Will Taiwan be designated as a Major Non-NATO Ally in the near future?

After years of supporting the US in countering China, Taiwan has demonstrated its cooperation with the US and NATO in Asia. Will it stand a chance to be designated as a Major Non-NATO Ally?

For the forseeable future I don’t really see the benefit for NATO, Taiwan or the PRC for NATO to even recognize Taiwan as an independent nation.

Agreed. The best-case scenario vis-a-vis the PRC and ROC, for everyone involved, is to just hope that everything stays exactly the same as it is right now forever.

I think “years of supporting the US in countering China” is a massive misstatement of what Taiwan has been doing for the last 70 years.

Basically Taiwan has moved from “will recover mainland China” to “will maintain our independence”. They’ve recently been presenting themselves as a liberal, and democratic state worthy of recognition all while trying not to provoke Chinese nationalists from ratcheting up the war drums for invasion.

Two things:

  1. Cooperation with NATO in Asia is pretty much an oxymoron. NATO has no interests in Asia and no members in Asia. Its printed right on the tin, North Atlantic. Individual NATO member states have interests outside of the scope of Europe and North America, but NATO as an organization has none. Article 5 can only be invoked in the event of an attack on a member state occurring within the geographic limits of Europe and North America. Thats why, for example, the Argentinian seizure of the Falkland Islands from the UK in 1982 didn’t and couldn’t trigger Article 5.
  1. Taiwan already is a de facto Major Non-NATO Ally, and has been since 2003. Wiki:

When Congress enacted on September 30, 2002, the Foreign Relations Authorization Act for FY 2003, it required that Taiwan be “treated as though it were designated a major non-NATO ally.”[14] Despite some initial misgivings about Congress’s perceived intrusion into the President’s foreign affairs authority, the Bush administration subsequently submitted a letter to Congress on August 29, 2003, designating Taiwan as a major non-NATO ally.[14]

USC:

Treatment of Taiwan Relating to Transfers of Defense Articles and Defense Services

Pub. L. 107–228, div. B, title XII, §1206, Sept. 30, 2002, 116 Stat. 1428 , provided that: “Notwithstanding any other provision of law, for purposes of the transfer or possible transfer of defense articles or defense services under the Arms Export Control Act (22 U.S.C. 2751 et seq.), the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961 (22 U.S.C. 2151 et seq.), or any other provision of law, Taiwan shall be treated as though it were designated a major non-NATO ally (as defined in section 644(q) of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961 (22 U.S.C. 2403(q))[)].”

And Taiwan cannot be an official anything in US foreign policy without first being recognized as a de jure sovereign state, which would kick off its own world conflict event

I guess Taiwan is in a situation of catch-22 and only survives in the status quo for as long as possible before being seized by its rising neighbor. Seems a small “state” like Taiwan has no choice but to exist at the mercy of superpowers…

This.

Signing any official international agreement with Taiwan would be acknowledging Taiwan as a fellow nation. And that would cause problems for both Taiwan and the other nations signing the agreement that would outweigh the benefits of any agreement.

I don’t feel Taiwan’s prospects are as bleak as that. Taiwan appears to be a pretty stable country. Whereas China, on the other hand, has some serious issues. Barring a Chinese invasion of Taiwan (which admittedly is a real possibility) I’d say Taiwan is likely to outlast the communist regime on the mainland.

According to the realist school of political science, the global political system is essentially anarchic; there is no ultimate global legal authority. Realists see a world governed by the law of the jungle. I hate to admit that, but hard power will win in the end.

But Taiwan already knows that which is why they’re happy to be an American foreign policy arm without wanting or needing actual recognition.

Well, this sounds not so great.

China has warned of “strong measures” if the US insisted on “having its own way” by going through with a visit by Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan.

In a statement on Thursday, China’s foreign ministry responded to reports that the US House of Representatives speaker was set to visit Taipei city next week by saying any such visit would severely impact US-Chinese relations.