Territorial brinkmanship in the South China Sea has crossed a new line. Chinese vessels made physical contact with — some reporters are using the term “rammed” — Filipino vessels. The US is deploying in response.
This is a no-middle-ground dispute. China says the sea is China’s, and will defend against what it defines as incursion. Everyone else (or nearly) says “no, it isn’t, and you have no right to do that.”
What’s the endgame?
Seems to me that war is sometimes defined by an invitation to conflict, which is either accepted or declined. In this case, China may push its claim with increasing aggression, to the point that a military response is obliged, believing that they are calling the West’s bluff as to its rhetoric. The West (meaning primarily the US) will then decide whether to allow its bluff to be called, surrendering to Chinese demands, or to back up its rhetoric with real action, leading to escalation.
I don’t feel like I know enough about this to have an opinion, and I’d like to open the floor to better-informed views.
If it was a deliberate ramming, what’s their endgame? Keep poking the bear, so to speak, until we either make a bigger move or there’s a change in leadership in the US that might respond differently? How much slack do they have before a real confrontation? I’m likewise no expert but I’m also curious what others think.
I think that China continually pushes boundaries, just like Russia does. They’re deliberately doing this to see where the Filipino/US response will land and what they can get away with. They know the Filipinos aren’t going to start a war, but they don’t really know how far and how firm our support for their territorial claims are.
I doubt they’re trying to start a war; that wouldn’t be advantageous for anyone involved. But they’re absolutely willing to push to see where the boundaries are, and how far they can be pushed.
That’s the complicated and dangerous part. “Pushing the boundary” in this situation is literally asking, “Does this start a war? Does this start a war? Does this start a war?”
I only have time for the quick reply that it’s nothing new; back in 2001 a US EP-3 was intercepted by Chinese fighters, one of them collided with it causing the Chinese jet to be lost and forcing the EP-3 to conduct an emergency landing in China. Hainan Island incident - Wikipedia.
It’s been happening a lot again recently, more so than was previously acknowledged.
I think that right now, it’s more like “Does this start a war?” , until Uncle Sam says “Do something like that again, and it will start a war.”
We do the same thing to them, FWIW. We regularly do “freedom of navigation” operations in the South China Sea. In other words, the Chinese claim all that seven-dash line area as their territorial waters, but we (the US and UK in particular) deliberately sail warships through it, staying just outside of the actual maritime boundaries for such things. That’s us saying “So… this is what you say is Chinese territorial waters. Are you willing to fire on a US destroyer to prove it?”
I don’t know because there is no logic to this. At this point, we are buying a huge amount of goods from China. We are of definite benefit to them economically. They would prefer a dangerous and destabilizing war instead?
I bet the Philippines really regrets kicking the US military out of Subic Bay and Clark Airforce base.
China claims a huge swath of the Pacific. The big challenge is that China (along with Taiwan, Viet Nam, Malaysia, Indonesia and Borneo, plus possibly Cambodia, and Singapore) lay claim to various parts of the Pacific.
And closer to home, in the northeast, there is a group of islands administered by Japan, but also claimed by China and Taiwan. Here is Wikipedia’s take
No, I don’t think it will lead to war but accidents can happen.
