Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[BrightNShiny]

My guess is that we’ll soon see the Russians “diplomatically support” one or more breakaway countries in Eastern Ukraine, similar to the Georgian breakaways.

[Gukumatz]

@BrightNShiny

My guess is that we’ll soon see the Russians “diplomatically support” one or more breakaway countries in Eastern Ukraine, similar to the Georgian breakaways.

I’ll put 5 metaphorical dollars on Transdnistria in Moldova being the next target. It’s either that, or some form of re-integration or significantly increased bonds with Kazakhstan.

[Batistuta]

@Wakinyan

Sweden is not officially considering joining Nato.

You’re right, “officially” was the wrong adverb. What I meant is that its Deputy Prime Minister (Jan Björklund) has been more and more open about joining NATO since the Crimean crisis. If Russia keeps pursuing an expansionist foreign policy, I can only see the pro-NATO voices in Sweden becoming stronger.

[CarnalK]

@Gukumatz

I’ll put 5 metaphorical dollars on Transdnistria in Moldova being the next target.

That was brought up in one of the other threads as a NATO concern but it’s kinda ridiculous. Transdnistra has been effectively separated for twenty years and already hosts Russian troops. Any announcement of “support” would be wholly symbolic. Though I suppose everyone might still get worked up about it.

[XT]

So, it seems that Russia’s play book for the rest of the Ukraine might involve a number of spontaneous uprisings by ‘the people’ throughout the country (who, once they take over, declare they want a similar referendum as what happened in the Crimea, along with heartfelt calls for Russian peace keepers to please come in and help keep order and allow another 98% thumbs up to joining the Russian Federation), which the vicious Ukrainian’s would put down, and force the Russians to take steps with that army that just happens to be massed on the Ukraine’s borders (just there doing some innocent military exercises of course). Sounds like a crazy plan, but:

Russia warns of civil war if Ukraine uses force to quell eastern revolts

Kiev (CNN) – Russia warned Tuesday that any use of force in Ukraine’s eastern region could lead to civil war, as Kiev seeks to regain control after pro-Moscow uprisings in three cities.

Pro-Russian protesters seized government buildings in the three cities of Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv on Sunday. Rebels occupying Donetsk’s regional government building Monday declared a “people’s republic” and called for a referendum on secession from Ukraine to be held by May 11.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry said reports that the protesters are facing a crackdown by Ukrainian authorities are of particular concern.

“We are calling for the immediate cessation of any military preparations, which could lead to civil war,” it said in a statement on its website.

I love this part:

The ministry alleged that what it called “American experts from the private military organization Greystone,” disguised as soldiers, as well as militants from the Ukrainian far-right group Right Sector, had joined Ukrainian forces preparing for the crackdown in the country’s east.

All the bullet points on this one…Americans, disguised at soldiers along with far-right (read: fascist) groups cracking down on the people. That hits all the high points there.

Russia urges talks

Russia, which has tens of thousands of troops near the Ukrainian border, said Monday that it was “watching closely” what was unfolding and told Ukraine to stop blaming it for Ukrainian problems.

President Vladimir Putin’s government pushed Ukraine to set up a federal system in which regions with ethnic Russian majorities would have more autonomy, and its Foreign Ministry urged Ukraine to enter into talks over the issue.

“Ukrainian people want to get a clear answer from Kiev to all their questions. It’s time to listen to these legal claims,” a Foreign Ministry statement read. The Ukrainian government was acting “irresponsibly,” it said.

At a news conference Tuesday, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Moscow has proposed involving Ukrainian presidential candidates in Russian, U.S. and EU talks on Ukraine.

He insisted that representatives of southeast Ukraine take part, too, according to the Interfax news agency. He said Russia was ready for the talks, which may take place in 10 days.

Moscow dispatched thousands of troops to Crimea in support of a pro-Russian movement that seized power in the semi-autonomous region shortly after Yanukovych fled to Russia.

The Black Sea peninsula was then subsumed into Russia after a referendum denounced as illegal by Kiev and the West.

Russia has called Yanukovych’s removal a coup and says the interim government in Kiev is illegitimate. It has said it doesn’t intend to invade eastern Ukraine but reserves the right to protect ethnic Russians there.

To me, this is such an obvious set up that it’s hard to believe it’s true…or that the Russians are really this clumsy. Equally, however, it’s hard to believe that Russia isn’t behind the chaos going on throughout the Ukraine, especially when the groups are small but highly motivated enough to succeed in taking over key installations but not large enough to follow through, and they call themselves ‘the peoples’ whatever…and immediately call for similar referendums as the Crimea did AND call for Russian troops to come in for peace keeping (read: prevent the Ukrainians from doing anything similar to what they did in the Crimea).

[Mogle]

@Batistuta

You’re right, “officially” was the wrong adverb. What I meant is that its Deputy Prime Minister (Jan Björklund) has been more and more open about joining NATO since the Crimean crisis. If Russia keeps pursuing an expansionist foreign policy, I can only see the pro-NATO voices in Sweden becoming stronger.

Meh, I wouldn’t read too much into it, Björklund and his party was always in favour of joining NATO, the current crisis just gives him an excuse to drag the issue into the spotlight.
But, yes, recent events have caused a fair amount of debate regarding our defensive capabilities.

[Little_Nemo]

@Gukumatz

I’ll put 5 metaphorical dollars on Transdnistria in Moldova being the next target. It’s either that, or some form of re-integration or significantly increased bonds with Kazakhstan.

Kazakhstan would be a bad move at the moment. Russia already has America and Western Europe riled up. The last thing they should be doing is expanding into Central Asia and getting China worked up. If China decides to make common cause with the NATO powers, Russia will be left in a very precarious position.

So the safer move would be either Belarus or the Caucasus region.

[BrainGlutton]

Now the Russians are saying that any “use of force” by the Ukrainian government to put down pro-Moscow uprisings in three eastern cities could lead to civil war.

And you Russians know that, better than the Ukrainian government does, how, exactly? Because it’s part of your filed plan?