. Seeing refugees wearing North Face parkas is just wrong, wrong, wrong.
And I’m as guilty as anyone in being shocked that this happened btw.
Yes, I wonder that myself. Who does Putin think he will ultimately be compared with? Maybe a more successful Hitler? Or maybe Stalin, who was as much hated as he was feared, even within his own inner circle. Although his health was poor in his later years, there are credible suggestions that he may have been poisoned, possibly by the head of his own secret police.
The use of such WMD is likely one of the unstated red lines that would bring NATO directly into the war.
Putin has spent his career neutralizing that problem.
I’m not entirely sure if that last sentence refers to Stalin or Putin… there are rumors of Putin having poor health and if he did survive a poisoning attempt that could explain some things.
Except that in the past - such as in Syria - the West did nothing when poison gas was used against civilians. Why would Putin assume the West would react differently this time? Nukes, now - that might be a game changer but Putin’s experience is that he can get away with chemical warfare.
There’s a few that got to die of old age / natural causes. Stalin is probably at the top of Putin’s list. Then there’s the first two Kims of North Korea and Assad Sr. from Syria. I can’t think of any others off the top of my head. Of course the list of names on the other list are much longer, including the big one that I didn’t mention, Adolf Hitler.
Also possible. Or Russia could decide to go scorched earth to cripple Ukraine’s supply lines and efforts to rebuild.
It refers to Stalin – especially in light of new evidence discovered in 2003, suppressed from the official report on his death that is consistent with having been poisoned with something like warfarin …
Right- the West didn’t really give much of a shit when the Russians invaded Georgia or annexed the Crimea, so it wasn’t surprising that the lesson he learned was that the West won’t actually do anything, even if wars of conquest are a no-no in international relations these days.
And, I think that everyone on the Russian side was fully expecting the Ukrainian military to essentially collapse in the first few days, and they’d just roll them over and then divide the country/annex it/whatever at their leisure.
Neither of those turned out to be true; the West was not having this large-scale invasion at all, and has backed up the talk with serious business sanctions, and the Ukrainians are still fighting like hell for their homes and families.
The expectation at this point is that the lines will basically stabilize and the war will settle into a sort of stalemate condition until something happens- Ukraine pushes the Russians out, the Russians withdraw, or some sort of negotiated peace occurs. A negotiated peace could take a lot of forms though- it could be as minor as Ukraine giving up claims to the Crimea, all the way to demilitarization and the independence of Donetsk/Lugansk. That’s going to depend on how the stalemate period goes for both sides.
If there’s one thing that this senseless violent invasion has shown, it’s that the demilitarization of Ukraine has to be off the table, totally out of the question. The West is already beefing up its military spending, and so should Ukraine, with our help. You need the strongest possible military (and strong ties to your Western allies) when you have a well-armed insane tyrannical bully right next door.
Just read a report that the Ukrainians now have more tanks than they started with - thanks to farmers with tractors and probably capture/surrender of Russian troops. If this keeps up it may bode ill for the Russians. Actually, it probably already is.
Looks like the only way to demilitarize Ukraine is to keep Russia hardware out of Ukraine. But yes, they should absolutely be allowed to build whatever military they deem necessary. It’s been proven they have reason to fear their neighbor.
I still fear that if Putin can’t win in a conventional war he’ll uncork some evil to make sure no one can use that territory.
I wonder if those farmers are going to face retaliation at Russian hands if the Russians ever advance far enough to reach their farms and they are found to have Russian tanks in their barns.
Ukrainian civilians are already facing retaliation at Russian hands just for existing.
Absolutely. This war should sound the death knell for pacifism, disarmament, “butter not guns,” kumbaya, “can’t we all just get along”, demilitarization, “wouldn’t it be nice if we spent all that money on education and healthcare instead of killing each other” crowd. It’s a harsh lesson of realism: Just because you want peace doesn’t mean a thing if your neighbor aggressor doesn’t want peace.
Well, maybe, except it seems the farmers aren’t hanging onto those tanks, they’re either being returned to battle with Ukrainian colors or cannibalized for parts.
I doubt it would come to that; the Ukrainians are fighting too hard to just agree to give up their arms and leave their defense up to Russia. That’s one of the examples of things on the extreme far end of what could happen, not something anyone really expects to happen.